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The Reaper
08-02-2007, 08:35
Does the MSM get it?

Look at their declining revenues, viewers, and subscribers.

TR

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2007/08/poll_surprises_outoftouch_pape.html

August 02, 2007
Poll Surprises Out-of-Touch Paper
By Debra Saunders

When a New York Times poll found that the number of Americans who think it was right for the United States to go to war in Iraq rose from 35 percent in May to percent 42 percent in mid-July, rather than promptly report the new poll findings, the paper conducted another poll. As the Times' Janet Elder wrote Sunday, the increased support for the decision to go to war was "counterintuitive" and because it "could not be easily explained, the paper went back and did another poll on the very same subject."

Round Two found that 42 percent of voters think America was right to go into Iraq, while the percentage of those polled who said that it was wrong to go to war had fallen from 61 percent to 51 percent. The headline for Elder's piece read, "Same Question, Different Answer. Hmmm." But it should have read: "America's Paper of Record Out of Touch With American Public."

Elder wrote that growing support for the war seemed odd: "Once in a while a poll finding doesn't make sense." It occurred as Congress was debating the war and the Bush administration had to report that Iraq had failed to meet a number of benchmarks for progress.

Too true. But at the same time, U.S. Ambassador to Iraq Ryan Crocker and Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari had begun warning the public of the consequences of a premature withdrawal. Brass serving in Iraq were explaining why they wanted more time to let the surge work, as they were making inroads in fighting insurgents and winning support from the Iraqi public. Most important: President Bush had responded to criticism of the administration's erstwhile undermanned whack-a-mole Iraq strategy, which had depressed U.S. troop morale, by putting Gen. David Petraeus in charge of Iraq and implementing his nuanced counterinsurgency and no-retreat surge plan.

To assume that this change in leadership made no difference is tantamount to admitting that the criticism of the Bush administration's policies was designed more to hurt Bush than to win the war. (Be it noted, many San Francisco Bay Area readers are so averse to the idea of victory that they will challenge me to define it. That's because they do not want to imagine an Iraq in which citizens are secure, Iraqi forces operational and U.S. troops can begin to withdraw without fearing genocide.)

While the Petraeus strategy does not quite bolster the decision to go into Iraq -- Elder noted that, oddly, the poll did not find a change in voter approval of Bush' handling of the war -- war polling always has been problematic.

Consider the July 13-15 Rasmussen poll that asked likely voters if it is "possible for the U.S. to win the war in Iraq": 32 percent answered yes, 54 percent no. Yet when asked if Washington should wait until September before making major changes in Iraq, 51 percent said yes, 38 percent said no. If voters really thought the war cannot be won, they would not want to wait until September.

On Monday, the Times also ran an opinion piece, "A War We Just Might Win," by war critics Michael O'Hanlon and Kenneth Pollack of the Brookings Institution, which has prompted Beltway biggies to notice that the surge is paying off.

Well, not everyone inside the Beltway. Rep. Jack Murtha, D-Pa., dismissed the piece as "rhetoric." "I don't know what they saw, but I know this, that it's not getting better," Murtha told CNN. Since this war began, there always have been people rooting for failure.

With the death toll of U.S. troops surpassing 3,560, Americans have cause to be wary and distressed. They may tell pollsters that they are pessimistic, but that does not mean that they are prepared to lose.

dsaunders@sfchronicle.com

rubberneck
08-02-2007, 08:53
Polls piss me off.

When I was an undergraduate at the University of Wisconsin I took a course that dealt with polling and polling methodology. The professor was a former pollster for the DNC. To teach how easily a poll could be manipulated he gave half the class 20 straight forward questions regarding the job performance of the Reagan administration (this was in the fall of 1988), and the other half the same 20 questions but worded much differently. He generated 1000 names randomly from the telephone book for each group to call and survey.

IIRC The group with the first set of 20 questions came away with an approval rating somewhere in the 60's and the second group in the low 30's. Same questions different wording. In other words polls a very easy to manipulate to generate a preordained outcome.

Fast forward 20 years and the news media now report polling data as an accurate reflection of reality. Groups like the Times decide on their point of view, they hire a pollster who formulates the questions in a manner likely to get the expected response and then the Times reports it as news. It is just another tool that the media uses to advance their agenda. The fact that they were surprised enough that they had to re-run the poll tells me all I need to know about the methodology used by the Times pollsters.

The Reaper
08-02-2007, 09:13
There have been several articles about this lately.

One dealt with the POTUS low approval numbers.

Clearly, if your sample is not carefully managed, you will get false results.

The example the other article cited was that the pollster chose a smaller sample of registered Republicans than would be representative of the U.S. population. IIRC, it was 20% Repubs, vs. the national average of 30%.

The over-representation of Dems and under-representation of Repubs lead to about 10 points lower approval ratings than would be expected for a national referendum on this subject.

I have recently been watching the polling for Republican POTUS candidates at RCP. Yesterday, there were six polls shown with Thompson and Giuliani competing. Three showed numbers with the two virtually tied (two had G up by 1%, the other had T up by 1%), and the other three had G with a 10 point lead, or more. How can there be such disparity unless they are not following the same methodology?

We have to look at polls with a jaundiced eye, examining motivation (as with the NY Times, above) and methodology.

TR

rubberneck
08-02-2007, 09:31
Sadly, a majority of people in this country are totally naive to how easily polls can be manipulated and accept poll results as a snapshot of reality. It is driving public policy in Iraq right now and will play a large role in who wins the next election.

x-factor
08-02-2007, 16:47
It seems to me that public opinion (and by extension Congressional rhetoric) is about 6-8 months behind actual events. Its been about that long since the Bush administration substantively adjusted course (Gates replaced Rumsfeld, Petraeus and Crocker take charge, the troop surge started, etc). It will be very interesting to see if public opinion continues to come around and if the Congress (Blue Dog Democrats, i'm looking at you) follows.