Petraeus/Nagl/Kilucullen approach to counter-insurgency is antiquated/misguided

[RTK]

From the Blog of John Robb:

A beguiling false narrative currently circulating throughout the media, is that the US surge in Baghdad may work given time (or at worst keep violence in check at current levels). In reality, things in Iraq are about to get much worse over the next year and approach what could be called a second front. The main reason for this is that the Petraeus/Nagl/Kilucullen approach to counter-insurgency is antiquated/misguided and will, soon, radically increase the level of resistance rather than lessen it.

I agree with nothing he said.

I've only spent 24 months there, but I can't see where Robb is coming from at all. Especially when he ends the post with a plug for his new book.

I'm not sure of his rationale, other than SE of Baghdad is Shia, on why attacks will increase in the SE when most attacks take place from Hillah northward.

Anyone know his Special Operations background?

[x-factor]

I'd like to see the whole article...do you have a link?

Off the top of my head, the only thing I can think of that might account for such an opinion (specifically the term 'antiquated') is that classic COIN doctrine (derived from the Brits in Malaya, the US in Vietnam, etc) didn't have to deal with the communications technology (Internet, 24 hour satellite news, etc) that is part of today's insurgency.

[jbour13]

You cannot attribute a conventional doctrine to UW and COIN. They are always a work in progress and are lacking in the most basic approaches. The primary reason SF is good at what they do is they are UW masters. The big Army is lacking and should consult SF more often than they do. IMO the big Army is not doing SF and those in the UW realm any justice without consultation.

Big ops without prior clarification and planning do not make the job easy. Nothing like someone on your own side killing your "people" that you've worked for and helped.

I've read the New 23-24 and do not agree with it. It may shed light on the COIN strategy and give tips to those that are new to it, but it is not the end all product. As I stated before, COIN is a work in progress.

[Team Sergeant]

From the Blog of John Robb:



I agree with nothing he said.

I've only spent 24 months there, but I can't see where Robb is coming from at all. Especially when he ends the post with a plug for his new book.

I'm not sure of his rationale, other than SE of Baghdad is Shia, on why attacks will increase in the SE when most attacks take place from Hillah northward.

Anyone know his Special Operations background?

Never heard of him, then again there were only about 100,000 global terrorism experts born on 12 Sept 2001. Funny not a damn one of the "experts" predicted the events or the terrorist "tribe" that perpetrated those crimes before hand.

I don't read books written by self made "experts", especailly terrorism experts.

TS

[RTK]

I've spoken with GEN Petraeus, LTC Nagl, and LTC Kilcullen within the past 6 months - some quite a few time more than others.

This guy is way out in left field.

Attacks in Baghdad are down (expected).

Attacks outside are slightly up (expected).

Audacity of attacks is up (expected).

Is Baghdad being secured? Yes. Is it as fast as the casual observation would wish it to be? No.

For those of us who have been there or done that, the last 8 weeks has been monumental. We should be so lucky that it continue.

I wish GEN P was in charge from the start.

[Ambush Master]

Never heard of him, then again there were only about 100,000 global terrorism experts born on 12 Sept 2001. Funny not a damn one of the "experts" predicted the events or the terrorist "tribe" that perpetrated those crimes before hand.

I don't read books written by self made "experts", especailly terrorism experts.

TS

Yup!! Got to keep it in perspective...EX= a Hasbeen...spert= a Drip Under Extreme Pressure!!!:D

[Airbornelawyer]

His bio indicates, though not explicitly, that he was an AFSOC C-130 driver:

Bachelor of Science in Astronautical Engineering, The United States Air Force Academy, Colorado Springs CO (honors program)
Undergraduate Pilot Training, The United States Air Force, Reese Air Force Base, Lubbock TX
Advanced transport pilot training
etc.

With all due respect to what MC-130 or AC-130 pilots do, which is certainly something I can't do, it isn't really what most people think of as counterinsurgency or counterterrorism expertise, and this resume item just sounds like misleading spin: Department of Defense Counter-terrorism. John served in a tier one counter-terrorist unit that worked closely with Delta and Seal Team 6. John participated in global operations as a mission commander, pilot, and mission planner (El Salvador, Panama, Colombia, Egypt, etc.). Numerous medals for exemplary service.

Rest here: http://globalguerrillas.typepad.com/about.html

[jbour13]

It may sound misleading but the organization he did come from had a close relationship with SOF to include those listed in his Bio.

I do see your point of not having "on hand" experience, but he does have at least some credentials supporting those (very closely) that do CT missions.

Not a defense in the least, just for clarification. FWIW

[Team Sergeant]

Department of Defense Counter-terrorism. John served in a tier one counter-terrorist unit that worked closely with Delta and Seal Team 6. John participated in global operations as a mission commander, pilot, and mission planner (El Salvador, Panama, Colombia, Egypt, etc.). Numerous medals for exemplary service.


I once knew a guy, that knew a guy that peed in a urinal that a guy from delta force and SEAL team six urinated in just moments before……

This accounts for about 99,999 of the 100,000 terrorism experts I posted about earlier.

How I love those that make a living off the HARD EARNED reputations (riding the coattails) of the Army Special Forces and Navy SEALS.

As far as I know only two units have a “counter-terrorist” mission. (Combating-terrorism or anti-terrorism is not the same as counter-terrorism.)

Counterterrorism (CT). These are operations that include the offensive measures taken to prevent, deter, preempt, and respond to terrorism. SOF's role and additive capability is to conduct offensive measures within DOD's overall combatting terrorism efforts. SOF conduct CT missions as special operations by covert, clandestine, or low visibility means. SOF's activities within CT include, but are not limited to, intelligence operations, attacks against terrorist networks and infrastructures, hostage rescue, recovery of sensitive material from terrorist organizations, and non-kinetic activities aimed at the ideologies or motivations that spawn terrorism:

Intelligence Operations. These are operations to collect, exploit, and report information on terrorist organizations, personnel, assets, and/or activities. SOF have the capability to conduct these operations in an overt, covert, and/or clandestine manner.

Network and Infrastructure Attacks. These are operations that involve preemptive strikes against terrorist organizations with the objective of destroying, disorganizing, or disarming terrorist organizations before they can strike targets of national interest.

Hostage or Sensitive Materiel Recovery. These are operations conducted to rescue hostages and/or recover sensitive materiel from terrorist control, requiring capabilities not normally found in conventional military units. The safety of the hostages and preventing destruction of the sensitive materiel are essential mission requirements.

Non-Kinetic Activities. These are actions that are focused on defeating the ideologies or motivations that spawn terrorism by non-kinetic means. These could include, but are not limited to, PSYOP, IO, CA operations, UW and/or FID.


Team Sergeant

[Peregrino]

TS - I'm with you on this one. The AF has pushed their "expertise" in UW (all aspects) since the Air Commando days. They actually have a career track with an academic facility and a well developed education component at Hurlburt. I've never seen where their "air war" experts have anything more than an academic understanding of "ground truth" UW (that includes the CT discussion we're having here). I guess it's something for the AFSOF pilots/aircrew to do while they're waiting their turn to get back into an airplane. That's my .02 and I'm sticking to it! :p Peregrino