SouthernDZ
02-28-2007, 10:16
Terrorism Monitor, In-Depth Analysis of al-Qaeda and the War on Terror
The Jamestown Foundation
Editor's Note: In light of today's attack on Bagram Air Base in Afghanistan during the visit of U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney, The Jamestown Foundation is releasing this featured article by Dr. Brian Glyn Williams on the suicide bombing patterns of the Taliban. This article will also appear in Thursday's issue of Terrorism Monitor.
Cheney Attack Reveals Taliban Suicide Bombing Patterns
By Dr. Brian Glyn Williams and Cathy Young
The information for this article came from a five-month study of suicide bombings from 2001 to 2007 in Afghanistan. No suicide bombing was listed in the study unless it was corroborated by numerous sources. Sources varied from coalition countries' press releases, open media, al-Qaeda/Taliban websites, U.S. military sources and Afghan news agencies. While the sample analysis of 158 attacks is not definitive, its overall findings are indicative of general Taliban targeting trends.
The recent suicide bombing attack on Bagram Air Base, which killed as many as 15-23 people during the visit of U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney, has highlighted the growing problem of suicide bombers in Afghanistan. While the United States has dismissed the Taliban's claims that they attacked Bagram in an effort to assassinate Cheney, the targeting of a U.S. base fits previous Taliban targeting patterns.
Prior to the Bagram incident, U.S. military and government sources routinely spoke of the "Iraqification" of the Afghan conflict. Recent statistics from U.S. and Afghan agencies seem to support this claim. While Afghanistan had 25 suicide bombings in 2005, in 2006 it experienced as many as 139 suicide attacks. Recent media images from Afghanistan of bombed buses, shattered markets and burnt out U.S. humvees further support the notion that the carnage that has shredded the fabric of Iraqi society has come to the so-called "Forgotten War" in Afghanistan.
If taken at face value, these claims represent a disastrous, if unintended side effect of the invasion of Iraq and bode ill for the upcoming year. Yet despite the mounting evidence that the Iraqi invasion has destabilized Afghanistan via the sharing of Iraqi tactics with Afghan insurgents, the suicide bombing campaign in Afghanistan has its own specific dynamics. It is the little noticed local characteristics that distinguish suicide bombing in Afghanistan from that in the Iraqi theater.
2007: Suicide Bombings…or Suicide?
An analysis of the Taliban's 2007 suicide campaign makes some of these differences glaringly obvious. At first blush, this year's statistics seem to support the notion that suicide bombers are ramping up their attacks in an effort to cause as much Iraqi-style carnage as possible. While it is only seven weeks into the new year, there have already been 21 suicide bombings (or attempts) in Afghanistan. This seems to be a fulfillment of Mullah Hayat Khan's promise to use 2,000 suicide bombers to make 2007 "the bloodiest year" in Afghanistan (al-Jazeera, January 27). Yet a deeper analysis of the suicide bombing attacks carried out since January 1 reveals an altogether different picture.
Astoundingly, of the 21 attacks carried out this year, in 16 cases the only fatality has been the suicide bomber himself. In the 17th case, the suicide bomber succeeded in killing himself and one policeman. In two other cases, the suicide bomber was arrested or shot. This translates to 19 Taliban suicide bombers for one Afghan policeman, hardly an inspiring kill ratio for would-be-suicide bombers. In most of these cases, the suicide bombers attacked foreign convoys on foot or in cars and were unable to inflict casualties on their targets. Typically, the suicide bombers' explosives went off prematurely or their bombs failed to kill coalition troops driving in heavily armored vehicles.
In only three of the 21 cases for 2007 were there notable fatalities. In the first successful case, a suicide bomber killed two Afghan policemen and eight civilians (Camp Salerno, Khost, January 23). In the second case, three policemen were killed (Zherai District, Khost, February 4). In the third case, the February 27 attack on Bagram Air Base while Cheney was visiting, the bomber succeeded in killing 15-23 people (including two to three coalition soldiers). Such numbers hardly compare to Iraq where suicide bombers often carry out synchronized attacks that regularly kill anywhere from 60 to 130 people. Such uninspiring statistics beg the question: what are Afghanistan's suicide bombers doing wrong?
Taliban "Hard Targeting"
While the low death statistics certainly speak to the Taliban bombers' general ineptitude, part of the answer also lies in their targeting patterns which differ from those in Iraq. Iraqi suicide bombers from such jihadi groups as Ansar al-Sunnah and al-Qaeda in Mesopotamia frequently seek to inflict high casualty rates by attacking soft targets, such as crowded markets. Their objective is to cause as much bloodshed as possible, incite sectarian violence and destroy U.S. efforts to construct civil society in Iraq. Afghan suicide bombers, on the other hand, appear to have different objectives and have focused almost exclusively on hard targets (government, police, military). In 2007, for example, the Taliban have attacked foreign or Afghan military/police targets in 16 of their 21 bombings (in three cases the target was undetermined).
This in-depth analysis of 158 Afghan suicide bombings since 2001 shows that this is no anomaly and demonstrates an important point: in only eight of the 158 suicide attacks from 2001-2007 did civilians appear to be the direct target of Afghan bombers. Further scrutiny of these eight civilian attacks reveals an important fact. In two of these instances, the Taliban apologized for inflicting civilian casualties and in one case a Taliban spokesmen actually denied involvement. In four other cases the suicide bombers seem to have been targeting passing military convoys or governmental representatives in crowds; therefore, the high civilian casualties appear to have been unintended "collateral damage." In only two instances were civilians clearly the target of Afghan suicide bombers.
These findings tell us volumes about the Taliban's overall strategy in employing suicide bombing as a tactic. Far from imitating Iraqi insurgent tactics, the Taliban are trying to avoid losing the battle for the hearts and minds of the Afghan people by needlessly killing civilians.
The Jamestown Foundation
Editor's Note: In light of today's attack on Bagram Air Base in Afghanistan during the visit of U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney, The Jamestown Foundation is releasing this featured article by Dr. Brian Glyn Williams on the suicide bombing patterns of the Taliban. This article will also appear in Thursday's issue of Terrorism Monitor.
Cheney Attack Reveals Taliban Suicide Bombing Patterns
By Dr. Brian Glyn Williams and Cathy Young
The information for this article came from a five-month study of suicide bombings from 2001 to 2007 in Afghanistan. No suicide bombing was listed in the study unless it was corroborated by numerous sources. Sources varied from coalition countries' press releases, open media, al-Qaeda/Taliban websites, U.S. military sources and Afghan news agencies. While the sample analysis of 158 attacks is not definitive, its overall findings are indicative of general Taliban targeting trends.
The recent suicide bombing attack on Bagram Air Base, which killed as many as 15-23 people during the visit of U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney, has highlighted the growing problem of suicide bombers in Afghanistan. While the United States has dismissed the Taliban's claims that they attacked Bagram in an effort to assassinate Cheney, the targeting of a U.S. base fits previous Taliban targeting patterns.
Prior to the Bagram incident, U.S. military and government sources routinely spoke of the "Iraqification" of the Afghan conflict. Recent statistics from U.S. and Afghan agencies seem to support this claim. While Afghanistan had 25 suicide bombings in 2005, in 2006 it experienced as many as 139 suicide attacks. Recent media images from Afghanistan of bombed buses, shattered markets and burnt out U.S. humvees further support the notion that the carnage that has shredded the fabric of Iraqi society has come to the so-called "Forgotten War" in Afghanistan.
If taken at face value, these claims represent a disastrous, if unintended side effect of the invasion of Iraq and bode ill for the upcoming year. Yet despite the mounting evidence that the Iraqi invasion has destabilized Afghanistan via the sharing of Iraqi tactics with Afghan insurgents, the suicide bombing campaign in Afghanistan has its own specific dynamics. It is the little noticed local characteristics that distinguish suicide bombing in Afghanistan from that in the Iraqi theater.
2007: Suicide Bombings…or Suicide?
An analysis of the Taliban's 2007 suicide campaign makes some of these differences glaringly obvious. At first blush, this year's statistics seem to support the notion that suicide bombers are ramping up their attacks in an effort to cause as much Iraqi-style carnage as possible. While it is only seven weeks into the new year, there have already been 21 suicide bombings (or attempts) in Afghanistan. This seems to be a fulfillment of Mullah Hayat Khan's promise to use 2,000 suicide bombers to make 2007 "the bloodiest year" in Afghanistan (al-Jazeera, January 27). Yet a deeper analysis of the suicide bombing attacks carried out since January 1 reveals an altogether different picture.
Astoundingly, of the 21 attacks carried out this year, in 16 cases the only fatality has been the suicide bomber himself. In the 17th case, the suicide bomber succeeded in killing himself and one policeman. In two other cases, the suicide bomber was arrested or shot. This translates to 19 Taliban suicide bombers for one Afghan policeman, hardly an inspiring kill ratio for would-be-suicide bombers. In most of these cases, the suicide bombers attacked foreign convoys on foot or in cars and were unable to inflict casualties on their targets. Typically, the suicide bombers' explosives went off prematurely or their bombs failed to kill coalition troops driving in heavily armored vehicles.
In only three of the 21 cases for 2007 were there notable fatalities. In the first successful case, a suicide bomber killed two Afghan policemen and eight civilians (Camp Salerno, Khost, January 23). In the second case, three policemen were killed (Zherai District, Khost, February 4). In the third case, the February 27 attack on Bagram Air Base while Cheney was visiting, the bomber succeeded in killing 15-23 people (including two to three coalition soldiers). Such numbers hardly compare to Iraq where suicide bombers often carry out synchronized attacks that regularly kill anywhere from 60 to 130 people. Such uninspiring statistics beg the question: what are Afghanistan's suicide bombers doing wrong?
Taliban "Hard Targeting"
While the low death statistics certainly speak to the Taliban bombers' general ineptitude, part of the answer also lies in their targeting patterns which differ from those in Iraq. Iraqi suicide bombers from such jihadi groups as Ansar al-Sunnah and al-Qaeda in Mesopotamia frequently seek to inflict high casualty rates by attacking soft targets, such as crowded markets. Their objective is to cause as much bloodshed as possible, incite sectarian violence and destroy U.S. efforts to construct civil society in Iraq. Afghan suicide bombers, on the other hand, appear to have different objectives and have focused almost exclusively on hard targets (government, police, military). In 2007, for example, the Taliban have attacked foreign or Afghan military/police targets in 16 of their 21 bombings (in three cases the target was undetermined).
This in-depth analysis of 158 Afghan suicide bombings since 2001 shows that this is no anomaly and demonstrates an important point: in only eight of the 158 suicide attacks from 2001-2007 did civilians appear to be the direct target of Afghan bombers. Further scrutiny of these eight civilian attacks reveals an important fact. In two of these instances, the Taliban apologized for inflicting civilian casualties and in one case a Taliban spokesmen actually denied involvement. In four other cases the suicide bombers seem to have been targeting passing military convoys or governmental representatives in crowds; therefore, the high civilian casualties appear to have been unintended "collateral damage." In only two instances were civilians clearly the target of Afghan suicide bombers.
These findings tell us volumes about the Taliban's overall strategy in employing suicide bombing as a tactic. Far from imitating Iraqi insurgent tactics, the Taliban are trying to avoid losing the battle for the hearts and minds of the Afghan people by needlessly killing civilians.