Where's Bin Ladin?

[The Reaper]

My vote is that first he was hiding, now he is dead.

I believe that the last confirmed contact with him was April of 2003, when an arrested al-Qaeda leader, Tawfiq bin Attash, disclosed having met him in the Khost province of Afghanistan three months earlier. Where is he now? I believe in an unmarked grave.

Anyone have any indication or sign of him that can be confirmed since then? That is a personal live sighting, not a recycled old videotape or statement on his behalf by al-Zawahiri.

Why would he not have made a statement or appearance in over four years if he were still alive? Al-Zawahiri has made plenty.

Thoughts?:munchin

TR

[rubberneck]

I obviously don't know for sure, but I find it very interesting that we never hear from him. It is always number 2's mug on those propaganda video's. Where is the big guy?

IMHO he is dead and neither side waill admit it. AQ would lose a powerful icon that brings them a ton of "street cred", and our government, after being burned at the stake for relying on faulty intel, will not announce that he is dead until they confirm his remains through DNA.

[JMI]

I was reading the article of Zawahiri's latest video, and they kept referring to him as the #2 member of AQ. I kept thinking #2? Where's #1? I think he is dead simply because of the silence.

[x-factor]

If he were dead, there'd be no way for AQ to contain the news or the infighting. I think he hasn't been on TV because AQ has not had any substantial victories to crow about and they don't want UBL's imaged mired in the day-to-day stuff.

In American electoral politics we have the tradition of "VP as hatchetman" meaning on the campaign trail the Presidential candidate sticks to a rosey positive message while the VP goes hard negative on the other candidate (Eisenhower-Nixon was the quintessential example of this). I think what AQ is doing is kind of the same thing. Most of what Zawahiri does these days is talk trash (and equivocate about the battlefield pastings they're taking) on Iraq and Afghanistan and criticize other Muslims (he loves to scold Hamas) for not carrying out jihad in an "appropriate manner".

They take a longer view of the conflict and they want to preserve UBL as a larger-than-life "unifying symbol of victory for all Muslims" and to do that they can't be trotting him out every month to take out the garbage. If there's a spectacular attack or somekind of battlefield "success" for AQ, then I think you'll see UBL again.

[82ndtrooper]

If his kidney's didn't finally give out, expecially without dialysis, then He's been killed and in an unmarked grave as TR mentions.

It's interesting though how "quite" those that are captured, and may know have been about his where abouts or death.

Just when we discontinued "water boarding" ..............or not ?:munchin

[lksteve]

toes up in a cave somewhere...

[HOLLiS]

My vote is that he made a rodent family very happy, by providing them with dinner for a while.

[Trip_Wire (RIP)]

If he were dead, there'd be no way for AQ to contain the news or the infighting. I think he hasn't been on TV because AQ has not had any substantial victories to crow about and they don't want UBL's imaged mired in the day-to-day stuff.

In American electoral politics we have the tradition of "VP as hatchetman" meaning on the campaign trail the Presidential candidate sticks to a rosey positive message while the VP goes hard negative on the other candidate (Eisenhower-Nixon was the quintessential example of this). I think what AQ is doing is kind of the same thing. Most of what Zawahiri does these days is talk trash (and equivocate about the battlefield pastings they're taking) on Iraq and Afghanistan and criticize other Muslims (he loves to scold Hamas) for not carrying out jihad in an "appropriate manner".

They take a longer view of the conflict and they want to preserve UBL as a larger-than-life "unifying symbol of victory for all Muslims" and to do that they can't be trotting him out every month to take out the garbage. If there's a spectacular attack or somekind of battlefield "success" for AQ, then I think you'll see UBL again.

I tend to agree with your thought train here. I wish the 'SOB ' was dead and buried in a Pig's skin somewhere ... but I doubt he's dead.

[JMI]

They take a longer view of the conflict and they want to preserve UBL as a larger-than-life "unifying symbol of victory for all Muslims" and to do that they can't be trotting him out every month to take out the garbage. If there's a spectacular attack or somekind of battlefield "success" for AQ, then I think you'll see UBL again.
Can you tell me the last time you saw him on Video? And if they do not have any victories to crow about, isn't now the time for OBL to "gather the flock?"
Every month? What has it been, 40+ months?

[Ambush Master]

I'm with TR, but if he is still alive.........I think that he has been holed up in China and if dead, was hiding up there also!!! While we can work with the Pakis, we could never get China to allow us in!!

[x-factor]

Can you tell me the last time you saw him on Video?

If I'm not mistaken, his last video was June 2006. It was 19 minutes commenting on the death of Zarqawi. "The banner of Islam will be passed to another lion" or something like that.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/low/middle_east/5131818.stm

And if they do not have any victories to crow about, isn't now the time for OBL to "gather the flock?"

No battlefield victories, by that I mean no cases where they can say they stood and fought Americans and won (by any measure).

They must certainly view the disunified state of American politics and the general negative impression of Iraq as a strategic victory. He's probably waiting to see how the surge and the American election process play out too.

What has it been, 40+ months?

13, see above.

[Pete]

If I'm not mistaken, his last video was June 2006. It was 19 minutes commenting on the death of Zarqawi....
13, see above.

It was not a video of him, just a recording. The only thing shown of him was a still picture.

He's worm dirt.

You can't prove a negative so "Until he stands up in a video with today's paper he's worm dirt".

[x-factor]

The voice in the video was reported as "confirmed." Still, your point is valid. The last time he was seen moving on tape was October 2004 (so 33 months or so). Since then its been all audio messages (none in 2005, 4 in 2006, none since).

Certainly its possible he's dead, but he's gone long periods between statements before so I think Occam's Razor is more on the side of "alive and waiting."

[2018commo]

I suspect we will know what happened to Tony Soprano before we know what happened to this yard bird. He did create an Islamic version of the Borg Collective. They seem to be able to procreate themselves without him. A family member who was near Tora-Bora claims he never survived that attack, he walked the walk and I believe him.

[Five-O]

If he were dead, there'd be no way for AQ to contain the news or the infighting. I think he hasn't been on TV because AQ has not had any substantial victories to crow about and they don't want UBL's imaged mired in the day-to-day stuff.

In American electoral politics we have the tradition of "VP as hatchetman" meaning on the campaign trail the Presidential candidate sticks to a rosey positive message while the VP goes hard negative on the other candidate (Eisenhower-Nixon was the quintessential example of this). I think what AQ is doing is kind of the same thing. Most of what Zawahiri does these days is talk trash (and equivocate about the battlefield pastings they're taking) on Iraq and Afghanistan and criticize other Muslims (he loves to scold Hamas) for not carrying out jihad in an "appropriate manner".

They take a longer view of the conflict and they want to preserve UBL as a larger-than-life "unifying symbol of victory for all Muslims" and to do that they can't be trotting him out every month to take out the garbage. If there's a spectacular attack or somekind of battlefield "success" for AQ, then I think you'll see UBL again.

My .02c,

Understand the above train of thought but I think it is "over thinking" the issue. While the news media does not mention it....we kick the crap out of AQ every bloody day. The American public does not know this but AQ sure as hell does. Given that the The Arab culture is so very patriarchal and so focused on the father figure, it would seem highly unlikely that UBL would not have made an attempt to rally the true believers to the cause and urge on the terrorist cowards. Couple that with a deteriorating renal condition, his inability (assumed) to seek proper medical care and the intense pressure we are putting on him...to me it adds up to UBL is dead. If you have never seen a renal patient...most needing dialysis are extremely sick people.

[The Reaper]

I think that once the next POTUS is installed, I will be very surprised if he is heard from again with a confirmed voiceprint referring to current events.

If we denied he was alive, claimed that he had was dead, he would have to reappear to deny it.

I do not think it could damage our credibility further, and if he were alive, it might be more intel or another opportunity to take him out.

TR

[x-factor]

I think that once the next POTUS is installed, I will be very surprised if he is heard from again with a confirmed voiceprint referring to current events.

I'd actually go a step further and say that I'd be surprised if he doesn't try to shake our cage during the 2008 election season like he did in 2004.

[The Dave]

I'm going with the dead option. With the dialysis and unlikelihood that he's getting the treatment he would need, that alone leads to me to think he's muerte. On top of that, his lack of any apppearances on video.

[JMI]

Still, your point is valid. The last time he was seen moving on tape was October 2004 (so 33 months or so).

So I was 7 mos off. Still been a long time. Considering he was in video quite a bit after 9/11, I assume he is either dead, or not doing very well.

[The Reaper]

I'd actually go a step further and say that I'd be surprised if he doesn't try to shake our cage during the 2008 election season like he did in 2004.

That could be true, if he is alive.

I wonder how many voted for President Bush after OBL backed Kerry?

I do not think that he got the outcome he wanted, but could he have made a difference in getting the POTUS re-elected?

Does an attack on the US, threats, or violent rhetoric by terrorists favor the Dems chances, or the Repubs?

TR

[x-factor]

That could be true, if he is alive.

I wonder how many voted for President Bush after OBL backed Kerry?

I dso not think that he got the outcome he wanted, but could he have made a difference in getting the POTUS re-elected?

Does an attack on the US, threats, or violent rhetoric by terrorists favor the Dems chances, or the Repubs?

The polls showed that Bush got a bump after the Bin Laden video came out, but I've never seen any electoral analysis call it decisive.

Its a bit of a stretch to say UBL backed Kerry. He did bash Bush pretty vociferously (including on the "my pet goat" Michael Moore line), but he must have considered that might have the reverse effect of helping Bush, so who can say what he was actually trying to do. I think he was probably just trying to sow dissension on all sides. In anycase what he said in addressing "the American people" was neither candidate can protect you, only by total withdrawal from Muslim affairs can you achieve security.

Its hard to say who he would have preferred win in 2004. Its true that Kerry wanted out of Iraq which would have given UBL a major victory but Kerry was also promising to step up operations in AF/PK which UBL might have viewed as a threat (if he put any credence in it). In any case he knew Kerry's election wouldn't have resulted in a full US withdrawal from Islamic lands. I think UBL likes having Bush as President for a couple reasons. Bush because of his straight ahead demeanor (for better and worse) is easier to paint as a zealous "Crusader" which reinforce's UBL's self/public image as a Muslim savoir and helps rally the Muslim world to AQ's cause. Plus Bush has been such a divisive figure in Europe (partly through his own doing, partly through the Europeans' own ridiculousness) that it benefits an AQ divide-and-conquer strategy. Honestly, I think UBL probably viewed the 2004 election as a win-win scenario.

Jihadists generally operate under the assumption that the longer the war goes, the better off they are (regardless of how many individual battles they lose) because they are fighting the "good fight" and so their victory is inevitable. So in some ways I think they view Bush as a guy who plays into their hands by keeping after them. You can hear this in the contemptuous way Zawahiri taunts Bush (like inviting him for a drink at the Iraqi Parliament cafeteria after the bombing)...in some ways, they want him to keep coming because they think thats how they're going to break us.

I think the jihadi strategic blindspot is for the adaptability of the American character. They don't realize that we're not the type of people who just keep blindly moving forward (like the Russians), we're going to find new ideas and better solutions as fast as we can. I think Bush's perseverance in Iraq may actually end up carrying the day by buying time for that quality to come out...so they may have thought they wanted Bush, but they may have been wrong.

As for the domestic side of it...I'm not sure which side, if any, is helped by the perception of threat. People still think of Democrats as soft on national security, but after Iraq alot of them think of Republicans as incompetent. It'll probably come down to a judgement of the individual candidate.

[rubberneck]

If he were dead, there'd be no way for AQ to contain the news or the infighting. I think he hasn't been on TV because AQ has not had any substantial victories to crow about and they don't want UBL's imaged mired in the day-to-day stuff.

The last known video tape showing OBL was released on October 29th 2004 just a few weeks prior to our general elections. Since then AQ has pulled off two rather large mass murders in Bali (10/1/05) and London (7/7/05). To say that AQ has had no big victories to crow about since the last known video tape is flat out wrong.

[x-factor]

The last known video tape showing OBL was released on October 29th 2004 just a few weeks prior to our general elections. Since then AQ has pulled off two rather large mass murders in Bali (10/1/05) and London (7/7/05). To say that AQ has had no big victories to crow about since the last known video tape is flat out wrong.

Which would explain why there were four Bin Laden audio statements in early 2006 when they had momentum, but none since Zarqawi's death.

Your argument only works if you believe the audiostatements are not actually UBL. That is not unthinkable, but I disagree.

[rubberneck]

Which would explain why there were four Bin Laden audio statements in early 2006 when they had momentum, but none since Zarqawi's death.

Your argument only works if you believe the audio statements are not actually UBL. That is not unthinkable, but I disagree.

Why audio and not video? Number two never has any problems getting his ugly mug on video, but OBL can't get it done. It is harder to fake audio and video than it is to fake audio alone.

You would think that the head of AQ couldn't pass up the chance to rub our noses in it after those two operations and yet we only got poor quality audio tapes in an era of readily available high fidelity audio eqiupment. You can't swing a dead cat in that region without hitting a cheap knockoff MP3 player and computer, but the head of the worlds largest terror group is using reel to reel recording equipment. If it looks like a duck, walks like at duck and quacks like a duck, chances are it is a duck not an elephant.

[x-factor]

There's any number of reasons that he might have preferred audio statements in 2006. In anycase, like I said, its not unthinkable that he's dead and the audio statements are faked, but I don't think its the case.

[2018commo]

That could be true, if he is alive.

I wonder how many voted for President Bush after OBL backed Kerry?

I do not think that he got the outcome he wanted, but could he have made a difference in getting the POTUS re-elected?

Does an attack on the US, threats, or violent rhetoric by terrorists favor the Dems chances, or the Repubs?

TR
I believe it depends who enriches the media enough to make it to the main event, could help Rudy or Obama and I kind of expect Clinton and Thompson to implode.
On the way home today, I was thinking it was time to re-read "The Rise and Fall of an American Army". Do you think we might see a jihadist version of Tet prior to the election?

[JMI]

There's any number of reasons that he might have preferred audio statements in 2006.
Besides being dead, what do you think are some of those reasons?

[The Reaper]

Do you think we might see a jihadist version of Tet prior to the election?

Funny you should ask.

Or is Petraeus just hedging his bets?

TR

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,288534,00.html

Gen. David Petraeus: Expect Big Strikes From Al Qaeda
Saturday , July 07, 2007

BAQOUBA, Iraq —

Sunni extremists are likely to try a series of high-profile attacks to grab the headlines ahead of a watershed report to Congress in September on political and military progress in Iraq, the top U.S. commander said Saturday.

"We expect they will try this — pull off a variety of sensational attacks and grab the headlines to create a `mini-Tet,"' Gen. David Petraeus said in an interview with The Associated Press.

He was referring to the 1968 Viet Cong and North Vietnamese Tet offensive that undermined public support for the Vietnam War in the United States. The offensive failed to achieve most of its tactical goal but it shattered political support for the Vietnam War among the U.S. public.

Petraeus and U.S. Ambassador Ryan Crocker are to present a report to Congress by Sept. 15 on the situation in Iraq. Several Republicans say if progress is not made by then, they may call for a new strategy in Iraq.

The general would not say what he and Crocker plan to tell Congress in the report.

But he added that the two top American officials in Iraq "have a responsibility to produce our assessment of the implications" of "different options."

He would not elaborate, but other U.S. generals have warned in recent weeks against drawing down American troops too rapidly before Iraqi security forces can cope.

Petraeus would not say what measures he would take to prevent a spate of spectacular attacks. He spoke at a U.S. base, Camp Warhorse, on the edge of Baqouba, which had been the self-declared capital of the Al Qaeda front group, the Islamic State of Iraq.

On Saturday, a homicide truck bomber hit an outdoor market, killing and wounding dozens, in the Shiite town of Armili, 100 kilometers (60 miles) of Baqouba. The night before, a homicide bomber hit a funeral in a Kurdish Shiite village northeast of Baqouba, killing 22.

The attacks suggested Al Qaeda militants and other Sunni insurgents have moved further north, to avoid U.S. troops and strike where security is weaker.

U.S. troops have gone on the offensive in Baqouba, 55 kilometers (35 miles) northeast of Baghdad and have gained control of the western half of the city.

U.S. forces have also launched an offensive in areas south of Baghdad, where Al Qaeda and other Sunni insurgents are believed to rig car bombs that strike in the capital.

If U.S. troops can drive the extremists away from strategic areas around Baghdad, they hope to minimize attacks in the capital that draw international attention.

Petraeus said there had been progress in restoring stability in some areas of the country, notably Anbar where Sunni sheiks have turned against Al Qaeda. Last weekend, U.S. troops killed 35 insurgents in what commanders believe was an attempt reinfiltrate Ramadi, the Anbar provincial capital, where extremist attacks have dropped sharply.

At the national government, however, reconciliation efforts among Sunni, Shiite and Kurdish politicians have faltered because of deep differences on power-sharing. Some of the issues, including sharing oil wealth and regional powers, are at the core of the Iraq conflict.

Last year's wave of sectarian killings, which escalated after the February 2006 bombing of a Shiite mosque in Samarra "really tore the fabric" of Iraqi society, Petraeus said.

"At the national level, progress to foster true reconciliation is still a work in progress," Petraeus said. "In some respects we should recognize that these issues are fundamental, that they are doing it in an environment shaped by very bad sectarian violence" last year.

[x-factor]

JMI - Maybe there's no video crews in the media arm that they trust enough to bring to a meeting with UBL. Maybe UBL is alive but looking a little weathered and they don't want him to be perceived as weakening. Maybe UBL doesn't want to go back on camera until he's got something really big to say.

Lots of maybes...

[2018commo]

[QUOTE=The Reaper]Funny you should ask.

Or is Petraeus just hedging his bets?

TR

I think he might be more afraid of having the carpet pulled out from underneath of him. Which takes us to your other post, are we hearing the truth? I suspect we are not, but without sand in my boots, its just a guess.

[The Reaper]

Okay, put yourself in command of AQ and examine the alternatives.

1. The Boss is dead and you can decide what to do.

Do you announce it and provide the facts, announce it but tamper with the facts to make him a martyr, or hide the death altogether?

Which would generate the best response from your remaining followers and supporters?

Which would be least beneficial to your enemy?

2. Bin Laden is alive.

Why would you use him (or not) in videos?

Again, what advantages would you see among your supporters for each alternative?

Why would you not show him off to your enemy?

Why would you use his voice in audio tapes, but not put him in videos any longer?

FWIW, I do not buy the lack of technical video support. Previous tapes were shot with comcorders and I am sure that they are not unavailable to a multiimillionaire in Pakistan, or wherever he might be.

TR

[HOLLiS]

IMHO, it is in the best interest of AQ to present UBL as being alive.

"See the great US can not catch one man, they can not kill one man, Allah is with us."


Even the anti-war critics recite the mantra, "The Great US can not catch one man, WTH?" Which adds to micro managing the war, "See Bush is incompetence, he can not catch UBL", "Bush lied about AQ, or he would be chasing UBL." AQ and the anti-war crowd would probably both gain if more resources were diverted to find UBL.

I think the answer lies partially in the anti-war movement on the seeing the benefits of keeping UBL "alive". For all practical purpose UBL is out of the game either way.

[NousDefionsDoc]

The ELN managed to keep the death of Cura Perez a secret for almost 8 months - until they worked out succession.

We didn't know for sure about Carlitos for quite a while either.

We need a body.

[APLP]

I am thinking someone hit him with a Le Mas round.

[x-factor]

1. The Boss is dead and you can decide what to do.

First, I think you might be mirror imaging. You're assuming that AQ is even capable of an orderly transition of power (presumably to Zawahiri or Mullah Omar). That may not necessarily be the case, certainly not in the Western sense anyway. Islamic history is replete with organizations (the Caliphate not the least of them) that were completely unable to deal with leadership succession. They're not a military organization, not exactly anyway, the chain of command is more liquid.

This is one of the main reasons I think he's still alive. If he died, I'm fairly certain there'd be some infighting and politicking during the transition and that they wouldn't be able to keep that quiet.

I think the only way the could manage an orderly transition is if Bin Laden established a line of succession in an indisputable public statement. Its not unlikely that if he does die, the way the world will here of it is in the release of a video combining his last orders, a heartfelt eulogy by his successor, and a exhortation to carry on.

That said, because your question is really interesting, I'll stipulate an orderly transition and continue.

Do you announce it and provide the facts, announce it but tamper with the facts to make him a martyr, or hide the death altogether?

Which would generate the best response from your remaining followers and supporters?

Which would be least beneficial to your enemy?

You're assuming that if UBL dies of natural causes it can't be spun as an AQ victory. He's being hunted by the entire world (more or less) and has been for a long time now, but he dies peacefully in his own bed...

"Our beloved Sheik was hidden and protected by the hand of Allah, who kept the infidels Americans and the apostates in Afghanistan and Pakistan at bay! Verily they may fill the sky with aircraft and bring armies to defile Muslim lands but they were no match for Allah who is master of all strategems and only who's service can victory be found. And so Usama Bin Laden lived as long as Allah decreed, for no other way is possible, no matter what the infidel Bush should say!"

As for the succession issue, they'll probably do something to parallel what Abu Bakr said when he took over leadership when Mohammed died: "If anyone worshipped Muhammad, let them know that Muhammad is dead, but if anyone worshipped God, then let them know that God is living and cannot die."

Its always easier to spin the truth than to hide it with a lie. By admitting Bin Laden is dead and being proactive about their message they're selling the idea that AQ is not a cult of personality or a fly-by-night gang of thugs, that it is a long-term institution and the true successor to the Caliphate. It gives the Muslim world, with all their discontentments, something really big and powerful to believe in. That is a potentially powerful uniter for their base and a show of strength for those that might be on the fence about joining them.

The worst thing for AQ is to try and hide his death and get caught. Then they look weak and cultish which is going to cost them followers and prompt a splintering of the organization.

2. Bin Laden is alive.

Why would you use him (or not) in videos?

Again, what advantages would you see among your supporters for each alternative?

Why would you not show him off to your enemy?

Why would you use his voice in audio tapes, but not put him in videos any longer?

I sort of answered this in my first post, but I'll add one thing. More than anything, AQ wants to avoid appearing irrelevant or undignified. When UBL speaks they want it to be a nearly religious-level event. If they keep putting out UBL statements when he doesn't really have anything to say, then they're throwing UBL's cache away, they're cheapening his image. Zawahiri and the American guy can take care of the day-to-day statements taunting Bush, calling for Musharraf's head, and scolding other Muslim groups. Thats just scut work. Its the same reason why the US President rarely gives national addresses.

Also, there's the OPSEC issue. Anytime UBL communicates with anyone, he's potentially exposing himself, so there's a practical incentive to keeping quiet as well.

The audio-vs-video thing is odd. I gave three possibilities earlier, but I'm still trying to figure that one out myself.

FWIW, I do not buy the lack of technical video support. Previous tapes were shot with comcorders and I am sure that they are not unavailable to a multiimillionaire in Pakistan, or wherever he might be.

I agree that the no-video-support argument is a little thin, but I think still shouldn't be dismissed. AQ takes its propoganda very seriously. They may insist on doing it right. And if they don't perceive a pressing need for Bin Laden to speak on a video, then they'd be all the more likely to wait for the good production value.

[Sdiver]

IMO, Bin Ladin is dead. As has been stated earlier, w/o his dialysis, his Renial Failure took him out.

If in fact, if he is dead, AQ would withhold leaking it to their followers.

I can't see them saying the truth of OBL's death as this "The boss is dead because of a common human disease. He didn't go the way he wanted to, "In the belly of the Eagle", or standing alongside the brave fighters of AQ with his captured AK-47 in his hands, killing the infidels. No, he died because of Kidney Failure. He only will be getting 7 virgins, and 4 of which are overweight......now for a check of the weather with Hassain Bin Ranin'......"

Wasn't there video of a UAV over P-stan awhile ago, several top AQ members at a funeral of some sort. I remember some analysts saying, that on the tape from the UAV, the size of the coffin was estimated at well over 6' in length. What ever happened to that vid anyway?

Now, to play my own Devil's Advocate, IF OBL is NOT dead, then I think he is very actively attempting to gain access to this country, (if he isn't here already), to cause some sort of incident at next years conventions. The GOP's comes to mind.

[dr. mabuse]

r

[x-factor]

Several people have put a lot of stock in the renal failure/dialysis thing. Here's a summary of whats been publically released on UBL's health, compiled by a medical doctor whose hobby is the health issues of historical figures:

http://www.doctorzebra.com/prez/a_binladen.htm#3

NOTE: "The U.S. Central Intelligence Agency has concluded that bin Laden does not need dialysis, but does suffer from kidney stones." (cited from an MSNBC article)

Take the dialysis assumption and stand it on its head and you're saying he survived the flight from Tora Bora in 2001 to TR's Date in April 2003 all the while in constant need of major medical care. How realistic is that?

Again, until we get some more evidence, I think Occam's Razor works in favor of "alive."

[Ranger Luna]

He's working at a local liquor store here in Ca.:o

[dr. mabuse]

r
I'll give you the benefit of a doubt and believe that you just like to argue or are trying to be funny or trying to egg people on, because, surely you can't be serious.

Have a good 'un. ;)

[x-factor]

X-factor, you quote someone that we don't know his real name nor do we know if he even really even is a doctor, who quotes a MSNBC(!?) source that names no one in particular and that is the strongest argument you've got?

Don't trust the MSNBC source? Ok, the National Review (hardly a liberal rag) says its sources say the same thing and cites several subsources both inside the US government and through their own independent investigation.

http://www.nationalreview.com/interrogatory/miniter200511030759.asp

The idea that Bin Laden was dead from typhoid was floated in 2006, but shot down within days by pretty much every major news outlet. All of whom asserted that their sources believed Bin Laden was alive.

My source was a 27 year company man (among others) and I'll trust him over your MSNBC any day.:rolleyes:

So, you're going to dismiss out-of-hand NBC News (an established news organization with a 50+ year track record and reporters in daily contact with the White House, the Pentagon, NSC, etc) but you're personal, completely anecdotal source is unimpeachable, despite being completely unverifiable?

But set the source questions aside. Lets say he does need dialysis every 5 days. That would mean in the two years between Sept 11 and the date TR gave in the first post, that he survived roughly 146 dialysis procedures...the same procedure you said has killed patients that "surely were younger and stronger"? Moreover, he survived all 146 of these procedures, presumably, in conditions that were not exactly hospital quality.

Which is more likely?
a) that he did infact survive all of those procedures (not to mention avoiding infection) or
b) that any health ailments he may or may not have are not that dire

***

Secondly, I have no doubt that if the QPs thought I was here just to agitate or clown around that they'd have booted my ass (and been right to do it). I'm discussing the subject because I find it interesting and I enjoy a good debate the same way a shooter likes going to the range. It keeps the skills up. I post at this site because I've worked with SF men, I like them, and I know they're sharp guys. They're unique in that they combine a lot of theoretical knowledge with an equal amount of practical experience and so, I find, they make for very well-thought out points of view. I know talking through issues with them (whether we agree or not) will help keep me sharp and then I can serve this country all the better.

Lastly, I'm not making my case (in this thread or any other) based on my job or any secret data. I'm making it based solely on publically available information and my best reasoning. I've got no problem with anyone who wants to disagree and I'll be the first to tell you that no one here really knows the answer. But I'd appreciate it if we could leave the snide "if you're really DoD" nonsense out of it.

[dr. mabuse]

This is the last post on this subject for me. When someone defends NBC or big media, it speaks volumns. I never said anything about "if you're really DOD". If you're sensitive about it that's your issue. I've just never met anyone along your line that defends big media. Just raises a red flag for me, that's all.

We just have different standards, that's all. And I'm trying to be polite about it without sarcasm.

To reiterate, the circles I occasionally travel in due to family and/or political connections are different than yours. We simply don't take major media seriously. No one I personally know in politics or LE or business or the very few people I have personally met or worked with in SF take big media seriously.

If you were SF and I were somewhat familiar with you, I might PM you with names. TR or TS or NDD I trust enough to probably supply names. It's fairly obvious that if I quote people, they stop talking to me. Just like you hallowed NBC with their un-named sources. NBC says we're losing the war, no one needs guns, soldiers are schlubs, etc, etc, etc. Why would you trust them? What are you thinking?

I have a DIRECT connection with big media here in Texas (ABC) and you're more than welcome to trust them but, as a group, I sure as hell don't. I know big media from the inside out.

I'll tell them you said "hi" in Crawford.

Have a good 'un :)

[dr. mabuse]

r

[Rumblyguts]

I don't know, but going back through the OBL death threads here, I've read that one QP here was told by a legendary QP that it was the latter's opinion that OBL was dead. Therefore, I'll go along with that information, as that seems to be relaiable source.

I'm not trying to be cryptic, as folks can find the post, but just illustrating how arguing source credibility without revealing sources is ..well.. entertaining :munchin

Heading back to my lane...

[DanUCSB]

I say dead. Not because I have any special sources, but out of common sense (not so common in today's America).

UBL is the worldwide face of AQ, and the movement's most popular figure. Combine this fact with his demonstrated willingness to put himself in the public eye despite being hunted, and then consider the lack of verified sightings in the last couple of years.

He is the biggest tool in the AQ bag; if he were still around, we'd have seen more of him, more recently.

[echoes]

A Professor at my University was asked his opinion in U.S. History class once. This Professor was former counter-terrorism/counter-intelligence in the US Army, and earned his doctorate after his service.

I remember him clearly stating that IF bin-laden was dead and the US gov't knew it, we would not publicize it. His reasons were, among others, that it would provide an advantage to the other side...in that they would attempt to wreak havvoc b/c of their slain leader etc...

I tend to believe that theory...OBL is dead, but it is not being publicised.

Holly just my .02
:munchin

[WhiskeyBoarder]

While I am in no position to hijack a QP’s thread, this discussion has brought to mind many a conversation that I have had with family and friends. These conversations usually begin inevitably with the opposition’s argument against everything to do with current American foreign policy and, also inevitably, turn toward their tread-thin argument concerning the fact that we have yet to find Bin Laden. And, as they would say, “Bin Laden was the original source of all this fighting, right?”

I am not going to go on a tangent concerning all the flaws that I have found in these arguments. However, I do want to add an additional question to the line of thought that this thread is on.

If Bin Laden has managed to stay alive, does he have any control over the various terrorist networks that we are currently dealing with?

I only ask because I often counter points about Bin Laden’s continued existence by suggesting exactly this phenomenon: whether he is alive or not is moot in comparison to whether he is still operationally capable. While I would prefer to see the substantiated death of Bin Laden, I rest just as easy with the thought that he has been rendered ineffective.

Since I have used this point so often, I wanted to make sure there are few holes in it. Any thoughts?

Thanks.

[x-factor]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070711/ap_on_go_ca_st_pe/us_terror_threat

Al-Qaida has rebuilt, U.S. intel warns

By KATHERINE SHRADER and MATTHEW LEE, Associated Press Writers

WASHINGTON - U.S. intelligence analysts have concluded al-Qaida has rebuilt its operating capability to a level not seen since just before the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, The Associated Press has learned. The conclusion suggests that the group that launched the most devastating terror attack on the United States has been able to regroup along the Afghan-Pakistani border despite nearly six years of bombings, war and other tactics aimed at crippling it.

Still, numerous government officials say they know of no specific, credible threat of a new attack on U.S. soil.

A counterterrorism official familiar with a five-page summary of the new government threat assessment called it a stark appraisal to be discussed at the White House on Thursday as part of a broader meeting on an upcoming National Intelligence Estimate.

The official and others spoke on condition of anonymity because the secret report remains classified.

Counterterrorism analysts produced the document, titled "Al-Qaida better positioned to strike the West." The document focuses on the terror group's safe haven in Pakistan and makes a range of observations about the threat posed to the United States and its allies, officials said.

Al-Qaida is "considerably operationally stronger than a year ago" and has "regrouped to an extent not seen since 2001," the official said, paraphrasing the report's conclusions. "They are showing greater and greater ability to plan attacks in Europe and the United States."

The group also has created "the most robust training program since 2001, with an interest in using European operatives," the official quoted the report as saying.

At the same time, this official said, the report speaks of "significant gaps in intelligence" so U.S. authorities may be ignorant of potential or planned attacks.

John Kringen, who heads the CIA's analysis directorate, echoed the concerns about al-Qaida's resurgence during testimony and conversations with reporters at a House Armed Services Committee hearing on Wednesday.

"They seem to be fairly well settled into the safe haven and the ungoverned spaces of Pakistan," Kringen testified. "We see more training. We see more money. We see more communications. We see that activity rising."

The threat assessment comes as the 16 U.S. intelligence agencies prepare a National Intelligence Estimate focusing on threats to the United States. A senior intelligence official, who spoke on condition of anonymity while the high-level analysis was being finalized, said the document has been in the works for roughly two years.

Kringen and aides to National Intelligence Director Mike McConnell would not comment on the details of that analysis. "Preparation of the estimate is not a response to any specific threat," McConnell's spokesman Ross Feinstein said, adding that it would be ready for distribution this summer.

Counterterrorism officials have been increasingly concerned about al-Qaida's recent operations. This week, Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff said he had a "gut feeling" that the United States faced a heightened risk of attack this summer.

Kringen said he wouldn't attach a summer time frame to the concern. In studying the threat, he said he begins with the premise that al-Qaida would consider attacking the U.S. a "home run hit" and that the easiest way to get into the United States would be through Europe.

The new threat assessment puts particular focus on Pakistan, as did Kringen.

"Sooner or later you have to quit permitting them to have a safe haven" along the Afghan-Pakistani border, he told the House committee. "At the end of the day, when we have had success, it is when you've been able to get them worried about who was informing on them, get them worried about who was coming after them."

Several European countries — among them Britain, Denmark, Germany and the Netherlands — are also highlighted in the threat assessment partly because they have arrangements with the Pakistani government that allow their citizens easier access to Pakistan than others, according to the counterterrorism official.

This is more troubling because all four are part of the U.S. visa waiver program, and their citizens can enter the United States without additional security scrutiny, the official said.

The Bush administration has repeatedly cited al-Qaida as a key justification for continuing the fight in Iraq.

"The No. 1 enemy in Iraq is al-Qaida," White House press secretary Tony Snow said Wednesday. "Al-Qaida continues to be the chief organizer of mayhem within Iraq, the chief organization for killing innocent Iraqis."

The findings could bolster the president's hand at a moment when support on Capitol Hill for the war is eroding and the administration is struggling to defend its decision for a military buildup in Iraq. A progress report that the White House is releasing to Congress this week is expected to indicate scant progress on the political and military benchmarks set for Iraq.

The threat assessment says that al-Qaida stepped up efforts to "improve its core operational capability" in late 2004 but did not succeed until December of 2006 after the Pakistani government signed a peace agreement with tribal leaders that effectively removed government military presence from the northwest frontier with Afghanistan.

The agreement allows Taliban and al-Qaida operatives to move across the border with impunity and establish and run training centers, the report says, according to the official.

It also says that al-Qaida is particularly interested in building up the numbers in its middle ranks, or operational positions, so there is not as great a lag in attacks when such people are killed.

"Being No. 3 in al-Qaida is a bad job. We regularly get to the No. 3 person," Tom Fingar, the top U.S. intelligence analyst, told the House panel.

The counterterror official said the report does not focus on al-Qaida leader Osama bin Laden, his whereabouts or his role in the terrorist network. Officials say al-Qaida has become more like a "family-oriented" mob organization with leadership roles in cells and other groups being handed from father to son, or cousin to uncle.

Yet bin Laden's whereabouts are still of great interest to intelligence agencies. Although he has not been heard from for some time, Kringen said officials believe he is still alive and living under the protection of tribal leaders in the border area.

Armed Services Committee members expressed frustration that more was not being done to get bin Laden and tamp down activity in the tribal areas. The senior intelligence analysts tried to portray the difficulty of operating in the area despite a $25 million bounty on the head of bin Laden and his top deputy.

"They are in an environment that is more hostile to us than it is to al-Qaida," Fingar said.

[Pete]

The thing that POs me is some more people talking about a "Secret" report.

Some people like to shoot off their mouths trying to get the MSM to like them or think they're important.

Mighty weak about OBL at the end. Boiled down - they don't know and there ain't no chatter about him. Silent as the grave you could say.

[Tubbs]

I voted other and here's why, I have several theories.

1. Bin Laden pulled a move like in the movie "Face Off", he is actually Rosie O'Donell now.

2. Bin Laden is secretly at the helm of MSNBC. Realizing that it was an eaiser and safer platform to decry the US he cashed in on his college education, took a management job there and is moving up the ranks.

3. Hillary and Bin Laden are the same person. Think about it, just put her in a beard and some robes and it all makes sense. That could also expalin Bills promiscuity. I mean, the only person I would want to have sex with less that Hillary is Bin Laden.

Just my .02;)

[82ndtrooper]

I voted other and here's why, I have several theories.

1. Bin Laden pulled a move like in the movie "Face Off", he is actually Rosie O'Donell now.

2. Bin Laden is secretly at the helm of MSNBC. Realizing that it was an eaiser and safer platform to decry the US he cashed in on his college education, took a management job there and is moving up the ranks.

3. Hillary and Bin Laden are the same person. Think about it, just put her in a beard and some robes and it all makes sense. That could also expalin Bills promiscuity. I mean, the only person I would want to have sex with less that Hillary is Bin Laden.

Just my .02;)

Now that's funny !! You should send this to Bill O'Reilly.com:lifter

[FearMonkey]

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,289324,00.html

Anyone want to change their vote? At least I can take comfort in knowing there are still scumbags that need killing left in this world.

[Pete]

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,289324,00.html

Anyone want to change their vote? At least I can take comfort in knowing there are still scumbags that need killing left in this world.

No. A short clip that may have been an unseen part of a video released 5-6 years ago?

He's dead - but nobody on either side wants to come right out and say it.

[Team Sergeant]

No. A short clip that may have been an unseen part of a video released 5-6 years ago?

He's dead - but nobody on either side wants to come right out and say it.


I agree he's dead.

The MSM will report anything it deems news worthy with a cash value.

All bin laden needs to do is say something "current" which has not been done since 2002. That idiot is dead.

TS

[The Reaper]

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,289324,00.html

Anyone want to change their vote? At least I can take comfort in knowing there are still scumbags that need killing left in this world.

Nope.

No mention of current events or recent activities.

Could have been made years ago.

TR

[Team Sergeant]

Abu Musab al-Zarqawi was also in this recent video....... that idiot has been taking a dirt nap since June 08, 2006.

[groundup]

I'm with TR, but if he is still alive.........I think that he has been holed up in China and if dead, was hiding up there also!!! While we can work with the Pakis, we could never get China to allow us in!!I would say that is where he went. Asked me this 2 years ago, I would say he is definitely alive. Now, I am not so sure.

[SF_BHT]

Still Hiding in a hole In Pakistan....... May have been at his sons wedding to the Brit. May have been dressed up as a camel.....
I think he is scared of the VP asking him to go Bird Hunting.;)

[WhiskeyBoarder]

I just wanted to bring this to your attention. As a note, I am simply extremely interested in politics and understand that many of you are educated and experienced in the field. So, please recognize that I simply bringing this to your attention to allow you to judge its meaning and not to pass judgment myself.

I was watching CSPAN today because Frances Townsend, our Homeland Security Advisor, was holding a press conference concerning current terrorist threats, the recently issued national intelligence estimate, etc.

The conclusion of the conference was particularly relevant to the conversation at hand. A reporter from an Urban Radio affiliate of some sort asked a question concerning Bid Laden’s current health. Townsend was absolutely opposed to divulging any information about what she knows about his physical condition.

I am really curious as to what she knows and why she so blatantly bypassed the question. Could it because Townsend knows, in fact, his well-being is non-existent? Or, is the opposite true and she knows that he is in better health then we may assume?

Here is the exact conversation as per the transcript on the Washington Post website:


QUESTION: Do you know if Osama bin Laden is still on a dialysis machine. Is he still ill? What? I mean, could you tell us about that? I mean, because it...

TOWNSEND: She thinks I'm a doctor...

(LAUGHTER)

QUESTION: No, seriously, I mean, it might be laughable, but people are finding it hard, six years, this man is sick, moving around from cave to cave and can't be found, with a dialysis machine...

TOWNSEND: Have you ever been to the tribal areas?
I suspect not.

QUESTION: No, I haven't, but I've seen some great pictures from Ken Herman as to the rough terrain over that way, so...

(LAUGHTER)

TOWNSEND: It's not exactly easy. If it were easy, he'd be dead.

QUESTION: But it's not easy for him to travel around with medics and machinery, if he's sick. I mean, is he -- do you know, from your intelligence, if he's still sick? What do you know about it?

TOWNSEND: (OFF-MIKE). Thank you.



Any thoughts?

The full transcript can be accessed here (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/07/17/AR2007071700743.html).

Thank you.

[Team Sergeant]

IMO, after reading her bio, she has very little knowledge in the field of national intelligence.

She's a "intelligence lawyer", period. She reviews what and what cannot be done in the way of gathering intel.

"Assistant to the President for Homeland Security and Counterterrorism", no wonder we have not found certain individuals.

The terrorists will never beat us, we will do that ourselves.

TS




Ms. Frances Fragos Townsend
Assistant to the President for Homeland Security and Counterterrorism

Ms. Frances Fragos Townsend was appointed Homeland Security Advisor by the President on May 28th, 2004. Ms. Townsend chairs the Homeland Security Council and reports to the President on United States Homeland Security policy and Combating Terrorism matters. She previously served as Deputy Assistant to the President and Deputy National Security Advisor for Combating Terrorism.

Ms. Townsend came to the White House from the U. S. Coast Guard, where she had served as Assistant Commandant for Intelligence. Prior to that, Ms. Townsend spent 13 years at the U. S. Department of Justice in a variety of senior positions, her last assignment as Counsel to the Attorney General for Intelligence Policy. Ms. Townsend began her prosecutorial career in 1985, serving as an Assistant District Attorney in Brooklyn, New York.

In 1988, she joined the United States Attorney's Office for the Southern District of New York where she focused on international organized crime and white-collar crime cases. In 1991, she worked in the Office of the Attorney General to assist in establishing the newly created Office of International Programs, the predecessor to the Executive Office for National Security. In December 1993, she joined the Criminal Division where she served as Chief of Staff to the Assistant Attorney General and played a critical part in establishing the Division's international training and rule of law programs.

From November of 1995 to November of 1997, Ms. Townsend was Director of the Office of International Affairs in the Criminal Division, which serves as the U. S. Central Authority for extradition and mutual legal assistance, and works with the Department of State in the negotiation of international law enforcement treaties. In November of 1997, Ms. Townsend was appointed as Acting Deputy Assistant Attorney General, Criminal Division, where she oversaw international law enforcement and training matters in the Criminal Division, and acted as an advisor to the Attorney General and Deputy Attorney General on international law enforcement policy.

In March of 1998, Ms. Townsend was appointed Counsel for Intelligence Policy, managing matters related to national security policy and operations for the Department of Justice. In this capacity she headed the office of Intelligence Policy and Review, an office that provides legal advice and recommendations to the Attorney General and the Department of Justice regarding national security matters, reviews executive orders, directives and procedures relating to the intelligence community, and approves certain intelligence-gathering activities, especially those matters related to the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act.

After three years of study, Ms. Townsend graduated cum laude from the American University in 1982 where she received a B.A. in Political Science and a B.S. in Psychology. Ms. Townsend received her J.D. from the University of San Diego School of Law in 1984. In 1986, she attended the Institute on International and Comparative Law in London, England.

[RTK]

Interesting little article from Pakistan paraphrased by Fox.


http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,41576,00.html

Usama bin Laden has died a peaceful death due to an untreated lung complication, the Pakistan Observer reported, citing a Taliban leader who allegedly attended the funeral of the Al Qaeda leader.

"The Coalition troops are engaged in a mad search operation but they would never be able to fulfill their cherished goal of getting Usama alive or dead," the source said.

Bin Laden, according to the source, was suffering from a serious lung complication and succumbed to the disease in mid-December, in the vicinity of the Tora Bora mountains. The source claimed that bin Laden was laid to rest honorably in his last abode and his grave was made as per his Wahabi belief.

About 30 close associates of bin Laden in Al Qaeda, including his most trusted and personal bodyguards, his family members and some "Taliban friends," attended the funeral rites. A volley of bullets was also fired to pay final tribute to the "great leader."

The Taliban source who claims to have seen bin Laden's face before burial said "he looked pale ... but calm, relaxed and confident."

Asked whether bin Laden had any feelings of remorse before death, the source vehemently said "no." Instead, he said, bin Laden was proud that he succeeded in his mission of igniting awareness amongst Muslims about hegemonistic designs and conspiracies of "pagans" against Islam. Bin Laden, he said, held the view that the sacrifice of a few hundred people in Afghanistan was nothing, as those who laid their lives in creating an atmosphere of resistance will be adequately rewarded by Almighty Allah.

When asked where bin Laden was buried, the source said, "I am sure that like other places in Tora Bora, that particular place too must have vanished."

[The Reaper]

Good thing I wasn't there.

I would rat the location of his corpse out ASAP for $25,000,000.

Might give him a nice break from roasting on his spit in hell.

TR

[x-factor]

The dateline on that article is December 26, 2001.

[RTK]

The dateline on that article is December 26, 2001.


I noticed that, but it popped on the headlines of Foxnews.com yesterday for some reason. I'm wondering if it was dated wrong or why else it would come out now.

[x-factor]

Really? Thats odd. Maybe the FoxNews webmaster was reorganizing and just goofed a file move.

[PiratesLife11]

If Bin Laden is still alive—and we must assume that he is—he is holed up, along with his lieutenants, somewhere in the Hindu Kush mountains on the Pakistani border. The problem is that even with all of Musharraf's pledges of support, he has no control over the Waziristan region located between Afghanistan and Pakistan. Waziristan is rife with radical Islamists who support AQ and its leadership. Before and shortly after 9/11, Pakistan's ISI was actively funding and allowing radical madrassas to conscript youths and other muslim extremists and them send them to be trained and fight as mujahedeen in Afghanistan; first against the Soviets, then against the ethnic Tajik N. Alliance. Now, Musharraf is in a precarious position. Many of the ISI agents who operate (or are allowed to operate without being killed) in Waziristan are still sympathetic to the mujahedeen cause, and are easily assuaged. The most obvious solution is that the ISI needs to undergo a massive house cleaning; however, Musharraf already walks a tight line, having already survived numerous assassination attempts. So for him to stay in power (and continue to at least somewhat assist the U.S.) he has to play both sides. As long as Waziristan and the surrounding regions remain autonomous, both economically and militarily; there will never be a solution to the UBL or AQ leadership problem.

UBL and Zawahiri and al-Masri and whoever else don't mean shit anyway. The war on terror is a war of ideals. We must utilize our military, CIA and State Department to win the hearts and minds of the Islamic world, because the quandary isn't going anywhere soon. Putting 150,000 boots on the ground only pisses people off. We must find, fund, arm and educate opposition groups by way of ODA and CIA paramilitary insertions. Use the people within the country of interest to do their own laundry. That way it appears the change is occurring from within. After an interim gov't. is set up, the State Department smoothes out the rough edges and begins to orchestrate the erection of various bureaucracies and infrastructures. This the only way we are going to win this war of attrition, and it will take decades.

—E

[InfantryPL]

Does anybody have a HO or validating argument on whether he perhaps relocated to the Sudan? I have a tentative PSYOP mission there "in the future" and wondered what the snake eaters among us might think.:lifter :lifter

[82ndtrooper]

Does anybody have a HO or validating argument on whether he perhaps relocated to the Sudan? I have a tentative PSYOP mission there "in the future" and wondered what the snake eaters among us might think.:lifter :lifter

Sir, do you really expect any of the SF Soldiers that may even be in the know to dislose that sort of intel on an open internet forum ?

[x-factor]

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/20430170/site/newsweek/page/0/

Long article recapping the hunt for UBL, including lots on SOF and some interesting comments by a SF ops sergeant named (in the article) Adam Rice.

[Roguish Lawyer]

Rice's comments below. Let's not compound Newsweek's OPSEC violations with new ones here, please.

Rice was not optimistic about getting timely permission. Whenever he and his men moved within five kilometers of the safe house, he says, they had to file a request form known as a 5-W, spelling out the who, what, when, where and why of the mission. Permission from headquarters took hours, and if shooting might be involved, it was often denied. To go beyond five kilometers required a CONOP (for "concept of operations") that was much more elaborate and required approval from two layers in the field, and finally the Joint Special Operations Task Force at Baghram air base near Kabul. To get into a fire fight, the permission of a three-star general was necessary. "That process could take days," Rice recalled to NEWSWEEK. He often typed forms while sitting on a 55-gallon drum his men had cut in half to make a toilet seat. "We'd be typing in 130-degree heat while we're crapping away with bacillary dysentery and sometimes the brass at Kandahar or Baghram would kick back and tell you the spelling was incorrect, that you weren't using the tab to delimit the form correctly."

[Roguish Lawyer]

This part really cracked me up:

To catch bin Laden, the CIA was left to lean on local tribesmen, a slender reed. NEWSWEEK recently interviewed two of the three tribal chiefs involved in the operation, Hajji Zahir and Hajji Zaman. They claimed that the CIA overly relied on the third chieftain, Hazrat Ali—and that Ali was paid off (to the tune of $6 million) by Al Qaeda to let bin Laden slip away. Ali could not be reached for comment.

[Needle D]

The Fifth Special Forces Group, including the best Arabic speakers, was sent home to retool for Iraq, replaced by the Seventh Special Forces Group—Spanish speakers with mostly Latin American experience.

Since when do they speak Arabic in Afghanistan or Pakistan?

[hoot72]

I am going to sound extremely biased when I say this but, the pakistani intelligence know alot more than they are inclined to admit to. The relationship between the Taliban and the Pakistani Intelligence dates back 20 plus years and if anyone had access to deep cover information on how and where OBL was or is, it would be them.

Having said that, Musharaaf, try as he may, doesnt control his entire army and there will always be those in the intelligence field who will always put Islam and morality ahead of the country's best interest to protect OBL.

The Pakistani army in general is weak when it comes to guerilla warfare; they were always trained in a straight forward fight on the punjab unlike the North where the enemy is rarely seen but ever present.

[x-factor]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070906/ap_on_re_mi_ea/bin_laden_video

AP article says a new Bin Laden video is going to come out in the next 72 hours for the 6 year anniversary of 9/11.

[Roguish Lawyer]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070906/ap_on_re_mi_ea/bin_laden_video

AP article says a new Bin Laden video is going to come out in the next 72 hours for the 6 year anniversary of 9/11.

I call BS.

[The Reaper]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070906/ap_on_re_mi_ea/bin_laden_video

AP article says a new Bin Laden video is going to come out in the next 72 hours for the 6 year anniversary of 9/11.

Will Elvis be in it with him?

TR

[CPTAUSRET]

He's room temp!

[Team Sergeant]

Left wing stupidity?

Read the first line of this ABC "news" item.

Are all of ABC's reader's just plain stupid, gullible, ignorant, etc.? I've little doubt the left wing news media has a desire to make news not report it….. and those poor morons that read it….. drink up, here's you daily kool-aid.

"Reading the news-101" should be a required course.

Team Sergeant



New Videotape From Bin Laden; Al Qaeda's No. 1 Still Alive
September 07, 2007 9:23 AM
Brian Ross Reports:

Intelligence sources tell ABC News they believe the expected video message from Osama bin Laden is authentic, recently produced and evidence the al Qaeda leader is still alive.
U.S. authorities now say they have a transcript which they say is aimed at potential suicide bombers who he urges to carry out missions against the West.


http://blogs.abcnews.com/theblotter/2007/09/new-videotape-f.html

[SF_BHT]

TS
If everyone was smart enough to do News reading 101 they would be out of a job. I started reading and stopped at those words.:p

[incommin]

"Intelligence sources tell ABC News they believe the expected video message from Osama bin Laden is authentic, recently produced and evidence the al Qaeda leader is still alive."

OK gentlemen and ladies, take your pick....


1. The Intelligence sources are not very intelligent?

2. ABC News doesn't have a source but wants to add so weight to the story?

3. ABC News wants OBL to be alive?

4. ABC New is full of $hit!



Jim

[longrange1947]

You left out 5. All of the above.

[Michelle]

Just saw the video. Terribly out of focus. Also it appears Bin Laden went to the salon and had all his hair dyed black again :confused: .

The eyes don't look right to me... but it's hard to tell with the graininess of the video. I haven't heard if the video has been authenticated yet (by someone other than ABC... lol). Anyone else?

m1

[HOLLiS]

You left out 5. All of the above.

Rich,

I am choosing "5" too. (maybe a few more colorful metaphors)

H.

[CoLawman]

Finally proof he is alive. Now all I need is a video of George and Rudy planting C4 in the World Trade Center. HA HA HA.....perhaps now TS will not be so sure OBL is dead.........I just knew it!

[Ambush Master]

If real, possibly a "fake beard" as he is clean shaven and living in another area where beards are not the norm and would aid in his hiding!!!

[Team Sergeant]

I'm not yet convinced.

We shall see.;)

[RTK]

Just saw the video. Terribly out of focus. Also it appears Bin Laden went to the salon and had all his hair dyed black again :confused: .

The eyes don't look right to me... but it's hard to tell with the graininess of the video. I haven't heard if the video has been authenticated yet (by someone other than ABC... lol). Anyone else?

m1


Here's the funny part. MSNBC ran a picture of what UBL looked like in his last video and what "he" looks like in this one.

So in 4 years he had the time to change the color of his beard but changing out of the same clothes was a bridge too far?

[Shar]

I'm not sure if I've been convinced to change my vote because the audio analyses isn't done - but using a montage of recycled footage seems very telling of his condition (dead or nearly there).

Bin Laden Declares War on Musharraf in New Audiotape
Thursday , September 20, 2007

CAIRO, Egypt —

Usama bin Laden's call for a rebellion in Pakistan is a "serious" threat, U.S. officials said Thursday, noting that President Pervez Musharraf already is facing difficulties at home.

In a new audio message posted by an Islamic Web site, the Al Qaeda chief said Musharraf's military siege of a militant mosque stronghold earlier this year made him an infidel.

The storming of the Red Mosque in Islamabad in July "demonstrated Musharraf's insistence on continuing his loyalty, submissiveness and aid to America against the Muslims ... and makes armed rebellion against him and removing him obligatory," bin Laden said in the tape.

"So when the capability is there, it is obligatory to rebel against the apostate ruler, as is the case now," he said, according to a transcript of the tape released by Laura Mansfield, an American terror expert who monitors militant message traffic.

Bin Laden's voice was heard over video showing previously released footage of the terror leader. U.S. officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity said the audio was being analyzed but noted there had never been a "fake" bin Laden or Zawahiri tape.

The message, titled "Come to Jihad," was the third from bin Laden this month in a flurry of videos and audiotapes marking the sixth anniversary of the Sept. 11 attacks in the United States.

Continued...
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,297401,00.html

[shawn@]

If Bin Laden is still alive—and we must assume that he is—he is holed up, along with his lieutenants, somewhere in the Hindu Kush mountains on the Pakistani border. The problem is that even with all of Musharraf's pledges of support, he has no control over the Waziristan region located between Afghanistan and Pakistan. Waziristan is rife with radical Islamists who support AQ and its leadership. Before and shortly after 9/11, Pakistan's ISI was actively funding and allowing radical madrassas to conscript youths and other muslim extremists and them send them to be trained and fight as mujahedeen in Afghanistan; first against the Soviets, then against the ethnic Tajik N. Alliance. Now, Musharraf is in a precarious position. Many of the ISI agents who operate (or are allowed to operate without being killed) in Waziristan are still sympathetic to the mujahedeen cause, and are easily assuaged. The most obvious solution is that the ISI needs to undergo a massive house cleaning; however, Musharraf already walks a tight line, having already survived numerous assassination attempts. So for him to stay in power (and continue to at least somewhat assist the U.S.) he has to play both sides. As long as Waziristan and the surrounding regions remain autonomous, both economically and militarily; there will never be a solution to the UBL or AQ leadership problem.

UBL and Zawahiri and al-Masri and whoever else don't mean shit anyway. The war on terror is a war of ideals. We must utilize our military, CIA and State Department to win the hearts and minds of the Islamic world, because the quandary isn't going anywhere soon. Putting 150,000 boots on the ground only pisses people off. We must find, fund, arm and educate opposition groups by way of ODA and CIA paramilitary insertions. Use the people within the country of interest to do their own laundry. That way it appears the change is occurring from within. After an interim gov't. is set up, the State Department smoothes out the rough edges and begins to orchestrate the erection of various bureaucracies and infrastructures. This the only way we are going to win this war of attrition, and it will take decades.

—E


Amen!

[x-factor]

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/20920365/site/newsweek/

Interesting article about feuding within AQ.

[Pete S]

Here we go again:

Bin Laden urges Iraq insurgents to unite
Mon Oct 22, 2007 2:13pm EDT

DUBAI (Reuters) - Osama bin Laden called on insurgent groups in Iraq to unify their ranks, in an audio recording aired by Al Jazeera television on Monday.

"The interest of the Islamic nation surpasses that of a group," said the speaker who sounded like the leader of al Qaeda. "The strength of faith is in the strength of the bond between Muslims and not that of a tribe or nationalism..."

http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSL2251391920071022?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews&rpc=22&sp=true

[MardiGras]

Bin Ladin maybe dead. But then again that may be exactly what he wants us to think. He is definitely laying low and either living in a cave or buried in one. IMHO, it really does not matter. What does matter is the fact that these radical zealots who follow him are still out there and still looking to put a bulls eye on Uncle Sam's back. IMHO it is far more important to take apart his organizational infrastructure and disrupt his ability to plan and execute attacks than it is to capture him personally. Why? Because IMHO there will always be some nutjob, crackpot, who wants to impress the almighty with how well he can kill "infidels" (ie..you and me) on his behalf looking to become the leader. So if Bin Ladin gets bumped off it will not be too long before a new guy pops up with a video proclaiming he is jihadist numo uno. Don't get me wrong nothing would make me happier than seeing that SOB taken out, but I am just as anxious to see his followers laid low permanently.

[Team Sergeant]

Ten bucks says it just audio.......:rolleyes:


bin laden is dead.......:lifter

For those that don't think bin laden is eating pork ribs in hell riddle me this, it's just as easy to smuggle out "Audio & Video" as it is "audio". Besides audio/video would be a whole lot more powerful for the spineless cowards watching.

bin laden is dead.......:lifter




Al-Sahab: Usama Bin Laden to Make 'Powerful Speech' to 'Islamic Nation'
Sunday, May 18, 2008

CAIRO, Egypt — The media wing of Al Qaeda says Usama Bin Laden soon will issue a new message addressed to the Islamic world.

Al-Sahab posted a banner Sunday on a militant Web site known for carrying the terror network's messages. It said a "powerful speech to the Islamic nation," will be issued soon.

The announcement comes after a message from Bin Laden on Friday marking the 60th anniversary of Israel's foundation in which he vowed to continue his struggle against the Jewish state.

Messages typically appear within 72 hours of being announced.






http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,356526,00.html

[Red Flag 1]

TS

hope so!!

[BryanK]

This is second hand information from the MD AAG. My 1SG told us today that he was told in a meeting yesterday evening with th AAG, that there was "good intelligence" that OBL was hit in a raid of some sort in Pakistan. Has anyone else heard this?:confused:

[Team Sergeant]

This is second hand information from the MD AAG. My 1SG told us today that he was told in a meeting yesterday evening with th AAG, that there was "good intelligence" that OBL was hit in a raid of some sort in Pakistan. Has anyone else heard this?:confused:

Yeah, back in 2002;)

[sf11b_p]

Seems Senator Biden knows where OBL is...

September 22, 2008 6:19 PM

"Ladies and gentlemen, where are we now? Where are we now?" Sen. Joe Biden, D-Del., said to the National Guard Association today, talking about the war in Afghanistan.

"If you want to know where Al Qaeda lives, you want to know where Bin Laden is, come back to Afghanistan with me," Biden said. "Come back to the area where my helicopter was forced down, with a three-star general and three senators at 10,500 feet in the middle of those mountains. I can tell you where they are."

Biden said that Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., "says he’ll follow them to the gates of hell. You don’t have to go to hell. Just go to Pakistan. Just go to that area. That superhighway of terror that exists between Afghanistan and Pakistan." - ABC News Blog

And earlier this month...

"What I care about is: What in God's name is she going to do -- along with John McCain -- about the thousands of people who don't have health care?" Biden asked. He'll ask her about "The superhighway of terror between Pakistan and Afghanistan where my helicopter was forced down...John McCain wants to know where Bin Ladin and the gates of Hell are? I can tell him where. That's where Al Quaida is. That's where Bin Ladin is. It's not in the country of Iraq." - September 10, 2008 Chicagl Sun Times

His helicopter forced down? Forced down, true, but by what...

In February 2008, Biden -- along with Sens. John Kerry, D-Mass., and Chuck Hagel, R-Neb. -- was on a chopper that made an emergency landing in the mountains of Afghanistan.

A snowstorm had forced them down.

No one was injured, and the Associated Press reported at the time that "the senators and their delegation returned to Bagram Air Base in a motor convoy, and left for Turkey.

"The weather closed in on us," Kerry told the AP at the time in a phone interview from Turkey. "It went pretty blind, pretty fast and we were around some pretty dangerous ridges. So the pilot exercised his judgment that we were better off putting down there, and we all agreed...We sat up there and traded stories."

Kerry joked, "We were going to send Biden out to fight the Taliban with snowballs, but we didn't have to do it…Other than getting a little cold, it was fine." - ABC News Blog

SNL can't write shit this funny.

[hoot72]

Has an actual recent video from OBL actually surfaced in the last few months that we haven't seen?

[charlietwo]

That could be true, if he is alive.

I wonder how many voted for President Bush after OBL backed Kerry?

I do not think that he got the outcome he wanted, but could he have made a difference in getting the POTUS re-elected?

Does an attack on the US, threats, or violent rhetoric by terrorists favor the Dems chances, or the Repubs?

TR

I think at this point, a terrorist attack would still raise a cascade of pro-American/anti-Islam sentiment, and ensure a McCain/Palin victory. However, if the attack were arranged to look like a conspiracy, it would deal another deep wound in our psyche the moment the blogosphere and conspiracy theorists start drumming up ideas.

There is a major consensus outside of the United States and even within that the 'Zionists' are behind every major event, specifically terror attacks, simply to garner support for the state of Israel. With that atmosphere, it wouldn't take much extra planning to broaden the conspiracy theories against the US government, or her allies.

Just my 2c. :munchin

[LR27]

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/11/12/binladen.hunt/index.html

QP's, what do you think about Obama's stance on the hunt? Do you think it is realistic, or do you think he is going to have a reality check in January?

[Loadsmasher]

said Dalton Fury, the commander of special operations at Tora Bora.


Once again, CNN does it's usual great job of reporting the facts.
I can't tell if it's ignorance, little or no writting ability or willful mistatement that leads to quotes like the one above.

[JSE]

"I think it's important to understand that bin Laden had his chance at martyrdom. He was in the mountains of Tora Bora, he ran away. In my opinion, I think we ought to promote this," Fury said.

I find this to be a very interesting and unconventional approach...

[civilian]

Seems Pakistan has become a pretty hot AO. Press reporting over 30 strikes since Aug 2008. Seems for years now that OBL couldn't risk meeting any of his operational guys for fear of what they would disclose if captured. Just don't think even loyal elements of the ISI in Pakistan could continue to hide him. I've read Iran let OBL or at least his son stay there until the build up to the Iraq invasion. My guess is that he went back to Iran and is aided by certain elements of Iran's military or leadership. The agreement could have been that Iran would control what messages were released and when, as to keep us guessing to prevent any clues from pointing back to Iran. He may very well be buried somewhere in Iran by now. He had to have medical care and couldn't stay in a cave forever. Keeping us guessing about OBL helps to some degree distract from Iran's nuclear program. Iran probably thinks we are prevented from touching him there by our own politicans who would scream Bush is expanding the war without congressional approval. Only other country that has a history of hiding terrorists is Syria. However, I don't think they have the balls to try it and it's obvious no one is untouchable in Sryia. Find it hard to believe OBL hasn't sent out a message about Israel kicking the shit out of Hamas. The silence is deafening. I would think Iran would like that very much since they help fund Hamas. Anyway, I say he's dead in Iran.

[bailaviborita]

Dead- under rubble of caves in Pakistan. And I think it is better for us for AQ to keep on pretending he's alive without video proof or proof by mentioning current events in his audio. Martyr is better for AQ than "we think he's dead- but don't know", IMO.

I could just imagine them finding his dead body and parading it around, or someone capturing and the headache that will entail- especially in Pakistan, and we can't hold him- not with Gitmo going away, or him doing proof-positive he is alive. All that seems worse to me than if he is dead- but no-one can find him.

[LR27]

Seems Pakistan has become a pretty hot AO. Press reporting over 30 strikes since Aug 2008. Seems for years now that OBL couldn't risk meeting any of his operational guys for fear of what they would disclose if captured. Just don't think even loyal elements of the ISI in Pakistan could continue to hide him. I've read Iran let OBL or at least his son stay there until the build up to the Iraq invasion. My guess is that he went back to Iran and is aided by certain elements of Iran's military or leadership. The agreement could have been that Iran would control what messages were released and when, as to keep us guessing to prevent any clues from pointing back to Iran. He may very well be buried somewhere in Iran by now. He had to have medical care and couldn't stay in a cave forever. Keeping us guessing about OBL helps to some degree distract from Iran's nuclear program. Iran probably thinks we are prevented from touching him there by our own politicans who would scream Bush is expanding the war without congressional approval. Only other country that has a history of hiding terrorists is Syria. However, I don't think they have the balls to try it and it's obvious no one is untouchable in Sryia. Find it hard to believe OBL hasn't sent out a message about Israel kicking the shit out of Hamas. The silence is deafening. I would think Iran would like that very much since they help fund Hamas. Anyway, I say he's dead in Iran.
Why do you believe he is in Iran? Most reports indicate he went east, not west. Most of Al-Qaeda are Sunni Baluchi fundamentalists, whereas the majority of Iran's government are Shi'a moderates, less conservative reformers of Islam. It is highly unlikely they would be working in conjunction, as their ideologies are starkly conflicting.

[echoes]

Ten bucks says it just audio.......:rolleyes:

bin laden is dead.......:lifter

For those that don't think bin laden is eating pork ribs in hell riddle me this, it's just as easy to smuggle out "Audio & Video" as it is "audio". Besides audio/video would be a whole lot more powerful for the spineless cowards watching.

bin laden is dead.......:lifter[/url]

Greetings...

Fact:
If TS, (and other QP's) say OBL is dead...He is DEAD!:cool:

Just my humble .02...

Holly

[Team Sergeant]

I'm sure the book will soon be written by the Special Forces A-Team that killed bin laden informing the world that he is in fact dead and that the "SOF team" dalton fury led was actually a diversion to "scare" bin laden into the waiting Special Forces soldiers that in fact killed him.

We've not seen an actual bin laden "audio-video" since 2002 and I think the Occam's Razor theory applies here, bin laden is dead. Killed by some barrel chested freedom fighters known around the world as "The Green Berets".;)

Team Sergeant

[LR27]

I'm sure the book will soon be written by the Special Forces A-Team that killed bin laden informing the world that he is in fact dead and that the "SOF team" dalton fury led was actually a diversion to "scare" bin laden into the waiting Special Forces soldiers that in fact killed him.

We've not seen an actual bin laden "audio-video" since 2002 and I think the Occam's Razor theory applies here, bin laden is dead. Killed by some barrel chested freedom fighters known around the world as "The Green Berets".;)

Team Sergeant
I respect your opinion.

If the A-Team did in fact kill him, why wasn't it confirmed? Was it by air-strike? Is this confirmed within the SF community or is it your personal belief?

Just attempting to pick your brain, as this subject consumes me. By asking questions, I am not attempting to disrespect you or discredit your theory.

Thanks.

[Team Sergeant]

I respect your opinion.

If the A-Team did in fact kill him, why wasn't it confirmed? Was it by air-strike? Is this confirmed within the SF community or is it your personal belief?

Just attempting to pick your brain, as this subject consumes me. By asking questions, I am not attempting to disrespect you or discredit your theory.

Thanks.

Did you read the entire thread?

There's lots of reasons not to "confirm" that cowards death, not by our hand anyway.

After you read the whole therad let me know, we'll discuss it again....

TS

edit to add: LongRange27, you seem interested, riddle me this, in an age of flash drives, and digital audio/video, WHY does "osama the coward" only smuggle out "audio" for the world to hear? If you are going to "risk you life" to smuggle out your rantings why not audio/video? Simple, because bin laden is very dead and someone esle is doing the talking. There has not been a video of him talking since 2002, only audio. ALL the other tapes no one could confirm the dates because he didn't speak of anything current. He's dead.

2nd and most importantly, bin laden was no where to be seen when we marched into Iraq, no where. He should have been doing a video a day to boost the morale of his idiot followers as we were killing 10's of thousands, not one peep from osama the coward. Because he's dead.

3 you constantly hear from his #2 coward all the time, audio and video, ever wonder why? They're supposed to be hiding together, so WHY would it be "less" dangerous for #2 to do audio video and #1 to only do audio? Because #1 is dead.

We can go on and on but I'm sure you get my drift. Why we don't tell the world, I can think of quite a few reasons as well as why al quada doesnt tell the world their leader is dead.

Your turn, convince me he's alive.

TS

[LR27]

Did you read the entire thread?

There's lots of reasons not to "confirm" that cowards death, not by our hand anyway.

After you read the whole therad let me know, we'll discuss it again....

TS

edit to add: LongRange27, you seem interested, riddle me this, in an age of flash drives, and digital audio/video, WHY does "osama the coward" only smuggle out "audio" for the world to hear? If you are going to "risk you life" to smuggle out your rantings why not audio/video? Simple, because bin laden is very dead and someone esle is doing the talking. There has not been a video of him talking since 2002, only audio. ALL the other tapes no one could confirm the dates because he didn't speak of anything current. He's dead.

2nd and most importantly, bin laden was no where to be seen when we marched into Iraq, no where. He should have been doing a video a day to boost the morale of his idiot followers as we were killing 10's of thousands, not one peep from osama the coward. Because he's dead.

3 you constantly hear from his #2 coward all the time, audio and video, ever wonder why? They're supposed to be hiding together, so WHY would it be "less" dangerous for #2 to do audio video and #1 to only do audio? Because #1 is dead.

We can go on and on but I'm sure you get my drift. Why we don't tell the world, I can think of quite a few reasons as well as why al quada doesnt tell the world their leader is dead.

Your turn, convince me he's alive.

TS
TS,

Good points. It is very hard to argue against that because some questions just can't be answered unless I have a TS/SCI clearance and I am in Waziristan actually looking for him and his buddies. When I get to that point, which I will, we'll talk again...;)

I am not actually taking a side of dead or alive, rather, I am trying to get all the opinions I can from knowledgeable sources. Bush says he's alive, the Agency says he's alive, and we still have a large group of resources out there looking for him, so that's all I really have to go on at this point. I agree that I can definitely see the benefits of Al-Qaeda saying he is alive. But I can also think of a very good reason AQ would want us to think he is dead: no more BLU's to ruin their cave parties.

But the only reason I still have my doubts is I would think a third party would confirm his death, such as the ISI or Afghan govt, people who are sick of our presence in the region and want to question why we are still there if he is in fact dead. And I would think someone besides Dalton Fury that was on site when he was killed would write about it and stop the lies.

You have a good argument, and I have no way of convincing you he is alive. I would just like to see a body so I don't waste my time chasing a ghost.

[emoore]

He should have been doing a video a day to boost the morale of his idiot followers
TS

That reason alone convinced me years ago that the POS was dead.

[greenberetTFS]

Hey Guys,I don't know if he's alive or dead....However,he just sent out a message to BHO. Has any one else seen it on CBS late news? :rolleyes:

GB TFS :munchin

[civilian]

Why do you believe he is in Iran? Most reports indicate he went east, not west. Most of Al-Qaeda are Sunni Baluchi fundamentalists, whereas the majority of Iran's government are Shi'a moderates, less conservative reformers of Islam. It is highly unlikely they would be working in conjunction, as their ideologies are starkly conflicting.

Remember the saying "The enemy of enemy is my friend"! Iran could care less less if OBL was Morman after what he pulled off on 9/11. I think he looks weak and looks like shit and that is why OBL only sends out audio. Important that the video not provide any clue that our anaylists might pick up on. Good friend of mine who retired as an operator in 04 thinks OBL is dead and they might have software to take bits of his voice and stream them into a message. I don't think so at all. I really believe he is being hosted in Iran which is the safest place he could be. Again, my theory is that a condition of Iran hosting him, they controll what gets out to the media. I posted the other day that I was surprised OBL hadn't commented on the Gaza battle and within a few days we have another audio tape. I just don't think he could feel safe in Pakistan. Why would he want to stay in Pakistan anyway. It's just their FOB and he can't meet with any of his operational folks anyway. I bet he has most of his family in Iran and they live in a tightly controlled compound. He gets medical care and protection but Iran controlls the tapes and messages that get sent out. Keeping OBL alive, helps divert less focus on Iran building nukes. Which by the was Saddam would had to start doing to match Iran. we ought to make wagers and let team srgt hold the money until we get a winner.

Just my opinion.

[LR27]

Remember the saying "The enemy of enemy is my friend"! Iran could care less less if OBL was Morman after what he pulled off on 9/11.
The Middle East has history of this. But Iran would not risk a US invasion just to support some thug that attacked America. Especially when they don't have the same long term ideals or religious beliefs.

The best article I have read hands down on Afghanistan, Pakistan, and the 'Pashtun belt' is right here:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/07/magazine/07pakistan-t.html?_r=1&pagewanted=1

I believe bin Laden is one of the those 'important Arabs' in the hills.

[MeC86]

Longrange is right...Its too risky for Iran to host him in their country. Relations with the US and Iran are already on thin ice as it is. The discovery that OBL is living there and being supported by them would be disastrous for Iran.

I think TS is right....hes dead.

[afchic]

I think he is dead, but to say that he is not in Iran, because the Iranians wouldn't risk our ire, is crazy in my opinion. The Iranians could care less what we think.

It would be more like the Iranians to rub it in our face that he is there, and then hope we would try to do something about it. How many times in the past couple of years have they tried to instigate something with us?

[Comsmith22]

His Latest Tape makes look like the old son-of-a-brick is still kicking...
in bad shape...
but still a pain in our 4th POC
:boohoo

[Pete]

Here is the link to the story Commsmith22 was REing

http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/story?id=6653678&page=1

[civilian]

The Middle East has history of this. But Iran would not risk a US invasion just to support some thug that attacked America. Especially when they don't have the same long term ideals or religious beliefs.

The best article I have read hands down on Afghanistan, Pakistan, and the 'Pashtun belt' is right here:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/07/magazine/07pakistan-t.html?_r=1&pagewanted=1

I believe bin Laden is one of the those 'important Arabs' in the hills.

Seriously now! Iran is not at all worried about a US invasion. Don't underestimate our enemy. They know we have our hands full in Iraq and Afghanistan. Politically, with the new administration coming in, Iran knows all to well Obama hasn't the frist clue when it comes to anything military and he hasn't supported our efforts in Iraq. An invasion in Iran would undo almost everything we have achieved in blood and money in Iraq and undermine PM/President Malki. Iran stopped worrying about us before the election. So many of our esteemed congressman and senators, thought it was wise to do a 180 after they orginally supported the decision to invade Iraq. Yeap! Iranians are kicking back smiling knowing they're in good shape knowing we won't allow Israel to take out the nuke sites, we lack the political will with the anti-war left in power to either stike or invade them. With Shia in control of Iraq, Iran's proxy forces in Lebanon and Gaza pretty much holding those governments hostage, they are in great shape sad to say. The Iranians really couldn't be doing any better! Is it really that difficult to hide OBL and his bitches in a compound when they have the means and will to do so? Hosting OBL keeps us busy looking for him and stirring things up in Gaza helps deflect attention from their nuclear ambitions. Mark my words, Iran and probably China will test Obama soon after he builds his basketball court in the Whitehouse.

Question? If the pork eat'en OBL isn't dead then how are they making the audio tapes that appear to address current events. Technology? Like to hear some possible theories.

I think he is very much alive! There is no proof and I am not aware of any evidence to suggest it. OBL went underwater for 3 years after Tora Bora and didn't resurface until days before the 2004 elections handing Bush the election. Way to go OBL! You gave our guys 4 more years to crush your ass in Iraq with Sunnies turning against them. 4 more years of taking the fight to them in Afganistan and Pak.

[LR27]

Seriously now! Iran is not at all worried about a US invasion. Don't underestimate our enemy. They know we have our hands full in Iraq and Afghanistan.
We weren't always bogged down in Iraq and Afghanistan.

You think Iran harbored him after Tora Bora, well that's 2002, and we weren't in Iraq. I don't know how good your geography is, but all we would have to do is push west from Afghanistan and topple Tehran.

The radical Ahmadinejad wasn't president then. And he doesn't even make those kinds of decisions to harbor bin Laden, the Supreme Leader does. The risk is far greater than the reward for Iran. They like him alive because he is a thorn in our side, but they are not going to put their population at risk for him.

To Pete and all QP's about the above link:

Don't you think it is possible one of bin Laden's lieutenants told him to stop producing visual videos because our MSM leaked the fact that our intel agencies use scientists to examine the terrain behind him to determine his location? Just a thought...

[Pete]

To Pete and all QP's about the above link: ...Don't you think it is possible one of bin Laden's lieutenants told him to stop producing visual videos because our MSM leaked the fact that our intel agencies use scientists to examine the terrain behind him to determine his location? Just a thought...

Hard to get data on a guy sitting behind a desk with a sheet behind him.

Remember - the last IIRC video was him behind a desk and that yellowish sheet behind him? That was the video where the picture stopped while the talking continued.

[civilian]

We weren't always bogged down in Iraq and Afghanistan.

You think Iran harbored him after Tora Bora, well that's 2002, and we weren't in Iraq. I don't know how good your geography is, but all we would have to do is push west from Afghanistan and topple Tehran.

The radical Ahmadinejad wasn't president then. And he doesn't even make those kinds of decisions to harbor bin Laden, the Supreme Leader does. The risk is far greater than the reward for Iran. They like him alive because he is a thorn in our side, but they are not going to put their population at risk for him.

To Pete and all QP's about the above link:

Don't you think it is possible one of bin Laden's lieutenants told him to stop producing visual videos because our MSM leaked the fact that our intel agencies use scientists to examine the terrain behind him to determine his location? Just a thought...

You missed the point. Didn't say we were bogged down but rather our guys a busy doing their jobs right now doing multiple tours. The point is that we don't have the resources nor the political will to launch an invasion of Iran. Joint Chiefs would bauk at any suggestion. Therefore, it has nothing to do with geography and pushing west. You don't push west against a country like Iran. That would require a lot and would only unite the Iranians more. We could have pushed in Nam too but there wasn't the political will. Regardless, the world won't back our play to invade OBL because they wouldn't extradict him. Didn't say he went to Iran right after Tor Bora. Obviously he wentto Pakistan and who knows how long he stayed there before it got too hot there. Ahmadinejad wouldn't be in the know of such a operation of a military/national security nature. Also If he is not in Iran then where is he? Was he not in the video days before the 2004 election before Bush and kerry. How are they making the voice tapes? And yes they can put OBL in front of a desk with a sheet behind him to be careful not to underestimate their enemy either. regardless, the audio tapes seem to be too specific to world events. I just have heard a good theory of how they are doing these tapes.

[LR27]

You missed the point. Didn't say we were bogged down but rather our guys a busy doing their jobs right now doing multiple tours. The point is that we don't have the resources nor the political will to launch an invasion of Iran. Joint Chiefs would bauk at any suggestion. Therefore, it has nothing to do with geography and pushing west. You don't push west against a country like Iran. That would require a lot and would only unite the Iranians more. We could have pushed in Nam too but there wasn't the political will. Regardless, the world won't back our play to invade OBL because they wouldn't extradict him. Didn't say he went to Iran right after Tor Bora. Obviously he wentto Pakistan and who knows how long he stayed there before it got too hot there. Ahmadinejad wouldn't be in the know of such a operation of a military/national security nature. Also If he is not in Iran then where is he? Was he not in the video days before the 2004 election before Bush and kerry. How are they making the voice tapes? And yes they can put OBL in front of a desk with a sheet behind him to be careful not to underestimate their enemy either. regardless, the audio tapes seem to be too specific to world events. I just have heard a good theory of how they are doing these tapes.
I'm not missing your point, you're missing mine. Of course the Joint Chiefs and Congress would have a fit if we tried to invade Iran right now. But if we had intel that bin Laden was in Iran before we hit Iraq, I guarantee everybody and their brother would have been down to turn Tehran into a dustbowl.

You're throwing ideas out, but you aren't backing it up with any real evidence or even theory. If Ahmadinejad didn't know about harboring bin Laden, do you know who would be responsible for such an operation? The Quds. They are Iran's version of SF/CIA types, and they are not going to defy their government and take the political risks of harboring the most wanted man in the world. Despite how much trash Iran talks, they do not want to be invaded. It is simply a power play to put themselves in the spotlight and show the rest of the Middle East that since Saddam is gone, Iran is the strongest country in the region now, which they are.

In my opinion, bin Laden is moving to and from secure locations in the NWFP, North and South Waziristan, and Peshawar, Pakistan. Our spying capabilities our extremely limited in those areas, especially with him on the move. Obviously, you didn't read the article I posted.

This is where I think he is: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/07/magazine/07pakistan-t.html

[Team Sergeant]

I'm not missing your point, you're missing mine. Of course the Joint Chiefs and Congress would have a fit if we tried to invade Iran right now. But if we had intel that bin Laden was in Iran before we hit Iraq, I guarantee everybody and their brother would have been down to turn Tehran into a dustbowl.

You're throwing ideas out, but you aren't backing it up with any real evidence or even theory. If Ahmadinejad didn't know about harboring bin Laden, do you know who would be responsible for such an operation? The Quds. They are Iran's version of SF/CIA types, and they are not going to defy their government and take the political risks of harboring the most wanted man in the world. Despite how much trash Iran talks, they do not want to be invaded. It is simply a power play to put themselves in the spotlight and show the rest of the Middle East that since Saddam is gone, Iran is the strongest country in the region now, which they are.

In my opinion, bin Laden is moving to and from secure locations in the NWFP, North and South Waziristan, and Peshawar, Pakistan. Our spying capabilities our extremely limited in those areas, especially with him on the move. Obviously, you didn't read the article I posted.

This is where I think he is: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/07/magazine/07pakistan-t.html

LongRange27,

Do me (and the other SF'ers) a favor and quit quoting the NYT's, its about as credible as the National Enquirer.

Team Sergeant

[civilian]

I'm not missing your point, you're missing mine. Of course the Joint Chiefs and Congress would have a fit if we tried to invade Iran right now. But if we had intel that bin Laden was in Iran before we hit Iraq, I guarantee everybody and their brother would have been down to turn Tehran into a dustbowl.

You're throwing ideas out, but you aren't backing it up with any real evidence or even theory. If Ahmadinejad didn't know about harboring bin Laden, do you know who would be responsible for such an operation? The Quds. They are Iran's version of SF/CIA types, and they are not going to defy their government and take the political risks of harboring the most wanted man in the world. Despite how much trash Iran talks, they do not want to be invaded. It is simply a power play to put themselves in the spotlight and show the rest of the Middle East that since Saddam is gone, Iran is the strongest country in the region now, which they are.

In my opinion, bin Laden is moving to and from secure locations in the NWFP, North and South Waziristan, and Peshawar, Pakistan. Our spying capabilities our extremely limited in those areas, especially with him on the move. Obviously, you didn't read the article I posted.

This is where I think he is: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/07/magazine/07pakistan-t.html

The premise of the question of this thread pertains to where OBL is now. I have read from more reputable sources than the NYT that elements of Al Qaeda where allowed to go into Iran after we went into Afghanistan. Even if he went into Iran soon after 9/11, there was no way we were going into Iran. There was a big difference in being able to go into Afghanistan, which had a history of being a brutal failed state and hosting the OBL gang for years and Iraq, which had dozens of UN resolutions against them and the intelligence pointed to them having an aggressive interests in WMDs which was just enough to get Congress and some of our allies to support it. You might be over estimating Ahmadinejad's power as well as his control over their military and covert operations.

Regardless, the question in where is OBL. I say if he is not dead then he could very well be in Iran considering the close proximity and that they are the only country in the Middle East in a position to do so. Iran fears Israel more than us.
You suggest he is still in the Waziristan/Peshawar region. He very well could be and that is a very educated and reasonable suggestion. However, I think he knows very well we would not hesitate to strike him by either air or land if we found out where he was in that area or anywhere in Pakistan. Some reported 30 or so air strikes and possible a few black helicopters being inserted on that side of the fence since Aug 2008 make that a hot AO in my opinion. I don't think he has the balls to risk staying there but you could certainly be correct.

[LR27]

LongRange27,

Do me (and the other SF'ers) a favor and quit quoting the NYT's, its about as credible as the National Enquirer.

Team Sergeant
Roger, I'll find other sources.

[LR27]

Some reported 30 or so air strikes and possible a few black helicopters being inserted on that side of the fence since Aug 2008 make that a hot AO in my opinion. I don't think he has the balls to risk staying there but you could certainly be correct.
Those black helicopters only cross that border and go after people that are worth the political risk. I'm sure it happens more than we hear about, but not that often.

In the past year, several Afghani's have been killed in the NWFP by local Taliban for spying for America. The ISI and Pakistani military doesn't let our intel folks wander too far from their hip, and its really hard to penetrate some of those areas without being made as a foreigner. So really, he could be hiding up in those hills and we would never know it.

Just my thoughts and opinions... feel free to critique.

[civilian]

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http://www.longwarjournal.org/archiv..._coordinat.php



Osama’s son coordinates call between Zawahiri and Iran’s Qods Force
By BILL ROGGIOJanuary 17, 2009 1:05 AM
Osama bin Laden’s son coordinated communications between al Qaeda’s second in command and Iran’s Qods Force, according to Mike McConnell , the outgoing Director of National Intelligence.

Sa’ad bin Laden facilitated communications between Ayman al Zawahiri and Qods Force, the notorious special operations branch of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps, in September 2008 after the deadly attack on the US embassy in Yemen.

Sa’ad entered Pakistan’s northwest to meet with Zawahiri in Pakistan sometime in early September, McConnell claimed. Sa’ad’s whereabout is currently unknown but he is still thought to be with al Qaeda’s senior leadership inside Pakistan. Sa’ad, his brother Hamza, and other senior al Qaeda leaders are known to routinely travel back and forth between Iran and Pakistan.

Long Wire posted this on another thread and I think it helps support my opinion that Bin Laden has been in Iran eating McRib pork sandwiches all along since Tora Bora. The Wall Street Journal reported that Mike McConnell, the outgoing Director of National Intelligence, believes we have intel that Al Qaeda still has ongoing communications with Iran Qods Force as recent as Sept 2008. I think there maybe more to the story, like the possibility of Bin Laden's son passing love notes, old copies of Play Girl mags and audio tapes from Bin Laden in Iran to Zawahiri in Pakistan. I think its obvious Bin Laden and Zawahiri have not been together for years, which is evidenced by the lack of both of them appearing together in tapes. Of course, if Bin Laden is dead that may well explain why. However, I think he is in a compound receiving medical care in Iran and his movements and communications are greatly restricted thus the audio and no video.

[LR27]

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http://www.longwarjournal.org/archiv..._coordinat.php



Osama’s son coordinates call between Zawahiri and Iran’s Qods Force
By BILL ROGGIOJanuary 17, 2009 1:05 AM
Osama bin Laden’s son coordinated communications between al Qaeda’s second in command and Iran’s Qods Force, according to Mike McConnell , the outgoing Director of National Intelligence.

Sa’ad bin Laden facilitated communications between Ayman al Zawahiri and Qods Force, the notorious special operations branch of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps, in September 2008 after the deadly attack on the US embassy in Yemen.

Sa’ad entered Pakistan’s northwest to meet with Zawahiri in Pakistan sometime in early September, McConnell claimed. Sa’ad’s whereabout is currently unknown but he is still thought to be with al Qaeda’s senior leadership inside Pakistan. Sa’ad, his brother Hamza, and other senior al Qaeda leaders are known to routinely travel back and forth between Iran and Pakistan.

Long Wire posted this on another thread and I think it helps support my opinion that Bin Laden has been in Iran eating McRib pork sandwiches all along since Tora Bora. The Wall Street Journal reported that Mike McConnell, the outgoing Director of National Intelligence, believes we have intel that Al Qaeda still has ongoing communications with Iran Qods Force as recent as Sept 2008. I think there maybe more to the story, like the possibility of Bin Laden's son passing love notes, old copies of Play Girl mags and audio tapes from Bin Laden in Iran to Zawahiri in Pakistan. I think its obvious Bin Laden and Zawahiri have not been together for years, which is evidenced by the lack of both of them appearing together in tapes. Of course, if Bin Laden is dead that may well explain why. However, I think he is in a compound receiving medical care in Iran and his movements and communications are greatly restricted thus the audio and no video.
I saw that article a couple days ago and knew it would end up on here.;)

I don't refute that the Quds leadership and Al-Qaeda maintain contact. I just don't think bin Laden is in Iran. Also, I don't think it would be safe for him there. He may have a small group of individuals that support him such as the Quds, but the majority of the population disagrees with murdering innocent civilians in the name of Allah. I think someone would tip us off, because our ear is definitely close to the ground in Iran right now for a multitude of reasons.

I think a great point for my argument is that Zawahiri has practically been confirmed as taking refuge in Pakistan. If he feels safe there, why wouldn't bin Laden? I think they are both sipping chai with ISI operatives in some mud walled compound northwest of Peshawar.

[LR27]

Interesting article...

Does Iran Harbor Osama bin Laden?

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/dr-rachel-ehrenfeld/does-iran-harbor-osama-bi_b_182026.html

[Richard]

Anybody look to see who's in Lenin's Tomb lately? Them Russkies are a sneaky buncha bastards and - unlike the Iranians, Iraqis, Pakis, any of them Stans, polecatus washintonium, and the NYT - will lie to ya in a heartbeat. ;)

Richard's $.02 :munchin

[LR27]

Anybody look to see who's in Lenin's Tomb lately? Them Russkies are a sneaky buncha bastards and - unlike the Iranians, Iraqis, Pakis, any of them Stans, polecatus washintonium, and the NYT - will lie to ya in a heartbeat. ;)

Richard's $.02 :munchin
Very true. The source has no real credibility, but it is an interesting lead that is worth looking into, IMO.

[longrange1947]

Longrange27 - If source is not credible, then why would it be worth looking into?

If you are going to use half of my name, then spend at least half your time investigating through serious sites. Huffington is laughable.

[DinDinA-2]

Perhpaps it is due to my aging brain...but it would be much easier to follow who is who if Longrange27 would change his name.

How about it? This is not the first time this has come to mind.

[Team Sergeant]

Longrange27 - If source is not credible, then why would it be worth looking into?

If you are going to use half of my name, then spend at least half your time investigating through serious sites. Huffington is laughable.


I agree with Longrange1947, NYT, huffington, what next "national inquirer" "enquirer" "people" & MTV for news ????;)

Longrange27, you're reading all the same crap the madonna, george clooney and paris hilton read each morning.

I think it's time for a name change..... pick one and PM me.

Team Sergeant

[CoLawman]

I agree with Longrange1947, NYT, huffington, what next "national inquirer" "enquirer" "people" & MTV for news ????;)

Longrange27, you're reading all the same crap the madonna, george clooney and paris hilton read each morning.

I think it's time for a name change..... pick one and PM me.

Team Sergeant

LMAO!

[LR27]

I agree with Longrange1947, NYT, huffington, what next "national inquirer" "enquirer" "people" & MTV for news ????;)

Longrange27, you're reading all the same crap the madonna, george clooney and paris hilton read each morning.

I think it's time for a name change..... pick one and PM me.

Team Sergeant
Ouch! If I knew I was going to stir up the hornet's nest, I wouldn't have posted it.

LR1947, I didn't think I was dishonoring the call sign. I just feel if there is any possible lead into finding the most wanted man in the world, we should look into it. I'm not saying we should send in an ODA because some Saudi said he met bin Laden. But we should at least consider it as a possibility. If he is actually there, it would be a tragedy if we didn't send a local source to look into it.

For the record, I picked the name because it was a call sign, not because I wanted to imitate any other members of this forum. I look to LR1947 for wisdom and advice because he has spent quite a few more years behind glass than I have. If it is confusing to anyone, all you have to do is look under the name. Big difference between QP and Auxiliary.

TS, my shooting skills are still up to par. You mind if I keep the name and keep my mouth closed for awhile?

:D

PM sent.

[Pete]

The leader of Pakistan says Osama dead. The leader of the regional Jihadists says not so fast.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2009/may/01/bin-laden-is-dead-again/

Kalam? Brrrrrr, some folks spent a little time there one winter. The town ain't that big.

[Team Sergeant]

The leader of Pakistan says Osama dead. The leader of the regional Jihadists says not so fast.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2009/may/01/bin-laden-is-dead-again/

Kalam? Brrrrrr, some folks spent a little time there one winter. The town ain't that big.

SGM Billy Waugh said "osama bin stupid" was given a dirt nap in 2002, that and the fact no one has seen him since 2002, only heard him, speaks volumes.

[Richard]

It looks like they found him. Here's the latest UCAV photo of the area where the CIA thinks he's holed up. ;)

Richard's $.02 :munchin

[greenberetTFS]

It looks like they found him. Here's the latest UCAV photo of the area where the CIA thinks he's holed up.

Richard's $.02

Oh, that was a great post Richard......I saw him right away,he's the guy(as plain as hell) in the 13th row from the top, going from right to left in the 19th position......Right? :p This has got to satisfy any of those doubters that think he's dead. :eek: But, the National Inquirer and Star said that picture was his graduation photo, so who to believe! :rolleyes:

GB TFS :munchin

[civilian]

Saw report that Bin Ladin's youngest son may have been killed recently by a hellfire missile in Pak on a couple different news outlet. I found it interesting that the intel official mentioned that it may have been possible that the son may been held in Iran under house arrest. My theory/vote/opinion, whatever several months ago and a few pages back, was that Bin Ladin could be in a compound under similar circumstances Iran. I understand the prevailing wisdom is that no one has seen him for a very long time. I couldn't name one reason why it would benefit them to withhold showing Bin Ladin in a video. Could Iran be giving him medical care and preventing him from leaving or making videos? I'm amazed it has gone on this long. I know I'm not offering anything new here and has been discussed, but thought I would keep the question current on this thread since there is a poll here on his supposed condition or whereabouts.

[Anevolution]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100124/ap_on_re_mi_ea/ml_al_qaida_airline_attack
V/r
Anevolution

[Team Sergeant]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100124/ap_on_re_mi_ea/ml_al_qaida_airline_attack
V/r
Anevolution

There was no way to verify the voice on the audio message was actually bin Laden, but it resembled previous recordings "attributed" to him.

bin laden has bin dead since 2002. If bin stupid can release an "audio" he can release an "audio/video" just as easily. IMO the "audio" release is for the unintelligent islamic cowards that require something to "hold" onto in their fight against the West.

His inability to do so since 2002 proves to me he's very dead.

It's time the United States declares his death and that we killed him way back in 2002.

[nousdefions]

I'm with you TS. I always say, when asked, that he "assumed room temperature" at Tora Bora.

[mojaveman]

Based upon further research I change my vote from alive to very likely deceased.

[mark46th]

I agree he is taking a permanent dirt nap....

[wet dog]

I'm voting he's dead.

[Marina]

If he's been dead since Tora Bora, don't we look a little stupid? Especially now - the Afghanistan surge, Karzai election, Pakistan double game, etc.

I hate to say this but I think I'm becoming an isolationist. Let the world take care of itself for a while.

Let's all go to Mexico!

[wet dog]

I hate to say this but I think I'm becoming an isolationist. Let the world take care of itself for a while.

Let's all go to Mexico!

Mexico is tough terrain and full of bandits. It also only narrows and that makes me feel uncomfortable. I'm moving north the Canada.

[Team Sergeant]

If he's been dead since Tora Bora, don't we look a little stupid? Especially now - the Afghanistan surge, Karzai election, Pakistan double game, etc.

I hate to say this but I think I'm becoming an isolationist. Let the world take care of itself for a while.

Let's all go to Mexico!

How do you figure we look stupid? I can think (and I've posted) a lot of reasons to keep a lid on us killing the islamic coward known a bin laden.

Being "isolationist" is why this started, we should have killed him while bill clinton was in office receiving his BJ from monica lewinsky.

Have you forgotten who started this fight?

[Marina]

TS, respectfully, the rhetoric we use to justify war on terror rings hollow if Bin Laden is dead. If OBL is dead, then we won let's move on. We look naive by continuing to invest billions in re-making countries that play us in order to entrench their own corrupt leaders.

That's not to say we shouldn't assist foreign nations in developing their own indig capacity for representative government, economic growth, and internal security. It's time for a more selective approach to countering the threat of Salafi jihadis and regimes who use them against US interests.

But grand scale nation building is silly, expensive and ineffective. AFG and Iraq will progress in their own way on their own timeline.

We should re-direct some resources to near-term threats like narco terror in Mexico.

[GratefulCitizen]

If OBL is dead, then we won let's move on. We look naive by continuing to invest billions in re-making countries that play us in order to entrench their own corrupt leaders.


Just because we declare victory doesn't mean that the enemy will accept it.

[Anevolution]

TS, respectfully, the rhetoric we use to justify war on terror rings hollow if Bin Laden is dead. If OBL is dead, then we won let's move on. We look naive by continuing to invest billions in re-making countries that play us in order to entrench their own corrupt leaders.
That's not to say we shouldn't assist foreign nations in developing their own indig capacity for representative government, economic growth, and internal security. It's time for a more selective approach to countering the threat of Salafi jihadis and regimes who use them against US interests.
But grand scale nation building is silly, expensive and ineffective. AFG and Iraq will progress in their own way on their own timeline.
We should re-direct some resources to near-term threats like narco terror in Mexico.

You can't be serious. Or are your really that naive to think if he's dead the GWOT is over, like there are no other bag guys who wish us harm in that AO. Your logic is dumfounding.

V/r
Anevolution

[T-Rock]

IMO, it would be a grievous strategic error on our part to focus solely on the Salafist threat, adherents to the ideology of Shariah are our enemies…

[Team Sergeant]

TS, respectfully, the rhetoric we use to justify war on terror rings hollow if Bin Laden is dead. If OBL is dead, then we won let's move on. We look naive by continuing to invest billions in re-making countries that play us in order to entrench their own corrupt leaders.

That's not to say we shouldn't assist foreign nations in developing their own indig capacity for representative government, economic growth, and internal security. It's time for a more selective approach to countering the threat of Salafi jihadis and regimes who use them against US interests.

But grand scale nation building is silly, expensive and ineffective. AFG and Iraq will progress in their own way on their own timeline.

We should re-direct some resources to near-term threats like narco terror in Mexico.

I agree with you there. I think we should have and continue to deal a serious ass-whooping to anyone that attacks us and then leave.
I don't believe in "nation-building" when the "collective intelligence" of the nation we're attempting to build is just above a troop of chimpanzees.
IMO Most ME islamic dictatorships are about 2-5 hundred years behind the US and I personally would like to see them stay there.

[Richard]

Pretty much what it all boils down to when you consider the historical record of it all...

One day an out-of-work mime is visiting the zoo and attempts to earn some money as a street performer.

However, as soon as he starts to draw a crowd, the zookeeper grabs him and drags him into his office.

The zookeeper explains to the mime that the zoo's most popular attraction, a gorilla, has died suddenly. The keeper fears that attendance at the zoo will fall off. He offers the mime a job to dress up as the gorilla until they can get another one. The mime accepts.

The next morning, before the crowd arrives, the mime puts on the gorilla suit and enters the cage. He discovers that it's a great job. He can sleep all he wants, play and make fun of people and he draws bigger crowds than he ever did as a mime.

However, eventually the crowds tire of him and he gets bored just swinging on tires. He begins to notice that the people are paying more attention to the lion in the cage next to his.

Not wanting to lose the attention of his audience, he climbs to the top of his cage, crawls across a partition, and dangles from the top to the lion's cage. Of course, this makes the lion furious, but the crowd loves it.

At the end of the day the zookeeper comes and gives the mime a raise for being such a good attraction as a gorilla.

Well, this goes on for some time. The mime keeps taunting the lion, the crowds grow larger, and his salary keeps going up. Then one terrible day when he is dangling over the furious lion, he slips and falls. The mime is terrified. The lion gathers itself and prepares to pounce. The mime is so scared that he begins to run round and round the cage with the lion close behind.

Finally, the mime starts screaming and yelling, "Help, help me!", but the lion is quick and pounces. The mime soon finds himself flat on his back looking up at the angry lion and the lion says, "Shut up you idiot! Do you want to get us both fired?"

And so it goes...

Richard's jaded $.02 :munchin

[greenberetTFS]

Anyone see todays paper?............. :eek: He's upset about Global Warming!!!!!!! :rolleyes:

Big Teddy :munchin

[Marina]

Pretty much what it all boils down to when you consider the historical record of it all...

"Shut up you idiot! Do you want to get us both fired?"


There's actually a book (fiction) about the war on terror with that theme, Outsourced. I read it a while back. Kind of takes you through the whole thing then ends up IIRC with the good guy and the bad guy in a tent in the Hindu Kush. The bad guy's a ruse to keep the government contracts flowing. The good guy ends up getting a fat contract to keep quiet.

[DevilSide]

I think the guy is dead, I dont have very much experience in this but if he were alive I think we would have a tougher challenge. Al-Qaeda is a cluster and the only thing I hear about is IED's and insurgents getting killed in firefights. I seen what Mujahideen did to the Soviets when they had stable leadership, even if it was supported by us at the time, and I believe Al-Qaeda would be more effective if he were around. Again, just my best opinion at the moment.

[spherojon]

http://www.military.com/news/article/holder-us-hopes-to-take-bin-laden-alive.html?ESRC=army.nl


April 15, 2010
Associated Press

WASHINGTON - Under pressure from Republican critics, Attorney General Eric Holder said Wednesday the U.S. still hopes to capture and interrogate Osama bin Laden but expects the al-Qaida leader won't be taken alive.

Testifying before the Senate Judiciary Committee, the attorney general was peppered with questions about terrorism issues, including the planned shutdown of the Guantanamo Bay detention center and where those suspects should be sent for trial. The hearing didn't have the confrontations that marked his appearance last month before House lawmakers, however.

During the earlier hearing, questions about what legal rights might be granted to suspected terrorists led Holder to tell lawmakers the chances of capturing the al-Qaida leader alive were very slim and "we will be reading Miranda rights to the corpse of Osama bin Laden."

On Wednesday Holder again tried to deflect hypothetical questions about what would happen were bin Laden taken alive.

The committee's senior Republican, Jeff Sessions of Alabama, insisted the U.S. needs a policy on how to handle bin Laden, particularly whether he should be read his Miranda rights - including the right to remain silent and the right to an attorney.

Holder said there would be no need to read bin Laden his rights if captured, because the warning is only legally required to allow the use of incriminating statements made by suspects after they are caught. In bin Laden's case, Holder said, there is a wealth of incriminating evidence making further statements unnecessary to convict him.

"We have sufficient information, statements from bin Laden, so that there is no reason to Mirandize him at all, and you can still bring his case," Holder said.

Since the capture and questioning of a Nigerian man charged with trying to blow up a Detroit-bound airliner on Christmas, many Republicans have argued that terror suspects should not be read their Miranda rights by FBI agents, but instead should be questioned by military or intelligence officials.

The Obama administration contends its policies are more effective in fighting terrorism than those of the Bush administration. Republicans charge that the Democrats are treating terrorists lightly by not subjecting more of them to military trials.

Holder said his remarks last month stemmed from reports that bin Laden's security guards are under instructions not to let him be taken alive if cornered by U.S. forces.

Shortly after he made those comments in March, the top U.S. commander in Afghanistan said it remains the goal of U.S. troops to capture bin Laden alive and bring him to justice.

Bin Laden has been an international fugitive for more than 10 years - yet government officials and lawmakers spent much of Wednesday's three-hour hearing debating how, not if, he will be captured.

Democratic Sen. Herb Kohl of Wisconsin was unsuccessful in trying to pin Holder down on when the Guantanamo prison would be closed.

Holder said that depends in part on Congress providing money to build another facility. An alternative prison is currently planned for Illinois.

"We have to have an option, and that will require congressional support," he said.

Holder did get some public support from a longtime critic, Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C.

Graham has taken on an important negotiating role with the White House on terror issues, and said at Wednesday's hearing that he supports putting some terror suspects on trial in federal courts.

The senator got Holder to admit that the administration does not want to send any more terror suspects to Guantanamo. That presents a potential problem in how to deal with terrorists captured overseas.

"We are basically a nation without a viable jail," said Graham.

Holder said he wants to work with Congress on a new prison, which Graham called "music to my ears."

While the two stressed the areas where they agreed, Graham is so far the lone Republican willing to deal with the administration on the issue. It is less certain whether the administration can strike any deal on terror policies that has enough votes to pass Congress, particularly in an election year.

Republicans repeatedly pressed Holder over concerns he is risking U.S. security by placing some terror suspects in the federal criminal court system.

"Pretending that terrorists can safely be treated as common criminals will not make it so," said Sessions.

Holder announced last November that reputed Sept. 11 attack mastermind Khalid Sheikh Mohammed and four accused co-conspirators would face trial in New York. The White House stopped that effort, and is now preparing to put those suspects before a military commission, as the Bush administration had originally planned.

The attorney general insisted that New York is still a possible site for the terror trial, though White House officials have privately said that won't happen.

Democrats were quick to defend Holder, saying Republicans were playing politics with terrorism in a way they had not when George W. Bush was president.

"I have never seen anything quite like this," said Sen. Dianne Feinstein, chairwoman of the Senate Intelligence Committee. "The record is ignored. It doesn't matter that the Bush administration brought 200 terrorists to justice" in federal courts.

Well, at least he's optimistic.

[Ret10Echo]

Bin Laden had 'no clue' about Sept. 11 retaliation
April 27, 2010 - 5:31am
J.J. Green, wtop.com

WASHINGTON - Osama bin Laden had no idea the U.S. would hit al-Qaida as hard as it has since the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks, a former bin Laden associate tells WTOP in an exclusive interview.
"I'm 100 percent sure they had no clue about what was going to happen," says Noman Benotman, who was head of the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group in the summer of 2000.
"What happened after the 11th of September was beyond their imagination, " says Benotman, who adds that al-Qaida thought the U.S. was a "paper tiger."
Sitting on the floor at bin Laden's compound in Kandahar, Afghanistan during a meeting the summer before the attacks, Benotman shocked bin Laden and more than 200 other international jihadist leaders by telling the al-Qaida leader his jihadi strategy was "a total failure."
Benotman, a highly regarded associate of bin Laden's at the time, says he surprised him again by rebuffing a plea for help.
"He asked for my help. Bin Laden asked me personally, you know. I responded immediately on the spot ...'No. I'm not going to help you.'"
Bin Laden was stunned.
"Because he used to like to sit next to me, you know. My right hand side," Benotman says.
The seating location meant he was someone bin Laden respected.
Benotman says he spoke frankly because his reputation allowed him to.
"I've spent time in the front line engaging with the enemy more than bin Laden and [Ayman Al-]Zawahiri and the entire group of al-Qaida."
Zawahiri laughed when he warned those at the 2000 meeting that the U.S. response would be swift, hard and long, Benotman says.
Benotman attributes al-Qaida's overconfident attitude to the United States' response to al-Qaida attacks on its in embassies in Nairobi, Kenya and Dar es Salaam, Tanzania in 1998.
Zawahiri, according to Benotman, expected only a missile attack.
"When they attacked the embassies in East Africa, they estimated the U.S. launched 75 cruise missiles and eight people got killed. So they said this time, maybe they will launch 200 and they laughed about this."
Benotman's assessment is backed up by a former Central Intelligence Agency officer, who was active in the fight against al-Qaida.
The officer, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, says "several captured terrorists have said publicly that al-Qaida never expected the towers to fall. Their goal was to frighten people and impact the U.S. economy, so they really didn't plan for the massive response the U.S. launched."
Bin Laden got more than one warning, says Benotman.
"I told him several times before the Sept. 11th attacks that if you do this, the U.S. is going to retaliate in a very harsh way. At least twice I reminded him about the serious orders he was given by Mullah Omar, the leader of the Afghan Taliban to stop fighting the U.S., and he disobeyed the order."
Now living in London and openly campaigning against organizations like al-Qaida, Benotman - according to some - is simply trying to avoid going to jail in his native Libya.
"I would like to believe that bin Laden was shocked and dismayed by what we did after 9/11, but I come hard up against an awful lot of evidence that that's exactly what he wanted," says Michael Scheuer, former head of the CIA's Osama bin Laden unit.
Scheuer questions whether Benotman is speaking out freely.
"Clearly, Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi is holding a hammer over his head," Scheuer says, noting some of Benotman's ex-LIFG colleagues are in prison and Benotman still has relatives in Libya.
Benotman, who still believes in the commitment Jihad requires, laughs at the notion he's afraid of being arrested.
"I'm not afraid of the Americans or any other country. My speaking out is a conscious decision and it's based on my entire experience and understanding of jihadism."
Not only does Benotman reject al-Qaida's ideology, but he says "killing civilians is a crime. I don't care if it's Jews, Christians, Muslims or anyone. It's a crime and we shouldn't help them (al Qaida)."

[Team Sergeant]

Bin Laden had 'no clue' about Sept. 11 retaliation
April 27, 2010 - 5:31am
J.J. Green, wtop.com

WASHINGTON - Osama bin Laden had no idea the U.S. would hit al-Qaida as hard as it has since the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks, a former bin Laden associate tells WTOP in an exclusive interview.
"I'm 100 percent sure they had no clue about what was going to happen," says Noman Benotman, who was head of the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group in the summer of 2000.
"What happened after the 11th of September was beyond their imagination, " says Benotman, who adds that al-Qaida thought the U.S. was a "paper tiger."
"

If the al qaida cowards could acutally read they'd know the same thing was said long before........ not being able to read is a terrible thing.:munchin

"I Fear All We Have Done is Awaken a Sleeping Giant and Fill Him with a Terrible Resolve!"
Credited to Japanese Admiral Isoroku Yamamoto


Stupid is as stupid does.

[Pete]

Anybody hear any wise statements from 'Ol Sammy Boy the past 10 days or so?



You'd figure he'd have something to say about events in Egypt.

[perdurabo]

I hate to say this but I think I'm becoming an isolationist. Let the world take care of itself for a while.


Isolationism is a nice thought, but I don't believe that reality would pan out in our favor. Not everyone wants the style of governing that the US provides. Some people will gladly live under oppressive regimes for centuries.

We need to keep our hands dirty. I don't believe everything needs to be overt, though. SF, CIA, etc play a critical role. Think Pakistan, Egypt and Yemen.

Then again, I'm just a puke in an armchair who's never set foot in any of the aforementioned countries, so maybe you shouldn't pay me any attention.

[Sdiver]

Bump.

[The Reaper]

Game over.

Adios, MF.

TR

[dr. mabuse]

*

[John_Chrichton]

Hope Bin Turd is in hell, eternally boiling in pig's blood.

[Team Sergeant]

Dead since 2002. Most likely killed his daughter and took hr DNA.....

[cletusthpipeman]

He may get his virgins, but the big man forgot to tell OBL that they are the butt fucking types. Rot away you DMF.

[Roguish Lawyer]

Bump.

Nice, LMAO

[Blitzzz (RIP)]

PJs, Marsoc, Seals, "operators" no less...

My second thought/hope is that he passed slowly and screaming loudly ....

[dr. mabuse]

*

[Tress]

I may be a little late posting on this thread, but my vote goes for him being dead. :D

Or am I just shooting fish in a barrel? :D

[Rose.11b]

.... Obama wants to be re-elected?

[greyfox]

I'm not going to believe it until Obama releases a death certificate...

[Hand]

.... Obama wants to be re-elected?

Cant help but notice the fortuitous timing of this for his excellency.
Birth certificate = shut Trump and the birthers up,
Osama dead = pump up his original voting base, maybe even win a few new fans.

I hope Im wrong.

[11B10V]

Did anyone ask Chuck Norris if he really did this or not?

[Dohhunter]

First post, does anyone know if this will be part of Discovery's Shark Week?

[PSM]

First post, does anyone know if this will be part of Discovery's Shark Week?

You're about to be. ;)

Pat

[Dohhunter]

You're about to be. ;)

Pat

I've got to get that excitement gene in check, eh? (http://www.professionalsoldiers.com/forums/showpost.php?p=389703&postcount=3091)

[ErikTheRed]

A job well done to all those involved in the operation.

Hope they never bury the fucker...

[john88]

From what i read SEAL team 6 made lite work out of OBL. This is a very proud day for us as a Nation, it should be a holiday. I can only imagine how proud those brave Special Ops guys must feel knowing they personally took out the most wanted man in the world. No airstrikes or smart bombs, just a small group of elite warriors doing our Nations dirty business. This is also a salute to all service members but especially our Special Operations Community. Great Job..

[badshot]

A job well done to all those involved in the operation.

Hope they never bury the fucker...

No worries...he's probably surrounded by 72 Herpes ridden whores with blue waffle infections :D

[Dohhunter]

No worries...he's probably surrounded by 72 crab ridden whores with blue waffle infections :D

Fixed.