Pandemic Flu [Archive] - Page 4 - Professional Soldiers ®

Lanyard

08-09-2009, 01:08

Australia has a few more weeks to go before the peak of their Flu season. In one week 250 kids were admitted to one hospital in Perth.

Western Australia hospitals 'under seige': AMA

4th August 2009, 17:00 WST

A meltdown in West Australian hospitals during peak flu season could have given the federal government an excuse to take them over, says the state branch of the Australian Medical Association.

AMA WA president Gary Geelhoed said WA hospitals had been under siege for the past week, with patients suffering unnecessarily through long waiting times.

Most of the state’s elective surgery arrangements have been cancelled because of a bed shortage and ambulances have been forced to wait outside hospitals because there are no beds to take patients to, Prof Geelhoed said.

“For more than a week, our hospitals have been under siege and the situation is growing more serious by the day,” he said.

Some patients had waited six hours to be seen by a doctor in the emergency department on Monday night and some had to wait 24 hours for a hospital bed, Prof Geelhoed said.

He said the state had no capacity to deal with increased patient numbers during the flu season.

While the ideal situation was to have 85 per cent occupancy rates in hospitals, WA was working at close to 100 per cent capacity, he said.

“We just don’t have capacity in reserve,” Prof Geelhoed said.

“We just cannot do the work, we can’t deal with the sick, we can’t deal with the injured, we can’t deal with fluctuations due to swine flu. The hospitals go into meltdown.”

However, while Health Minister Kim Hames agreed hospitals were under “enormous pressure” he said the State Government was working hard to support them.

Dr Hames conceded while emergency departments were struggling, they were not beyond capacity.

“We have opened up every bed – we’ve got all our nurses working,” Dr Hames said.

“The advice I am getting from hospitals is they are under enormous pressure but are coping well.”

The fundamental problem was a lack of hospital beds across the nation, which has been reduced by 60 per cent in the past 25 years, Prof Geelhoed said.

Cost shifting and buck passing because of the different funding models - some State and some Commonwealth - were a problem, he said.

“The danger is that unless our hospitals can perform better, the Federal Government could have the excuse to take them over and that would be a disaster in our view,” Prof Geelhoed said.

Australian Nursing Federation WA secretary Mark Olson said the AMA should be wary of using the term ‘meltdown’ as it could erode the public’s confidence in WA hospitals.

But Prof Geelhoed said while the Federal Government had identified the problems in the health system, it had failed to fix the problems.

Funding administered by the State Government or smaller local authorities would avoid cost shifting between in and out-patient programs and create more efficiency in the system, Prof Geelhoed said.

LISA CALAUTTI AND AAP

http://www. thewest.com.au/ default.aspx?MenuID=77&ContentID=160036

Lanyard

08-09-2009, 02:26

While some here may be familiar with this interview, as it has been replicated in countless blogs, I think it has generally been taken out of context. The epidemiologist, Tom Jefferson, works for the Cochrane Collaboration which "is a global network of dedicated volunteers, supported by a small staff. We rely on grants and donations, and don't accept conflicted funding." They essentially review common medical practices to see if they really work or not. Jefferson has been in charge of reviewing seasonal influenza vaccine related studies for the past 15 years.

Many have used the interview to point to some shadowy cabal of Pharma/WHO/Public Health Officials that have financial/professional interests in propogating the Flu pandemic scare. While everyone here can draw their own conclusions about the Medical/Phama Complex he does make some very valid points that haven't really been seen much.

1. The oft quoted 30,000-40,000 Common Flu deaths is just an estimate and likely includes as many as "200 different viruses that cause influenza-like illness" and "What I know is that real influenza is systematically overestimated."

2. The reason influenza is so in the public eye is that Pharma likes to sponsor big studies that get published in prestigous journals and the resulting talented/ambitious Dr's are attracted to the field who in turn work on more great well funded studies and get published in prestigeouse journals.

3. The myopic focus of the above is actually dangerous as it creates huge blind spots in research in other fields that might help with SARS (coronavirus), bocavirus and my favorite, the metapneumovirus.

4. The final points are more commonly known; vaccines are expensive, time intensive endevours that are marginally effective as they are tracking a moving and changing target, and handwashing is a very cheap and effective counter measure that also works against a lot of other nasty infections. Masks aren't a bad thought either.

http://www. spiegel.de/ international/world/0,1518,637119,00.html

InTheBlack

08-09-2009, 03:46

Use the original KoolAid packets (the ones you have to add the sugar to).

Didn't know they made it that way !

Richard

08-09-2009, 05:35

On the bright side of all this forecasted gloominess - looks to be a banner year for professional substitute teachers and office temps. ;)

Richard's $.02 :munchin

zpo

08-09-2009, 13:42

Didn't know they made it that way !
I actually thought that was the only way, I haven't been koolaid shopping in awhile. And the only friend I know of that drinks it, boils the water to get more sugar into it...

InTheBlack

08-15-2009, 04:42

What fraction of the cells in one's body actually become infected by influenza virus? I presume that users of these drugs don't drop dead of apoptosis when they get the flu...

From the TV ads I get the impression that osteoporesis drugs have some significant side effects; I wonder if taking them for a short period when one gets flu symptoms is inadvisable or not.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090814/hl_nm/us_flu_drug_1

Fri Aug 14, 6:46 am ET
HONG KONG (Reuters) – Two existing drugs used to treat osteoporosis may be effective in killing influenza viruses, including the new H1N1 swine flu and the H5N1 bird flu viruses, researchers in Hong Kong have found.
The two drugs are pamidronate and zoledronate, which are marketed by Novartis AG under the brand names Aredia and Reclast, respectively.
In their experiment, the researchers exposed human cells that had been infected with the influenza viruses to the two drugs.
They observed that the drugs triggered extra production of a type of white blood cell called yd-T cells, which went on to kill human cells that were infected with the flu viruses.
Flu viruses can only replicate in living human or animal cells and killing infected cells would stop the viruses from replicating, the researchers said.
Professor Lau Yu-lung at the University of Hong Kong's pediatrics and adolescent medicine department described the infected human cells as "factories that will produce viruses."
"These drugs attack the viruses specifically ... This approach kills the factories that are producing viruses."
Malik Peiris, also part of the research team, said the drugs could enhance immune responses of the human body.
That was especially important as flu viruses mutate constantly, which reduces the efficacy of vaccines, he added.
The researchers plan to move next into animal and then human clinical testing.

InTheBlack

08-15-2009, 04:58

Avian Influenza Strain Primes Brain for Parkinson's Disease

http://news.yahoo.com/s/usnw/20090810/pl_usnw/avian_influenza_strain_primes_brain_for_parkinson_ s_disease;_ylt=AudEU.4RNTaaaRhDs3QctdcR.3QA;_ylu=X 3oDMTE2NWRyOGNxBHBvcwMyBHNlYwN5bi1yLWItbGVmdARzbGs DZXYtYXZpYW5pbmZs

SNIP
research from St. Jude Children's Research Hospital.

In the August 10 online early edition of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, researchers reported that mice which survived infection with an H5N1 flu strain were more likely than uninfected mice to develop brain changes associated with neurological disorders like Parkinson's and Alzheimer's diseases. Parkinson's and Alzheimer's involve loss of brain cells crucial to a variety of tasks, including movement, memory and intellectual functioning. The study revealed the H5N1 flu strain caused a 17 percent loss of the same neurons lost in Parkinson's as well as accumulation in certain brain cells of a protein implicated in both diseases.

"This avian flu strain does not directly cause Parkinson's disease, but it does make you more susceptible," said Richard Smeyne, Ph.D., associate member in St. Jude Developmental Neurobiology. Smeyne is the paper's senior author.

SNIP

Smeyne noted the work involved a single strain of the H5N1 flu virus, the A/Vietnam/1203/04 strain.

Early indications are that the H1N1 pandemic strain carries a low neurologic risk, said Richard Webby, Ph.D., director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center for Studies on the Ecology of Influenza in Animals and Birds, which is based at St. Jude. Webby, who is also an associate member of the St. Jude Department of Infectious Diseases, was not involved in the H5N1 study led by Smeyne.

SNIP

St. Jude researchers launched this study nearly three years ago in response to the threat posed by avian flu.

SNIP

the inflammation the infection triggered within the brain continued for months. It was similar to inflammation associated with inherited forms of Parkinson's. Although the tremor and movement problems disappeared as flu symptoms eased, investigators reported that 60 days later mice had lost roughly 17 percent of dopamine-producing cells in SNpc, a structure found in the midbrain.

Researchers also found evidence that the avian flu infection led to over-production of a protein found in the brain cells of individuals with both Alzheimer's and Parkinson's diseases. The protein, alpha-synuclein, collected in H5N1-infected cells throughout the brain, including the midbrain where key dopamine-producing cells are located. There was little protein accumulation in the brain cells of uninfected mice.

The study marks the first time scientists were able to naturally trigger the protein build-up in an experimental Parkinson's system. "The virus activates this protein," Smeyne explained.
SNIP

ZonieDiver

08-15-2009, 15:18

Nothing like the taste of Grape Kool-Aid with the added tang of a metal canteen.:D

TR

During BCT in 1970, we had an "older guy" - must have been 25! - who was called "the professor" because that is what he looked like (as well as the fact that he possessed a college degree). He would put grape "Fizzies" in his canteen! (Remember those?) But the canteen was OD green plastic.

Surf n Turf

08-15-2009, 20:39

This is really going to encourage people to get the vaccination.
What happens when a really safe effective vaccine is developed
Was this on the News --- I must have missed it :mad:
SnT

Leaked letter reveals concern of neurologists over 25 deaths in America.
A warning that the new swine flu jab is linked to a deadly nerve disease has been sent by the Government to senior neurologists in a confidential letter.
The letter from the Health Protection Agency, the official body that oversees public health, has been leaked to The Mail on Sunday, leading to demands to know why the information has not been given to the public before the vaccination of millions of people, including children, begins.
It tells the neurologists that they must be alert for an increase in a brain disorder called Guillain-Barre Syndrome (GBS), which could be triggered by the vaccine.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1206807/Swine-flu-jab-link-killer-nerve-disease-Leaked-letter-reveals-concern-neurologists-25-deaths-America.html

mugwump

08-16-2009, 10:40

The letter refers to the 1976 vaccine and not the current ones. This is very old news but certainly something to consider with the new vaccines. The 25 deaths were in 52 million people immunized (24% of the US herd). There were many additional cases of less serious GBS.

Comparing 1976 apples to apples: If 1/3 of the 52MM people had caught H1N1 and there was a 0.001 case fatality rate (the mildest of the projected CFRs for the current strain of swine flu and the one I currently think is the most probable) then 17,160 of those 52MM would have died from the flu. You have to consider that no vaccine confers 100% immunity (far from it actually) so not all of those 17,160 would have been save by the vaccine.

If the current 0.0035 (0.35%) fatality rate currently occurring in Argentina is applied then 60,600 of the 52MM people vaccinated would have otherwise died from the flu. If 2.4% died (the 1918 CFR) then 429,000 of the vaccinated 52MM would have died from flu.

Whether it's a good risk depends on the tox profile of the vaccine (currently unknown) and the eventual CFR (obviously also unknown). A crap shoot in other words.

From the current WHO release on H1N1 vaccines:

Special safety concerns
Influenza vaccines have been used for more than 60 years and have an established record of safety in all age groups. While some serious adverse events have been reported, these have been rare.

Nonetheless, special safety issues will inevitably arise during a pandemic when vaccine is administered on a massive scale. For example, adverse events too rare to show up even in a large clinical trial may become apparent when very large numbers of people receive a pandemic vaccine.

Some adverse events will be coincidental – that is, associated in time with vaccine administration, yet not directly caused by the vaccine. Genuine adverse events directly caused by the vaccine may also occur, but cannot be predicted in advance. Given the safety record of seasonal vaccines, such events are expected to be rare.

Time constraints mean that clinical data at the time when pandemic vaccines are first administered will inevitably be limited. Further testing of safety and effectiveness will need to take place after administration of the vaccine has begun.

For these reasons, WHO advises all countries administering pandemic vaccines to conduct intensive monitoring for safety and efficacy, and many countries have plans in place for doing so. On the positive side, mass vaccination campaigns can generate significant safety data within a few weeks.

International sharing of data from such post-marketing surveillance will be vital in guiding risk-benefit assessments and determining whether changes in vaccination policies are needed. WHO has developed standardized protocols for data collection and reporting in real-time, and will communicate findings to the international community via its web site.

Stras

08-16-2009, 11:39

Nothing like the taste of Grape Kool-Aid with the added tang of a metal canteen.:DTR

in addition to the water purification tablet laced water from an Army Water Buffalo.

jasonglh

08-19-2009, 01:26

This was in my email box today from Skyscape: H1N1 Can Cause Neurologic Complications in Children (http://www.skyscape.com/estore/HealthDayArticle.aspx?categoryName=Emergency%20Med icine&ArticleId=629364&WT.mc_id=38740)

On a related front the next county over has an outbreak working its way through the Job Corp training center with 50 some cases. We have 1 confirmed case here that made the local paper the same day we got the hospital wide email saying to refer all phone calls about the swine flu to the health dept. I think the phone system was locked up for the better part of the day with every dipshit calling. We now have 2 self contained breathing hoods that make me look like the white Darth Vader or a bee keeper. We were supposed to get 20 of them 2 years ago from some federal grant which I am sure will arrive sometime after hell freezes over.

Whats really frightening is the ignorance of the facts about the current virus from the MD's and management who are supposed to be having meetings about it.

Surf n Turf

08-20-2009, 17:14

Why would a parent enroll their child into such a program as a guinea pig.
Shouldn’t these “trial programs” be conducted in a “controlled study”.
SnT

IPS Research in Oklahoma City is the first Oklahoma company to conduct the vaccination trials and will begin enrolling study patients Aug. 17. said IPS Research medical director Dr. Louise Thurman. She anticipates about 200 children ages 3 to 8 will be able to enroll.
Nationwide, 12,000 children will be given the vaccine for the trial, she said. The company should know today whether it will conduct adult trials, too.
http://newsok.com/state-kids-to-get-shot-at-swine-flu-vaccine/article/3387609

HEADLINE IS WRONG --
12,000 Oklahoma children to be tested with new H1N1 flu vaccine to see any side effects

Because H1N1 flu is a novel virus, parents are concerned as 12,000 children in Oklahoma are going to be tested with vaccinations for H1N1 to see whether there are any serious side effects.
Among the parents' fears are the fear of autism, fear of children becoming paralyzed by novel reactions similar to the syndrome that occured with a different type of swine flu vaccine in 1976.
What happened next is that the great swine flu epidemic of 1976 ceased being reported in the media after a long media blitz to get vaccinated as soon as the paralyzed victims side effects were reported. The reason why is that it took two weeks to a month before the side effects appeared. Referring to the 1976 swine flu vaccination media campaing, the JAMA article notes, "The long onset interval and low prevalence of other preexisting illnesses are consistent with a possible causal association between GBS and influenza vaccine."
As the 12,000 children are being tested in Oklahoma, parents and doctors alike report that there can't be any questions as to whether the vaccines are safe or not. As the children receive the vaccines, the manufacturers of the vaccines won't know until many people are vaccinated what side effects will show up at a later date.
http://www.examiner.com/x-7160-Sacramento-Nutrition-Examiner~y2009m7d28-12000-Oklahoma-children-to-be-tested-with-new-H1N1-flu-vaccine-to-see-any-side-effects

InTheBlack

08-21-2009, 00:10

I have not read anything suggesting that this vaccine is any more dangerous than any other flu vaccine.

Are they exposing the initially vaccinated cohort to a weakened version of H1N1 or to the wild virus?

Plutarch

08-21-2009, 19:19

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090821/ap_on_re_la_am_ca/lt_swine_flu_turkeys

I'm guessing this is bad?

Paslode

08-22-2009, 09:26

Whats really frightening is the ignorance of the facts about the current virus from the MD's and management who are supposed to be having meetings about it.

If it isn't all hype that is frightening, but.....

I have asked my wife from the get go about what being said about it at the hospital. I ask my friend Mark who wife is a nurse what he has heard. I ask my friend Neal who wife is a nurse. I have asked Doctors who are clients of mine.

The response is nothing is going on, the media is blowing out of proportion. And each time I am reminded about how many people die each year from the flu. It is also mentioned that the flu virus continually mutates and there will always be new strains that will be immune to vaccines.

Then you have all those rumors of 'Forced/Mandatory Vaccination'. I asked my wife the other day what she would do if our kids were 'required' to have the 'rumored' H1N1 inoculation. Her response, they (.GOV) can't do that......remember we have Zero in at the Helm so never say never Honey and keep your eyes wide open!

Thus far my opinion is, it is a load of horse dung they are working to dump on a the US Taxpayer. Kitty Kat Sebelius and WHO cry the Sky is Falling and Big Pharma gets a cash cow.

You know, never let a crisis go to waste.....even if it is concocted.

So

mugwump

08-31-2009, 09:25

Paslode, if you are hearing rumors of forced immunization then it's time to question your sources of information. There isn't enough vaccine to go around as it is.

It's possible that individual school boards will make immunization for H1N1 a mandatory requirement for attendance (just as they do for MMR, meningitis, etc.) but that's highly doubtful given that two separate doses of the vaccine (and possibly three, they are still testing) will be required to confer even limited immunity.

BTW, this means that even in the best case scenario, the vaccine won't confer protection until Thanksgiving.

Physicians diagnose and nurses heal. God bless them both. But the nature of their jobs, and the emphasis of Western medicine, makes then reactive instead of proactive. They may be right and this may be nothing. But from the sounds of things I'm guessing that their current judgments are not informed ones.

mugwump

08-31-2009, 09:52

Full article here: WHO warns of severe form of swine flu (http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090828/hl_nm/us_flu_pandemic).

The report below discusses ARDS in H1N1 patients. I have doubts about the 15% figure in the article because I doubt the denominator. If a doc sees 100 patients and 15 require hospitalization, he says 15%. But if another 900 patients get sick and stay home, it's 15 out of 1000, or 1.5%

The bottom line, though, is Southern hemisphere health systems are being overwhelmed even in the first wave (New Zealand, Argentina, etc.). The "expensive" ICU measures discussed include mechanical ventilation support and even extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO), where the blood is removed from the patient, oxygenated, and then returned. In other words, heroic measures because of complete collapse of lung function. Note that there are 51 hospitals in the world that can perform ECMO.

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Doctors are reporting a severe form of swine flu that goes straight to the lungs, causing severe illness in otherwise healthy young people and requiring expensive hospital treatment, the World Health Organization said on Friday.

Some countries are reporting that as many as 15 percent of patients infected with the new H1N1 pandemic virus need hospital care, further straining already overburdened healthcare systems, WHO said in an update on the pandemic.

"During the winter season in the southern hemisphere, several countries have viewed the need for intensive care as the greatest burden on health services," it said.

"Preparedness measures need to anticipate this increased demand on intensive care units, which could be overwhelmed by a sudden surge in the number of severe cases."

Earlier, WHO reported that H1N1 had reached epidemic levels in Japan, signaling an early start to what may be a long influenza season this year, and that it was also worsening in tropical regions.

"Perhaps most significantly, clinicians from around the world are reporting a very severe form of disease, also in young and otherwise healthy people, which is rarely seen during seasonal influenza infections," WHO said.

"In these patients, the virus directly infects the lung, causing severe respiratory failure. Saving these lives depends on highly specialized and demanding care in intensive care units, usually with long and costly stays."

armymom1228

08-31-2009, 10:13

Physicians diagnose and nurses heal. . But the nature of their jobs, and the emphasis of Western medicine, makes then reactive instead of proactive. They may be right and this may be nothing. But from the sounds of things I'm guessing that their current judgments are not informed ones.

I have to jump in her and disagree with that simplist view of what we nurses do.
Over the past 30 yrs. I have been around many, many MD's and nurses who do a lot more than heal. Teaching is a large part of our job. I have seen Docs take huge amounts of time to explain and teach a pt how to care for themselves. Nurses both teach and are proactive in our jobs. It is a part of our job.
Therefore to say we 'heal'...sorry I stopped laying on of hands yrs ago when I got poison ivy from a pt.. ;)

15% of patients is not a large number needing Hospitilzation from the Swine Flu. I think if you break it down to more logical and real components, one will find that the vast majority of them would have been hospitilized with any version of the flu.
The elderly, the very young, those with compromised (for whatever reason) immune systems, and so on. In any population with a virus of some sort, there will always be those who will get sicker for the above reasons. A homeless person with poor nutrition, an older person, a very young child, healthcare workers, HIV/bone marrow decreased/already sick...I look at more for a normal healthy individual population percentage then the above. To lump them all together is self serving for the rumour mongers and the media who make thier living and money off sensationalism. Not to mention, this whole deal is making drug companies major bucks. Sit back, take it into perspective, take a deep breath and do what you would do in a normal flu season and get on with life.

http://vsearch.nlm.nih.gov/vivisimo/cgi-bin/query-meta?v%3Aproject=medlineplus&query=swine+flu&x=44&y=11

The above is enough info to keep you reading, and out of trouble, for the rest of the day. YMMV.
AM

mugwump

08-31-2009, 14:10

15% of patients is not a large number needing Hospitilzation from the Swine Flu. I think if you break it down to more logical and real components, one will find that the vast majority of them would have been hospitilized with any version of the flu.

I didn't mean to offend and I don't think diagnosing and treating disease is simple. But I also think you've proved my point. Your examples all relate to an average year of seasonal flu, with typical hospitalization candidates. I am not talking about seasonal flu, I am talking about pandemic H1N1 influenza. See one of the web sites you cite for the differences: How Does Seasonal Flu Differ From Pandemic Flu? (http://www.pandemicflu.gov/season_or_pandemic.html)

The WHO report I cited says that forty percent of those hospitalized have no underlying conditions and are "young" (which in other reports -- see below -- is reported as "young adults"). This is certainly atypical of an average flu season.

Swine flu spreading at 'unbelievable' rate: WHO chief (http://www.smh.com.au/world/swine-flu-spreading-at-unbelievable-rate-who-chief-20090829-f3fz.html)

Swine flu spreads four times faster than other viruses and 40 per cent of the fatalities are young adults in good health, the world's top health official says. "This virus travels at an unbelievable, almost unheard of speed," World Health Organisation Director General Margaret Chan told France's Le Monde daily in an interview on Saturday. In six weeks it travels the same distance that other viruses take six months to cover," Chan said. "Sixty per cent of the deaths cover those who have underlying health problems," Chan said. "This means that 40 per cent of the fatalities concern young adults - in good health - who die of a viral fever in five to seven days. This is the most worrying fact," she said, adding that "up to 30 per cent of people in densely populated countries risked getting infected."

If 1/3 of the population gets H1N1, as the CDC predicts, that's 100 million flu cases. If 15 million of those end up in the hospital, it will certainly be catastrophic. [As I said, I think the 15% statistic is highly suspect, but even if it's off by an order of magnitude it's worrying.]

In the 2007-2008 flu season, which was the worst in the last 5 years, the influenza-associated hospitalization rate reported by the CDC for children aged 0-17 years was 1.53 per 10,000 with 83 deaths. For children aged 0-4 years and 5-17 years, the rate was 4.03 per 10,000 and 0.55 per 10,000, respectively. Imagine if those hospitalization rates go up to 1,500 per 10,000 -- those 83 deaths in the 0-17 age group could rise to 83,000 deaths (asuming equivalent CFRs which I grant is a "who knows?") [cite (http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/fluactivity.htm)]

I disagree with your position on "rumor mongering." I sometimes disagree with the CDC or WHO positions but back that up with facts, or at least historical precedents. To dismiss their research as rumor mongering is dangerous.

Two companies out of the 100 "large" pharmas make antivirals: Roche and Glaxo. Would you prefer the drugs weren't available? They make peanuts on those drugs compared with compounds for chronic conditions like hypertension and arthritis. For researchers, Roche is the best source for oseltamivir resistance information, even though it hurts sales to advertise that their drug is rapidly becoming ineffective. They have no obligation to do that but do it anyway.

I've been in more meetings where the financial liabilities of producing a vaccine are discussed than ones where the word "profit" is even mentioned. I know that one company is looking at significantly less than a billion in total profits. Before you say that's a lot, Merck had a judgment against them of $24 million in actual damages, plus $229 million in punitive damages for a single Vioxx case. They know that there will be cases of GBS associated with their vaccines; it's as inevitable as taxes. And while they don't trust gov't assurances of indemnity they are still working full speed to get this vaccine out the door.

I'm more than happy to be called out on anything I cite or on any opinion I voice. I don't know what's going to happen in the upcoming pandemic (not seasonal) flu season. But it is my strong opinion that "Sit back, take it into perspective, take a deep breath and do what you would do in a normal flu season and get on with life" is the wrong message from a health care professional.

Prepare for a moderate pandemic with the potential for short-term disruption of the supply chain. Have at least two weeks of food, sufficient OTC medication and fluid replacement for everyone in the house. (Assume that you may not want to be standing in line getting sneezed on at the local megamart.) Be able to disinfect surfaces, have alcohol based hand sanitizers, and educate yourself regarding home care.

Now you've done the barebones minimum recommended in the .gov web sites you cite. Now you can forget about it and go on with your life.

armymom1228

08-31-2009, 23:24

My bad, I forgot to mention this...

There is a difference you should know between BIRD FLU and SWINE FLU

For BIRD FLU you need tweetment

For SWINE FLU you need oinkment

Sent to me by a MD freind.. who works at the CDC. HE is not running around panicked and saying,
"the sky is falling, the sky if falling." As I have known Mac since the 5th grade. I only get worried when HE gets worried. When HE gets truly worried, he sends out a mass email to all his freinds.. no email so far.. just one about 'reasonable precauations"...

Mugwump, I have lived on this earth long enough to know that there will aways be some sort of 'pandemic' illnness or another. I take it all in stride.. when it is my time, it is my time. It was a QP support person who taught me that atttitude. I quit panicking everytime he deployed, and now enjoy his trips abroad as much as he does.. it is the same with illness. Take reasonable precautions and get on with my life.

mugwump

09-01-2009, 12:32

Mugwump, I have lived on this earth long enough to know that there will aways be some sort of 'pandemic' illnness or another. I take it all in stride.. when it is my time, it is my time. It was a QP support person who taught me that atttitude. I quit panicking everytime he deployed, and now enjoy his trips abroad as much as he does.. it is the same with illness. Take reasonable precautions and get on with my life.

Good attitude. Mine as well, personally. I have three kids who are in the "atypical demographic cohort", though, and about a hundred more that are under my "umbrella of concern" (ATTENTION: new corporate buzz-phrase, at least new to me). And I have to say that I'm scratching my head trying to come up with all the pandemics you've seen or heard about because the epidemiologists I work with generally have zero experience with a flu pandemic, or any pandemic for that matter.

Reasonable precautions in a pandemic year and reasonable precautions in a seasonal flu year are different -- and many people are still giving advise as if they are one and the same.

I've worked extensively on data analysis for the H5N1 vaccine, was out of the active loop with H1N1, but I am now back in that game as well. I'm not a major player by any means but many of the major players use my software. I'm in fairly regular contact with pharma researchers, WHO, CDC, and have occasional contact w labs on foreign soil. I carefully differentiate between personal opinion and Charter House statements, some of which are from a certain-to-be Nobel Laureate. Many times I am not at liberty to discuss what I hear, even on a Charter House basis, in which case I must wait until there is a MSM story, at which point I will post a citation.

I saw the data in a presentation weeks ago that underlies the "15% hospitalized" announcement from the WHO and it's real, although in my opinion it's badly skewed by a faulty denominator. It is mostly from northern Argentina. I hinted at it a couple of weeks ago because it was being reported in the blogs (which are perceived to be valuable sources of raw info and are watched carefully by the various orgs, BTW). I'm not panicking, hyperventilating, or saying the sky is falling. Just posting what I see as a relevant piece of the puzzle that grownups on this board (many of whom are experts at assessing intelligence data) can use to make their own assessments.

mugwump

09-01-2009, 13:20

Latest update and my assessment.

My pool bet is still a CFR of 0.1% (hey, we do ncaa basketball too), about what we see in a typical flu year. The attack rate, and therefore total deaths, will be about three times higher than normal. I see nothing to change the expectation that approx. 50% of the deaths will be in the young, healthy cohort.

Some groups have upped their planning CFR from 0.35% to 0.45% (total number infected * 0.0045 = number dead). Again, this is for planning purposes and is not a prediction. Call it the current worst-case scenario, based upon the facts on the ground. They never said why and I was in no position to ask but the recent uptick in the southern hemisphere death rate is the only reason for the the change that I can see. There's talk of significant ICU overload as well.

Again, none of the muckmucks I talk to would be surprised if this was significantly milder or significanlty worse than expected, and they each have a diffferent expectation that they keep close to their vest. It's all a crap shoot.

The most interesting use of the CFR data was by a guy modeling the "infodemic" potential of a pandemic. It was all very interesting, but it 'felt' flawed. A guy in WHO once told me that everything in a society holds together pretty well until you start driving by bodies in the street (when that's not typically the case).

More random notes: "they" know that up to 50% of the H1N1 infections present with no fever and GI symptoms but cannot change the diagnostic criteria or "back to work" recommendation (stay home until fever-free for 24 hours with no meds) -- change it to what?; there's more evidence that old farts (pre-1957) who were exposed to the last H1N1 pandemic have some immunity; HIV and immunocompromised are not dieing at a higher rate -- no one knows why (I wanted to go "Ooh! Ooh! Weak immune system = weak cytokine cascade" but flies on walls don't speak or they get swatted); as has been published, concerns remain about original antigenic sin and administering two similar flu vaccines -- seasonal and pandemic -- within a week or two of each other (Google original antigenic sin if you're interested); the next 'bugs and drugs' show (ISIRV) is in Miami :-( ; no one voiced concerns about vaccine safety but I wouldn't expect that from this group.

armymom1228

09-01-2009, 13:29

Mugwump.. since we seem to be at the end of the Southern Hemisphere flu season.. with thier spring approaching fast can you answer the following quesitons with numbers not statistics, that can and are always skewed to the support the analystis goals.

1. Exactly how man people in the entire southern hemisphere were diagnosed with the swine flu? Entire means ALL the countries not just Argentina.

2. How many of that group died with the swine flu as the only diagnosis that caused death.

3. How many diagnosed with swine flu in the southern hemisphere died of other underlying causes that the swine flu contributed to, or that simply had the swine flu and the listed caused of death was something elese?

4. Of the group diagnosed with the swine flu, how many fall into the "at risk" group based on age, and diagnosis of other 'at risk' medical conditions.

5. On a per million grouping... how man people per million in the entire southern hemisphere were diagnosed with swine flu and of that group how many died?

Please to note: I did not mention getting hospitalized. First it is a virus we can only treat the symptons and secondally.. There are quite a few docs out there that will stick a pt in the hospital if they bitch enough, therefore that is not an accurate methodology to use for data research.

There will always be something that is going to kill us.. ebola, bird flu, cancer, hangnails.. something.. and that was the point I was making, that you missed.

mugwump

09-01-2009, 14:36

Please to note: I did not mention getting hospitalized. First it is a virus we can only treat the symptons and secondally.. There are quite a few docs out there that will stick a pt in the hospital if they bitch enough, therefore that is not an accurate methodology to use for data research.

There will always be something that is going to kill us.. ebola, bird flu, cancer, hangnails.. something.. and that was the point I was making, that you missed.

I didn't miss anything. I get it...Don't worry, be happy. Go find your own data. If you have anything else, please take it offline.

Sacamuelas

09-01-2009, 15:22

Armymom-
Everyone who has been on this board for any length of time can decipher for themselves how to react to the updated information from MW. If this entire thread is read, it has been made crystal clear by several posters, including MW, that the information is not being posted to scare or shock people.

You pose some legitimate questions. However, it would appear from the other threads that you are educated enough to research and then discuss the answers to the questions you pose. Why not do that instead of sniper MW with lots of questions? I doubt anyone on this site has the time to do the research for the opposing side of the every debate.

Let's leave MW alone concerning his zest for this topic and his posting style...
Your points about prudent actions and attitudes were made and taken by all.

Back to topic....

mugwump

09-01-2009, 16:39

No one should be surprised to hear that I have an executive VP who is in charge of client relations. Besides being incredibly competant technically, he is also suave, handsome, and nice. He can simultaneously discuss, flatter, and redirect in a way only the classically educated Oxford Brit can. And chicks dig the accent.

That ain't me. Except the accent part...when I'm over there then chicks dig my accent. It's a Krypton thing; you only gain the power when you're away from home. As long as you don't say auto-MO-bile or IN-sur-ance. Then you're a hick...just sayin'.

mugwump

09-01-2009, 17:25

Here's a good, recent summary ArmyMom. I hope your ICU chief has seen it.

Helen Branswell is the top science reporter in the world, in my opinion. And note that the war stories in her article are from the mild first wave this last spring, which in the US was estimated to comprise 1 million cases (and no, I don't have figures for Canada and Uruguay :p). I hope the second wave is equally mild, but even so the conventional wisdom is for 30% to 50% of the population to contract the virus. Conventional wisdom could be wrong and I hope it is. But if it isn't, consider 100 to 150 million cases in five months and remember what Uncle Joe said: "Quantity has a quality all its own."

===========================

The Pulitzer prize winning Helen Branswell discusses the impact of the quantity of flu cases here : War against H1N1 likely to be fought in intensive care units (http://thechronicleherald.ca/Front/9013059.html)

Note the references to the hallmarks of pandemic flu, and what sets it apart from seasonal flu: ARDS, CNS involvement (agitation), multiple organ involvement, and the young median age being reported.

I've heard the following, in many different ways, from many different people working on this issue:

No one knows what this new flu virus has in store for humans. But health-care professionals who've dealt with the sickest pandemic flu patients say it makes sense to prepare for tough times.

``I always say that the one thing I don't want to do is in a year look back and say `I could have done this' or `I should have done that' kind of thing,'' Kumar says. ``I'd rather look back and say: `Man, I really over-reacted.'''

armymom1228

09-01-2009, 17:35

mugwump

09-01-2009, 23:08

I see your not a Doc or an RN or even an EMT..... Please do not slap down a experienced Civilian or Military Medical personals opinions when this thread is about a current Medical situation. Your Posting style? :confused

SF_BHT, you're right. I'm not medically qualified. But I've hired and fired scores of "medically qualified" people over the years and while titles are useful in some regulatory settings, I'm not in awe of any of them. I judge a person on the basis of their character, intelligence, level of education, and work ethic. And by education I mean all of it, not just the formal kind. From his posts I infer that NDD is one of the most educated people on this board and I also infer that he doesn't have a college degree. Big whoop.

And by the way, this is not a "legitimate question", it's an intellectually lazy and passive-aggressive attempt to score points in a thread where we'd avoided that for 3.5 years: "1. Exactly how man(sic) people in the entire southern hemisphere were diagnosed with the swine flu? Entire means ALL the countries not just Argentina." (Hold, on, just give me a few more minutes, Congo is a little tough because there's a war going on and they haven't done a census in...well, they've never done a census, have they?) The point had already been made about the hospitalization statistic: "I have doubts about the 15% figure in the article because I doubt the denominator. If a doc sees 100 patients and 15 require hospitalization, he says 15%. But if another 900 patients get sick and stay home, it's 15 out of 1000, or 1.5%"

At its best this thread has devolved into a repetitive cycle of "prepare for the worst, hope for the best." Time for me to let it RIP. Anyway, my only legitimate reason for being even peripherally involved with this board xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxx

Stay safe.

greenberetTFS

09-04-2009, 14:45

Just in case you didn't know...:confused:

Know the Difference Between Cold and Swine Flu Symptoms...;)

Symptom

Cold

Swine Flu

Fever

Fever is rare with a cold.

Fever is usually present with the flu in up to 80% of all flu cases. A temperature of 100°F or higher for 3 to 4 days is associated with the flu.

Coughing

A hacking, productive (mucus- producing) cough is often present with a cold.

A nonproductive (non-mucus producing) cough is usually present with the flu (sometimes referred to as dry cough).

Aches

Slight body aches and pains can be part of a cold.

Severe aches and pains are common with the flu.

Stuffy Nose

Stuffy nose is commonly present with a cold and typically resolves spontaneously within a week.

Stuffy nose is not commonly present with the flu.

Chills

Chills are uncommon with a cold.

60% of people who have the flu experience chills.

Tiredness

Tiredness is fairly mild with a cold.

Tiredness is moderate to severe with the flu.

Sneezing

Sneezing is commonly present with a cold.

Sneezing is not common with the flu.

Sudden Symptoms

Cold symptoms tend to develop over a few days.

The flu has a rapid onset within 3-6 hours. The flu hits hard and includes sudden symptoms like high fever, aches and pains.

Headache

A headache is fairly uncommon with a cold.

A headache is very common with the flu, present in 80% of flu cases.

Sore Throat

Sore throat is commonly present with a cold.

Sore throat is not commonly present with the flu..

Chest Discomfort

Chest discomfort is mild to moderate with a cold.

Chest discomfort is often severe with the flu........

Big Teddy :munchin

incarcerated

09-13-2009, 14:05

IIRC, earlier reports found no infected pigs at the pork farm in Veracruz, Mexico.
http://www.chicagotribune.com/health/chi-flu-virus_latsep13,0,1040634.story

2 flu strains in 1 pig led to new H1N1

Swine flus merged, jumped to humans
By Karen Kaplan
Tribune newspapers
September 13, 2009
The virus behind the global influenza outbreak may be known as swine flu, but it didn't just come from pigs. Wild birds and humans also played a role in its creation.

Scientists are still trying to unravel how it wound up infecting people and spreading rapidly around the world. To date, the pandemic has caused at least 3,205 deaths, as of Sept. 6, according to the World Health Organization.

As it resurges in the U.S. during flu season, health officials fear it could spread to half the population and are calling for urgent preparations, including the inoculation of children, pregnant women and other vulnerable groups when a vaccine becomes available in October.

Here's what researchers know about the virus so far:

H1N1's LINEAGE?

The new H1N1 strain is based primarily on an unusual virus that has been circulating widely in U.S. pigs since the 1990s. That "triple reassortant" flu is actually a combination of classic swine flu, a North American avian flu and a strain of human flu.

Somehow, a single pig became simultaneously infected with that virus and a pure swine flu strain found in pigs in Europe and Asia. The two strains swapped genetic material to produce the new H1N1 strain, which then began to infect humans.

HOW DID STRAINS MIX?

That remains a mystery, and scientists will probably never know. Relatively few pigs engage in intercontinental travel, and those that do are strictly quarantined.

But there are theories. One is that a person in Asia became infected with the Eurasian swine flu, then traveled to North America and passed it along to a pig here that already had the triple reassortant virus. That would explain why the outbreak began in Mexico and the United States.

H1N1s BEFORE?

Yes. The extremely deadly 1918 Spanish flu was an H1N1 strain, and one of the strains of the seasonal flu is also an H1N1. But not all H1s and N1s are the same.

The H1 and N1 in the seasonal flu are both from humans. But new H1N1 is more virulent because most people never encountered it before, so they have no pre-existing immunity.

DEADLIER?

It doesn't seem to be deadlier than the seasonal flu, but it's hard to say for sure. Public health officials keep track of how many people have died from H1N1, but without reliable figures on total infections they don't know for sure what proportion of cases result in death.

Even if H1N1 is no deadlier than the seasonal flu, it will cause more deaths because it likely will infect more people.

LIKE THE 1918 FLU?

Both viruses arose in late spring -- the tail end of the traditional flu season. And both appear to be most dangerous for healthy people in the prime of their lives instead of the very young and very old.

The 1918 flu is thought to have begun with a springtime wave that was followed by a more lethal wave in the fall. It ultimately killed about 50 million worldwide.

NOT AS BAD THIS TIME?

Studies in ferrets found that the new H1N1 strain didn't mix with the seasonal flu when animals were infected with multiple viruses. That suggests it's not likely to mutate in a way that could make it more dangerous than it is now.

karen.kaplan@latimes.com

Pete

09-20-2009, 03:52

frostfire

09-20-2009, 08:59

Swine flu 'could kill millions unless rich nations give £900m'UN report says

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/sep/20/swine-flu-costs-un-report

"The swine flu pandemic could kill millions and cause anarchy in the world's poorest nations unless £900m can be raised from rich countries to pay for vaccines and antiviral medicines, says a UN report leaked to the Observer....."

Of course this is a call for money to be donated to the UN - where it will find it's way into the pockets of the politians.

Just as from time to time I feel a surge of humanity and compassion, this time I'll be a cold blooded b**tard.
This is extremely non-PC, but can anyone say, population control?
FWIW, no, I'm not getting the vaccine either. If it's my time, it's my time.

I'm also tired of money flowing to politicans' pockets

InTheBlack

09-21-2009, 20:31

Fearless Leader already decided to give away ours:

President Announces Plan to Expand Fight Against Global H1N1 Pandemic - The White House Press - Sept 17

President Obama announced the United States will continue to act aggressively to stop the global spread of the pandemic 2009-H1N1 influenza virus and is prepared to make 10 percent of its H1N1 vaccine supply available to other countries through the World Health Organization (WHO).

<http://www.whitehouse.gov/the_press_office/President-Announces-Plan-to-Expand-Fight-Against-Global-H1N1-Pandemic/>http://www.whitehouse.gov/the_press_office/President-Announces-Plan-to-Expand-Fight-Against-Global-H1N1-Pandemic/

jasonglh

09-26-2009, 08:04

Defender968

09-26-2009, 10:29

Kentucky is still reporting only 1 death but I do not believe that is accurate. If a person presents in ARDS tests positive and is dead less than 6 hours from admission you would think that would count........

Likely death of 13 year old here has the local schools buzzing and people like me reevaluating the vaccine for their kids.

Local clnics no longer test for h1n1 just flu a&b. Most flu here is h1n1 so they are just assuming it is.

Found out after the fact my entire family was exposed to a child with it 2 nights ago. Will be a long few days to see what shakes out.

For the healthy adults I wouldn't worry too much, my wife is just getting over it (became symptomatic last Thursday), and I have managed thus far to not pick it up. She had a low grade fever for a couple of days, and felt pretty bad most of the week, spent lots of time in bed/napping, overall not as bad as a normal flu. I don't pretend to know how it will affect the elderly, children or immune compromised, but for normal healthy adults, it’s not really that big a deal.

Novice Snowflake

09-26-2009, 19:01

Army issues hand gel, cough orders in flu fight

By SUSANNE M. SCHAFER, Associated Press Writer Susanne M. Schafer, Associated Press Writer – Sat Sep 26, 12:09 pm ET

FORT JACKSON, S.C. – Soldiers in boot camp are getting something new this year besides rigorous basic training — Army-green bottles of hand sanitizer gel, part of a stepped-up effort by the military to ward off swine and seasonal flu.

Soldiers at the Army's largest training installation and at other boot camps are also getting orders barked by their drill sergeants to use alcohol wipes and cough into their sleeves.

It's all part of an effort that intensified when the new H1N1 swine flu spread this year to avoid repeating history. The 1918 global flu pandemic hit hard at big training camps like Fort Jackson, where hundreds of soldiers died and thousands became ill.

Army recruits enter basic training from around the nation and the world, so medical officials say they must drill hygiene basics into each and every soldier to keep them healthy amid the stresses and strains of combat training.

"We use this over and over, everyday," said Spec. Arielle Schiltz, 20, of Detroit, Mich., showing how the small vial of hand gel she was issued fits in a shoulder pocket. "You just rub it in. After the latrine, before eating, after eating. It could be 15 to 20 times a day."

Staff Sgt. Anthony Elmore, 37, in charge of Schiltz's unit, said such instruction can't be repeated enough for the estimated 50,000 soldiers who stream annually through Fort Jackson's training units.

"We have to work and talk, work and talk," said Elmore, of Greenwood. "We want to make sure that these soldiers know how to follow proper hygiene, so they won't get sick."

During the 1918 flu pandemic, Camp Jackson, as it was known at the time, had more than 60,000 soldiers in training, according to Dale Smith, the historian for the military's medical school known as the Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences in Bethesda, Md.

Exact numbers are hard to come by, but estimates are that about 25 percent of those at the installation got the flu, and of the afflicted about 18 to 20 percent died, Smith said.

Many who became ill recovered, "but it still killed a lot of people," Smith said.

Besides rolling up their sleeves to get mandatory vaccinations, the instruction doled out by the military could help anyone keep healthy in a crowded, stressed work place: Keep six feet away from those coughing or sneezing; cough into your sleeve; don't use other people's telephones or computer keyboards, wash your hands often and use hand sanitizer.

Military guidance also includes using larger meeting rooms, using workspace cubicles in offices instead of open places — and even putting bunkmates in head-to-toe configurations when beds are stacked. Stalls with alcohol wipes and gel, masks and instructive posters line the walls of barracks, rest rooms and training areas.

While some anti-flu steps were included in health training in the past, the training and the use of the hand sanitizers were stepped up last spring to battle both the regular flu and the H1N1 virus, said Nichole Riley, public affairs officer for Fort Jackson's Moncrief Army Community Hospital on Fort Jackson. The steps appear to be working, she said.

"We've seen a tremendous decrease in the number of flulike illnesses coming into our urgent care center," Riley said.

In April, the installation logged a high of 187 confirmed cases of the H1N1 swine flu virus, and now about only 30 cases are being dealt with, she said. Exact numbers are no longer being tallied.

"Using the hand sanitizers, the social distancing, making flu-prevention classes available. It seems to be working," Riley said.

Keeping illnesses at bay among military recruits is particularly challenging.

"Recruits have always been a population we've watched very closely, because historically they've always been at higher risk for respiratory disease," said Lt. Col. Steven Cersovsky, the director of epidemiology and disease surveillance for the Army Public Health Command in Aberdeen, Md.

With the flu season under way, extra attention must be paid to keeping healthy, Cersovsky said.

Soldiers are required to keep their barracks clean, wash or shower daily if training permits, and if water is not available, the small green hand gel containers are issued to each trainee, said Harvey Perritt, spokesman for the U.S. Army Training and Doctrine Command in Fort Monroe., Va.

The command oversees training and schools for 434,400 Army soldiers and 35,000 men and women from other services at 33 schools on 16 Army posts every year, said Perritt. Other basic training sites include Fort Leonard Wood in Missouri; Fort Sill in Oklahoma, Fort Benning, Georgia and Fort Knox in Kentucky.

The Pentagon said there were roughly 2,900 confirmed cases of the H1N1 flu among active duty forces during the outbreak last spring from the end of April until the services stopped counting at the end of July.

No deaths due to the H1N1 virus have been reported in the armed forces, said Department of Defense spokeswoman Air Force Lt. Col. Rene White.

Instructions like those being drilled into soldiers at Fort Jackson have been issued by the medical staffs of all the service branches.

John Conyor, a Department of the Army civilian employee at Fort Jackson in charge of safety programs, says several checkpoints keep those who might be ill from even entering basic training.

Military prospects get medical examinations before entering the military and again upon re-entry to ascertain if they are feverish or ill. If a soldier in training appears to have the flu, they are sent to a sick quarters, and isolated until they recover, Conyor said.

Both Smith and Conyor said great strides in treatment have been made since the 1918 outbreak, such as the use of antibiotics and respirators.

"We didn't have them in 1918. Most people didn't die of the flu but from a secondary attack of pneumonia," Conyor said. "We are on top of what's going on. ... We're ready for whatever happens."

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/us_army_flu_fighters

temsmedic

09-26-2009, 23:11

per the CDC: the sensitivity of the RIDT [rapid influenza diagnostic test] for detecting infection in patients with 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) was 47%. If your doc wants to ram a swab down your throat and nose to "check" for influenza. Tell him you have a test that is 3% more accurate than his swabs and a lot cheaper... then get a coin out of your pocket and flip it!

http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm5837a1.htm

InTheBlack

11-06-2009, 18:06

>
This is an official
CDC Health Advisory

Distributed via Health Alert Network
November 6, 2009, 13:51 EST (01:51 PM EST)
CDCHAN-00300-09-11-06-ADV-N
Key Issues for Clinicians Concerning Antiviral Treatments for 2009 H1N1 *

SNIP

Although antiviral medications are recommended for treatment of 2009 H1N1 in patients with risk factors for severe disease, some people without risk factors may also benefit from antivirals.

To date, 40% of children and 20% of adults hospitalized with complications of 2009 H1N1 did not have risk factors. Clinical judgment is always an essential part of treatment decisions.

When treatment of persons with suspected 2009 H1N1 influenza is indicated, it should be started empirically. If a decision is made to test for influenza, treatment should not be delayed while waiting for laboratory confirmation. The earlier antiviral treatment is given, the more effective it is for the patient. Also, rapid influenza tests often can give false negative results. If you suspect flu and feel antiviral treatment is warranted, treat even if the results of a rapid test are negative. Obtaining more accurate testing results can take more than one day, so treatment should not be delayed while waiting for these test results.

SNIP

For More Information
Updated Interim Recommendations for the Use of Antiviral Medications in the Treatment and Prevention of Influenza for the 2009-2010 Season: <http://www.cdc.gov/H1N1flu/recommendations.htm>http://www.cdc.gov/H1N1flu/recommendations.htm
Questions & Answers:
Antiviral Drugs, 2009-2010 Flu Season: <http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/antiviral.htm>http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/antiviral.htm
Influenza Diagnostic Testing: <http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/diagnostic_testing_clinicians_qa.htm>http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/diagnostic_testing_clinicians_qa.htm

incarcerated

11-09-2009, 02:54

Not influenza, but interesting all the same:
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2009/nov/06/rare-virus-poses-new-threat-to-troops/

EXCLUSIVE: Rare virus poses new threat to troops

Friday, November 6, 2009
By Sara A. Carter

KANDAHAR, Afghanistan | U.S. military officials sent a medical team to a remote outpost in southern Afghanistan this week to take blood samples from members of an Army unit after a soldier in the unit died from an Ebola-like virus.

Dr. Jim Radike, an expert in internal medicine and infectious diseases at the Role 3 Trauma Hospital at Kandahar Air Field, told The Washington Times that Sgt. Robert David Gordon, 22, from River Falls, Ala., died Sept. 16 from what turned out to be Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever after he was bitten by a tick. The virus is transmitted by infected blood and can be carried by ticks, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

Dr. Radike, who is with the Navy, said the medical team "will be taking blood samples and the results may take several weeks to get back." He called it "a precautionary measure."

Dr. Radike did not say how many individuals would be tested or why the military had waited until now to act. The unit involved is the 5th Stryker Brigade, 2nd Infantry division, A-Company 2-1 Infantry.

The news comes as the Pentagon disclosed that it has sent 150,000 doses of vaccine for the H1N1 swine flu virus to Qatar for distribution to U.S. troops in Iraq and Afghanistan - half of what U.S. Central Command has requested. More than a half dozen Afghans have died of the disease, which apparently was transmitted to the country by foreigners.

Pentagon press secretary Geoff Morrell told reporters Wednesday, "We're doing everything within our power to make sure our guys downrange get this [vaccine] as soon as possible."

Dr. Radke said the hemorrhagic fever is similar to Ebola "in that the end there is internal degeneration and external bleeding. From the Black Sea to upper Turkey, you'll see a dozen or more cases a year. Afghanistan falls right in the middle." ....

Sacamuelas

11-12-2009, 14:16

CDC: H1N1 Has Sickened 22 Million in 6 Months
Thursday, November 12, 2009

WASHINGTON — Government health officials say swine flu has sickened about 22 million Americans since April.

They say about 4,000 have died, including 540 children.

The startling new figures -- about four times higher than previous death estimates -- don't mean swine flu has suddenly gotten worse. Instead, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Thursday called them a long-awaited better attempt to understand the virus' true toll.

The CDC now believes that about 98,000 people have been hospitalized in the first six months of the nation's swine flu epidemic, including 36,000 children

Team Sergeant

11-12-2009, 17:26

CDC: H1N1 Has Sickened 22 Million in 6 MonthsThursday, November 12, 2009

That's nothing, the current Administration has sickened half the globe in about the same amount of time.

Knight

11-12-2009, 18:55

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ItK6jz9vcwE&feature=related

Has anyone heard about what is going on in the Ukraine? Numbers of infected and dead continue to increase rapidly. I've been trying to disprove this, but to no avail as of yet. Why is it not being covered in the U.S., and WTH is going on? This video is a bit old. Any info or opinions appreciated.:eek:

The Reaper

12-21-2010, 10:34

Hmm.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1340349/Swine-flu-200-fight-life-number-patients-intensive-care-doubles-week.html

TR

T-Rock

12-21-2010, 11:30

If it already hasn’t been posted, Flutrackers is an interesting discussion forum that follows outbreaks, looks like Egypt may be having issues as well…
> http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/index.php

nmap

12-21-2010, 14:28

Interesting.

Look at the trends, both locations and numbers: LINK (http://www.google.com/trends?q=swine+flu)

Notice that Ireland, England, and India top the list - but the U.S. is still number 6 on the list of frequency of searches. In terms of total numbers, there aren't many hits.

Going to news, LINK (http://news.google.com/news/more?pz=1&cf=all&cf=all&ncl=dVzxWr2PVM41RSMbWcsRyRtMRpU1M) we see another indication that it is covered strongly by the British press.

Amazing how our focus changes, isn't it?

Lanyard

12-22-2010, 07:24

Google trends isn't a very good indicator of global flu activity, it's more a reflection of media flu attention. There are significant discrepancies depending on the country and culture, let alone internet access. I think twitter and facebook info is going to be more accurate as it will be 1st or 2nd person evidence of influenza like illness (ILI).

http: //www .eurosurveillance.org/ViewArticle.aspx?ArticleId=19621

nmap

12-22-2010, 11:26

Nice paper, Lanyard.

This link - from the bibliography - seems useful: LINK (http://www.euroflu.org/cgi-files/bulletin_v2.cgi)

Team Sergeant

11-06-2011, 10:05

Some very strange people working at the CDC......... Many reports say she was very involved in the H1N1 scare.....:munchin

CDC official accused of child molestation and bestiality

ATLANTA | Tue Oct 11, 2011 3:13pm EDT

ATLANTA (Reuters) - An official at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention was in jail on Tuesday on charges of molesting a 6-year-old boy and a separate charge of bestiality, police said.

Kimberly Lindsey, 44, and her boyfriend, 42-year-old Thomas Westerman, turned themselves into police Sunday night, DeKalb County police said in a statement. Both were charged with two counts of child molestation. Lindsey was also charged with one count of bestiality, police said.

Lindsey is deputy director for the Laboratory Science Policy and Practice Program Office at the CDC. Westerman is a resource management specialist in the CDC's Office of Surveillance, Epidemiology, and Laboratory Services.

A medical professional told police in late August about allegations that Lindsey and Westerman had molested a 6-year-old boy, police said.

Police spokeswoman Pamela Kunz said the bestiality charge does not involve the child, but declined to disclose further details about the allegations.

Westerman was released on Monday on a $15,000 bond, but Lindsey remained in jail on Tuesday on a $20,000 bond, police said. They will have a court hearing on December 1.

CDC spokesman Tom Skinner declined to comment on the case other than to confirm that Lindsey and Westerman work at the CDC.

(Reporting by David Beasley; Editing by Colleen Jenkins and Cynthia Johnston)

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/11/us-crime-abuse-cdc-idUSTRE79A5YI20111011

Surf n Turf

12-09-2011, 17:19

I have been following Bio-warfare potential for some years, and this is the first public announcement that really concerns me
SnT

Alarm as Dutch lab mutates killer bird flu virus

WORLD health ministers say they are being vigilant after a Dutch laboratory developed a mutant version of the deadly bird flu virus that is for the first time contagious among humans.
A research team led by Ron Fouchier at Rotterdam's Erasmus Medical Centre said in September it had created a mutant version of the H5N1 bird flu virus that could for the first time be spread among mammals.
The H5N1 strain of bird flu is fatal in 60 per cent of human cases but only 350 people have so far died from the disease largely because it cannot, yet, be transmitted between humans.
The announcement led to fears the mutant virus could find its way into nature or that the publication of the research on how the virus was mutated could be used by terrorists.
Mr Fouchier said in a statement his team had discovered that transmission of the virus was possible between humans "and can be carried out more easily than we thought."

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/breaking-news/alarm-as-dutch-lab-mutates-killer-bird-flu-virus/story-fn3dxity-1226218721424

Penn

12-31-2011, 23:59

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/worldarticlelist/296589292.cms

Penn

02-18-2012, 05:35

mugwump

02-18-2012, 14:48

I am not getting the tin foil out, but what a great way for biosphere sustainability-depopulation.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/17/birdlfu-who-research-idUSL5E8DH44X20120217

http://www.wlfi.com/dpp/living_green_2/national_green/bird-flu-still-a-menace-in-asia-and-beyond

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/home/environment/developmental-issues/Crows-are-dying-in-Bihar-from-bird-flu/articleshow/11937747.cms

Farmers in China were feeding to their pigs chickens culled for H5N1. Brilliant.
Pigs are a fine source of H1N1 and a co-infection with H5N1 basically mimics Ron Fouchier's Erasmus protocol that's been recently suppressed from publication. Stupid is as stupid does.

mugwump

02-20-2012, 14:43

I am not getting the tin foil out, but what a great way for biosphere sustainability-depopulation.

Agree with you Penn.

Some may not be aware that there are those around the world, Professor of Biology at UT/Austin Eric R. Pianka comes to mind, who have argued that it's our duty to Gaia to radically depopulate the planet as rapidly as possible. They propose 6.5 gigadeaths as a good start. Pianka is a quite capable biologist and had a goodly little cadre of green-groupies the last I heard. He denies the "duty to Gaia" comment but he's been called on it by other UT profs. I tend to agree with his premise that we're destroying the environment if not his prescription for the cure.

The Erasmus protocol for cobbling up an easily-transmitted H5N1 virus while maintaining the 65% death rate was quite simple actually and well within the reach of post-docs at any major US university. All you need is a few egghead whack jobs and you have an 'Army of the Twelve Monkeys' scenario.

Pete

02-20-2012, 15:09

........, who have argued that it's our duty to Gaia to radically depopulate the planet as rapidly as possible. They propose 6.5 gigadeaths as a good start. ..........

And they think we are the crazy ones.

If they think that they should volunteer to go first.

scooter

02-20-2012, 16:44

And they think we are the crazy ones.

If they think that they should volunteer to go first.

Couldn't agree more... anyone who proposes radical soultions to overpopulation that have anything to do with sterilization, birth limits, or "other" measures should be part of a special trial run to test the validity of the idea.

mugwump

03-08-2012, 11:50

Worth keeping an eye on. It's since been confirmed they had Type A influenza but the variant/clade is still being determined. There are conflicting reports that a funeral home worker who handled the bodies subsequently died from the flu as well. Who knows...this could be nothing.

Edited to add: the chair-against-the-wall event in these things is illness/death in the health care workers who tended the victims and there is no indication of that here.

ORIGINAL PRESS RELEASE ISSUED March 5, 2012
Calvert County Health Department (CCHD) is aware of a cluster of severe respiratory illnesses in five (Lusby area), including four members of a Calvert County family, residing approximately a mile south of the power plant. All five were hospitalized over the last two weeks. Four of the five have died of their illnesses.

The cause of these illnesses has not been completely confirmed at this time, although much testing is underway. At this time, there is no information that indicates special preventive measures, like antibiotics, are needed for family or other close contacts of the patients; however CCHD will continue to work with the healthcare providers and others on this situation and will update Calvert County residents if new information important to their health becomes available.

In the meantime, we continue to recommend that people ill with influenza-like illnesses (fever and cough or sore throat) check in with their healthcare provider to be evaluated and see if they would benefit from antiviral or other medications.

FROM: CALVERT COUNTY HEALTH DEPARTMENT
DAVID L. ROGERS, MD MPH
HEALTH OFFICER

mugwump

03-08-2012, 12:10

Called a guy who should know. He said it's Type A subtype H3 but they have doubts it's the same H3N2 clade that has been going around this season. It's not unusual for the circulating flu virus to do an end-around the current flu vaccine. he's not particularly worried.

I saw press reports that another sister in the family is now hospitalized in fair condition (elderly mom got sick, 50ish kids all took care of her).

The deaths were apparently associated with hemorrhagic symptoms (cytokine storm?) and concurrent staph infection. The simple explanation is this family had some genetic vulnerability or co-morbidity that led to this.

The Reaper

03-08-2012, 18:51

Thanks, mugwump.

Always appreciate an inside perspective.

TR

Dusty

03-08-2012, 19:09

Thanks, mugwump.

Always appreciate an inside perspective.

TR

:D

It's empowering.

mugwump

04-05-2013, 08:12

Just a heads up. Google h7n9, you can use google translate to read the Chinese media reports directly. I'm not involved with this field anymore, so no inside gouge, but this appears to be heating up. Most recent reports indicate human-to-human transmission--ignore the "thankfully there's no sign of h2h transmission" reports, they're dated. Closing all of Shanghai's poultry markets indicates a high level of concern among the inscrutables. Airline stocks are taking a hit on speculation of potential quarantines. On the upside, social media are preventing media blackouts and the Chinese press seem to be doing a good job of reporting the facts. It may be time to review your "social distancing" plans.

mugwump

04-05-2013, 12:40

The sudden appearance over a wide geographic area is the reason for concern. You'll need to zoom out to see the cases in the southwest. https://maps.google.com/maps/ms?msa=0&msid=200073663810992252651.0004d96b6096833780da3&ie=UTF8&t=m&ll=32.287133,120.498047&spn=6.499253,10.656738&z=6&source=embed

Patriot007

04-05-2013, 15:49

So I had an interesting case in the ED the other day pertaining to this topic.

A healthy "normal" mid-20s female presented with fever, altered mental status, confusion, and hypotension.
Family had not seen her for a few days and she wasn't answering her phone so police and then medics broke down her door and brought her in.

Febrile to 40 C, tachy 130-150s, initial BP 70s systolic. Only history was upper respiratory/ cold like symptoms per family who hadn't seen but talked with her. She would look directly at you but not answer appropriately. First thoughts were Tox- anticholinerics, SSRIs, various common illicit drugs, dextromethorphan. Medics reportedly found a bottle of NyQuil near her so thought likely anticholinergic but couldn't rule out infectious so she got the whole 9 yards- chest xray, urine, blood cultures, considered toxic shock, performed lumbar puncture, tox screen, salycilate and acetaminophen levels. A CT scan showed a very small intraparenchymal temporal lobe hemorrhage. We were concerned for herpes encephalitis but CSF was normal (and final assay tests as well).

However, 5 L of normal saline later and everything completely negative she was still hypotensive into the 70s and required a central line, pressors and the ICU. In the ED we rarely discuss cases with infectious disease but since we had no explanation I consulted them and they were at a loss as well feeling our differential, workup, and exam was fairly comprehensive. A few hours later the Influenza Assay came back positive for Influenza A. She recovered after an ICU stay on pressors and the only thing positive was flu which ID agreed was the likely diagnosis.

While I am not an ID specialist I shared my thoughts with one of our experts and he agreed. Given the extremely high fever, pronounced tachycardia, altered mental status, and hypotension my only explanation is that she had what is described as "cytokine storm". Essentially the virus caused her immune system to become hyperactive causing more harm than good. This is what is believed to have made the Spanish Flu of 1918 so lethal. This is described in some cases of H1N1, and is why younger folks with great immune systems may actually be worse off (aside from the partial immunity of past strains). To those of you that study flu this is not news. I had read about it but seeing it first hand was quite different and really demonstrated how quickly we would become overwhelmed knowing how many resources it took to stabilize this one healthy 27 year old.

Such a strain only needs to present itself as we have shown that vaccines are only partially effective at best.

mugwump

04-05-2013, 19:56

Yeah thankfully this doesn't look to be producing the number of cases you'd see in a real breakout. Touch wood this trend will continue.

mugwump

04-05-2013, 20:06

Beef

04-06-2013, 10:24

I just read an article that said that public health was “The art and science of deciding who dies, when, and with what degree of misery.” The decision they have to make now is do they continue making the 2013-2014 seasonal flu vaccine or shift over to a crash program for h7n9. People will die whichever way they go. The h7n9 is already sequenced, cultured, and they know it reproduces effectively at normal human body temperature. Compared to how they reacted to h5n1 and h1n1 they're moving at the speed of light.

Compared to the h1n1 vaccine, it is light speed. I recall that the major pharm companies were considering getting out of the vaccine business around that time. Plus the CDC denials of the potential seriousness of h1n1. At least on the surface. They formulated worst case scenario plans for municipalities to deal with large numbers of casulties ala' 1918. To include body storage in refridge semi trailers. I was on our local disaster planning committee at the time.

I don't know if it's been mentioned in the previous 50-odd pages of posts here, but John M. Barry's book, "The Great Influenza" is an excellent source for those of us who do not have a medical background to get an understanding of how a flu epidemic works using the 1918 h1n1 outbreak as an example.

We are lucky to have you guys on this forum. All of your insight and information is greatly appreciated. Thanks!

Pete

04-07-2013, 17:26

Deadly new bird flu vindicates controversial research

http://news.yahoo.com/deadly-bird-flu-vindicates-controversial-research-142717817.html

"LONDON (Reuters) - Scientists in the Dutch city of Rotterdam know precisely what it takes for a bird flu to mutate into a potential human pandemic strain - because they've created just such mutant viruses in the laboratory.

So as they watch with some trepidation the emergence in China of a strain of bird flu previously unknown in humans, they also argue it vindicates their controversial decision to conduct these risky experiments despite fierce opposition............................."

More info.......

mugwump

04-12-2013, 18:14

http://www.forbes.com/sites/melaniehaiken/2013/04/12/new-bird-flu-danger-worse-than-believed-says-urgent-report/

Good summary of the current situation and new research on the virus. Scary.

mugwump

04-24-2013, 06:54

Beef

04-24-2013, 07:28

H7N9 has crossed borders...first case reported in Taiwan. The last WHO case fatality rate estimate was 60% (106 lab confirmed with 21 deaths in 35 cases with outcomes). There is no evidence of sustained human to human transmission. The Shanghai auto show is ongoing, Apr 20-29, and there will be thousands of Americans returning from Shanghai over the next week. Interesting times.

Thanks for monitoring this and for all your input. Influenza is in reality the greatest potential threat to this country and mankind. As John Barry said, "it's not if, but when?"

mugwump

04-24-2013, 12:45

Public answers to questions I've been asked. CFR is best calculated as deaths per case with outcome, with 'outcome' defined in the current context as 'having left the hospital'--either in a box or on the patient's own two feet. Using the total number of cases as the denominator skews the data towards less lethal (although still 20%, which would still be biblical). Many of the people currently ill are not expected to survive.

My threshold points would be 1) reports of three or more healthcare workers falling ill (indicates h2h transmission) and 2) a local case. On threshold 1 I'll top off preps with items having a short shelf life (mostly cooking oil, bourbon) and number 2 I'll gather in the kids and hunker down for a few days to wait and see what happens next.

Note that if I'd had the same criteria during the SARS outbreak, both thresholds would have been breached. And that was contained. Nobody knows what's going to happen this time, especially me.

mugwump

04-24-2013, 13:43

Well that didn't take long. From the WSJ:

"BEIJING—Taiwan reported the first case of a new form of avian flu found outside of China's mainland on Wednesday and said that three health-care workers who treated the patient had developed undiagnosed respiratory symptoms, raising concerns over the virus's potential for spreading by human-to-human contact..."

The Reaper

04-24-2013, 18:56

Trapper John

04-24-2013, 19:18

Well, birds can fly right?

Maybe even when they are infected....

TR

Sorry TR, migratory birds do not contract the H7N9 virus. At least so far anyway and not very likely to happen IMO. The likelihood that this virus will mutate and give rise to a variant with human-human transmission is very real. Probably already exists in the viral population just needs selective pressure to propagate. This could be a BIG problem. Jury is still out though. Other variables yet to be determined, e.g. virulence of the human-human variant.

The Reaper

04-24-2013, 19:36

Sorry TR, migratory birds do not contract the H7N9 virus. At least so far anyway and not very likely to happen IMO. The likelihood that this virus will mutate and give rise to a variant with human-human transmission is very real. Probably already exists in the viral population just needs selective pressure to propagate. This could be a BIG problem. Jury is still out though. Other variables yet to be determined, e.g. virulence of the human-human variant.

I was referring to the movement from China across the Straights to Taiwan.

I know seagulls range pretty widely, just offering that may be a possible source.

TR

mugwump

04-24-2013, 22:22

Several Taiwanese fishermen were arrested for smuggling Chinese poultry this past week. They're giving chickens away on the mainland and, until yesterday, the price was still holding up on the island. Poultry arbitrage. I doubt they've interdicted all of it. That said, there's no real evidence that poultry are the vector. More than half of the hospitalized had no contact with poultry. The Taiwan case looks to be from the "other" vector, which more and more are assuming is h2h. The quick test for H7 produces so many false negatives that no one really knows for sure what is going on (the Taiwanese case was negative twice before the more time-consuming, definitive, test showed him infected). Recent directives from the CDC to US hospitals are telling them to ignore the RT-PCR results (the quick test) and just presume that anyone with upper respiratory symptoms and Chinese travel history is infected until proven otherwise.

mugwump

04-24-2013, 22:54

From what I'm reading, the hope is, if the worst happens and this goes h2h the first wave will be weak as the virus continues to adapt to its new host. That's what happened in the 1918 pandemic: weak wave 1, horrific wave 2, moderate wave 3. That would give some breathing room for vaccine development. The bad news is H7 vaccines produce very weak immune response.

That's why the heebie jeebies: a totally naive human population with zero immunity, ridiculous lethality (although, fingers crossed, mild cases may be occurring, silently, to temper that), prospects for a vaccine are iffy, the diagnostic test is craptastic, public relations disasters with Swine Flu/H5N1/H1N1 make officials reluctant and folks skeptical, and vaccine makers (color me furious) were stiffed by govt's around the world leaving them sitting on tens-hundreds of millions of unbought H1N1 vaccine (google 'Indian vaccine dispute'). Perfect storm.

And yes, around here bourbon has a very short shelf-life. Keeps disappearing.

Trapper John

04-25-2013, 05:19

Pete

04-25-2013, 05:59

mugwump

04-25-2013, 08:30

Talk about fog of war. The Chinese, in a report released today, are saying poultry are the source of all infections and there is no h2h. This flies in the face of many other credible reports I've read. See this exceptional article from Laurie Garret (http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/04/23/the_big_one?page=0,2). It's a longer read but fascinating.

The absence of a genuine epidemic in birds -- less than 0.005 percent have tested positive for infection -- means this is no longer an avian flu, if it ever was. The host species for H7N9 has yet to be identified. Whatever animal harbors the virus, it must be an urban-adapted creature, and ubiquitous from China's nearly tropical south to its wintry north. And because of the presence of those two crucuial "mammalian" mutations, it must have an internal ecology permissive to mammal-infectious forms of flu -- which would seem to exclude birds, insects, amphibians -- all but mammals.

Read the article. Balanced, no hyperbole, terrifying.

Staring down that fork in the H7N9 road, Beijing's options are limited to waiting, watching and hoping that the path the new virus takes more closely resembles the route of H5N1 ("bird flu"), with the microbe circulating in birds for decades, occasionally causing terrible illness (though usually death) in isolated human victims, but never erupting into a full-fledged human epidemic. The other path -- what might more closely mirror the 2009 H1N1 "swine flu" pandemic -- is almost too terrible to think about.

Trapper John

04-25-2013, 09:08

Thanks mugwump! However I found the concluding two paragraphs the most interesting if not foreboding: People's Liberation Army Col. Dai Xu insisted via Weibo and on China's CCTV that the fearfulness felt by the Chinese in the face of H7N9 flu is part of an elaborate American conspiracy -- one first executed in the creation of SARS: "The national leadership should not pay too much attention to it," he wrote. "Or else, it'll be like in 2003 with SARS! At that time, America was fighting in Iraq and feared that China would take advantage of the opportunity to take other actions. This is why they used bio-psychological weapons against China. All of China fell into turmoil and that was exactly what the US wanted. Now, the US is using the same old trick. China should have learned its lesson and should calmly deal with the problem. Only a few will die, but that's not even a one-thousandth of those who die in car crashes in China."

Famous for his nationalistic comments, Xu reportedly gained 30,000 Weibo followers in the 24 hours following this comment. He also drew criticism, to which Xu responded that his detractors were working with "American devils," adding, "It is common knowledge that a group of people in China have been injected with mental toxin by the U.S. I will not retreat even half a step."

Just as the virus stands at the fork of a bifurcated road, so does the Chinese Communist Party. Though hardliners within the party may share Xu's extremist views, the leadership this week took a remarkable step down a different, enlightened path, sending H7N9 test kits and viral samples to Taiwan. If China hopes to avoid the shame it experienced after covering up the SARS epidemic a decade ago, the government and the party will take the high road -- that's the one that shares samples with Taiwan and timely information transparently with the entire world.

Aha! It's George Bush's fault yet again!

But seriously, this points out the seriousness of a pandemic and the impact that it will have, not just on human health. Conspiracy theorists abound everywhere and in a crisis their voices tend to gain "credibility". This will create a foreign policy crisis of enormous magnitude IMO.

mugwump

04-25-2013, 11:35

The Vietnamese ag service has discovered h7n9 in local poultry. My guess would be it'll be found throughout SE Asia.

Sigaba

04-25-2013, 12:26

Congress Prepares $100 Million Bipartisan Flu Tax

http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/congress-prepares-100-million-bipartisan-flu-tax_719108.html

"Congress is preparing to take action on a bipartisan proposal to raise taxes on flu vaccines. This is not a tax on the wealthy, but rather on a broad swath of Americans, or at least those who choose to be immunized against the flu............."

Oh, well.IMO, the underlying logic of the proposal is curious. It is like Starbucks printing coupons for free beverages to compensate customers who may potentially have issues with their experiences instead of addressing the underlying reasons why those issues occur in the first place.

Rather than using tax revenue to build a fund to compensate people who seek relief for being "injured by certain vaccines" (and, thereby raise overall public confidence in vaccinations), why not use existing funds to (a) raise public awareness of the issue and/or (b) conduct additional research IRT making vaccinations increasingly safe?As is the case with all government "trust funds," there is no cash set aside to pay out claims. According to the November 2012 report on the vaccine trust, the $3.5 billion balance is invested in "US Treasury Securities." In other words, financing a portion of the $16.5 trillion national debt.Oh, never mind <<LINK (http://www.treasurydirect.gov/govt/reports/tfmp/vaccomp/vaccomp.htm)>>.

mugwump

04-26-2013, 06:24

H7N9 case in Taiwan revealed by doctor's post that went 'viral'

The first case of H7N9 bird flu infection in Taiwan became known to the public because an internet user, suspected to be a doctor at National Taiwan University Hospital in Taipei, left a note on a social networking site alleging that a patient may have contracted the virus, a note which swiftly went "viral."

The country's Central Epidemic Command Center promptly summoned the national media to deny the report, only to admit at a press conference three hours later that the patient, a 53-year-old man who does business in eastern China's Jiangsu province, had been been confirmed as Taiwan's first imported case of the new bird flu strain.

An internet user going by the online handle "Oxytocin" claimed to have had a premonition about the news, saying, "I had a dream that Taiwan's biggest hospital already had a patient who had contracted H7N9, and that there would be a press conference about it that afternoon."

The first press conference held by the Central Epidemic Command Center at 2 pm on Wednesday denied rumors of a patient with H7N9, and urged the media not to believe what is said on the internet.

Another press conference at 5:30 pm held by the Centers for Disease Control however acknowledged the H7N9 patient National Taiwan University Hospital, saying the virus had been confirmed that afternoon and furthermore that people spreading false information would be subject to fines, in accordance with the Law on the Control of Communicable Diseases.

http://www.wantchinatimes.com/news-subclass-cnt.aspx?id=20130426000025&cid=1303

mugwump

04-29-2013, 09:23

mugwump

04-29-2013, 15:12

Way up in this thread I talked about speculation that statins, commonly used to lower cholesterol, might protect against acute respiratory distress syndrome, a major killer in these virulent yet A flu infections. My daughter is a PharD working at a big university hospital and they've been reviewing pandemic flu protocols and the issue was raised. Apparently there has been a big meta-study of statins in ARDS since I wrote those posts a couple years ago and the results are mixed with no standout benefit. They've found that blood levels can reach 20x therapeutic levels in seriously ill people and they have big concerns about toxicity, although the study didn't find any obvious evidence of that. So...the current recommendation is not to use statins. Just a FYI.

mugwump

04-29-2013, 15:28

Also, their flu bigwig--one of the top guys in the field--speculated on the reason this flu seems to be selectively hitting older males. He said they may have antibodies against a H7 flu that might have circulated silently in Chinese wet markets 40-60 years ago. Paradoxically, it makes them more susceptible to this h7n9 strain, not less. Apparently some pathogens react this way. It's the same mechanism that makes the second infection with dengue much more serious than the first infection. There are four dengue strains and infection with one primes the immune system for bad juju when you get a second infection with one of the other strains. Learn something new every day.

orion5

04-29-2013, 16:34

The Chinese released the results to date of testing for H7N9 environmental sources: 46 hits (pigeons and fowl) out of 68,060 samples. They sampled rats, pigs at nearly 200 slaughterhouses, every bird species they could get their hands on, pets, etc. It's a pretty impressive effort.

On the back of this research, Greenpeace and Sierra Club have filed for "endangered" status for the H7N9 virus and are suing the Chinese govt to re-open wet markets. Well, that part isn't true but it sure is a mystery where this flu is hiding out.

I've lately read that the test the Celestials are using is considered quite good. It's problem in returning false negatives in human infections is due to the flu lodging deep in the lungs where it's difficult to sample.

I feel very bad for any American officials/agencies having to make planning decisions based on Chinese "results".

In all my dealings with the mainland Chinese officials, there is only the matter of saving face, protecting their country's interests, and their own rice bowl. That means the "results" could be 46/68,000 or 5,000/68,000 or 50,000/60,000 hits. Yes, the effort will always be impressive, but who can verify how the results have been scrubbed and what's been omitted?

I hope there will continue to be information leaks by doctors, scientists, hospital workers, etc....some of it may be inaccurate, but I doubt any less accurate than the "official results".

Thanks for the updates, mugwump.

The Reaper

04-29-2013, 18:19

I feel very bad for any American officials/agencies having to make planning decisions based on Chinese "results".

In all my dealings with the mainland Chinese officials, there is only the matter of saving face, protecting their country's interests, and their own rice bowl. That means the "results" could be 46/68,000 or 5,000/68,000 or 50,000/60,000 hits. Yes, the effort will always be impressive, but who can verify how the results have been scrubbed and what's been omitted?

I hope there will continue to be information leaks by doctors, scientists, hospital workers, etc....some of it may be inaccurate, but I doubt any less accurate than the "official results".

Thanks for the updates, mugwump.

Exactly.

Do you trust the Chinese testing, and the results?

I do not expect them to say or do anything that is not in their own best interest.

TR

mugwump

04-29-2013, 23:01

I'm hoping that the vested interests of the Chinese and the rest of the world have converged, at least in this case. It's the new optimistic mugwump. The alternative is, as the great science journalist Laurie Garrett says, "...unthinkable." That PLA colonel who laid the flu at our door ("bioterror!") has been marginalized (albeit in commie fashion...deleting his supporters' posts in social media and leaving intact those who denounce him as a loon) and the new premier Li has gone on national TV at a flu research center gloved, gowned and masked, calling for open reporting and vigilence. I'm told that's a powerful message over there. Right now, from what I'm hearing, the commies are more open about what's going on than the Taiwanese. Supply chain collapse is at least as big a deal there as here. I guess we'll see.

mugwump

04-30-2013, 08:05

Yikes. A risk analysis from the Chinese has been released and they pull no punches. I'm told that the Chinese Science Journal is an official state organ. See section 4, where they cite low levels of poultry/pork biosecurity as a factor in the probable pandemic. A rare mea culpa. The authors presume that the reported H7N9 cases represent the tip of the iceberg (...the confirmed human cases and the confirmed bird infections were likely only a small portion of the reality, according to the iceberg phenomenon principle in epidemiology ) and the highest probability outcome of their risk analysis calls for an extremely severe pandemic with high CFR. Finally, they hold out hope for a lower-CFR pandemic or viral burnout as the virus makes its final mutations.

The H7N9 AIV will probably circulate in humans, birds and pigs for years. Moreover, with the driving force of natural selection, the virus will probably evolve into highly pathogenic AIV in birds, and into a deadly pandemic influenza virus in humans. Therefore, the H7N9 outbreak has been assumed severe, and it is likely to become very or extremely severe in the future, highlighting the emergent need of forceful scientific measures to eliminate any infected animal flocks. We also described two possible mild scenarios of the future evolution of the outbreak.

Epidemiological and Risk Analysis Assessment of H7N9 (http://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2Fs11434-013-5880-5.pdf)

Trapper John

04-30-2013, 09:01

Thanks Mugwump! :lifter

Trapper John

04-30-2013, 09:09

My guess, based upon the epidemiology: Antibody assisted viral entry accounts for the skew in the age distribution. As to the apparent gender specificity, not sure. May be a clue to the specific membrane receptor being targeted by the virus.

InTheBlack

04-30-2013, 12:24

If the Chinese REALLY think a pandemic is a high probability event then they should be buying up production of all the vaccine makers in the world & starting to specify the contents of their custom vaccine.

Any way to monitor for that?

Trapper John

04-30-2013, 12:30

mugwump

04-30-2013, 12:42

Looking at that article a little more carefully, a few things pop out: the authors propose elimination of wet markets, replacing them with modern poultry operations; the research was sponsored by the Ministry of Science and Technology, so this has been reviewed at the highest levels prior to release; there was collaboration with the US, with one author working in the US and translation of the paper performed here; and finally, the article has been made open source with no restriction on dissemination.

Reading between the lines, lots of oxen were gored in that paper. Combined with Premier Li's very well publicized visits to flu research centers, it looks to me like they're trying to shape a PR campaign along the lines of "we did everything humanly possible." I suspect that they're working under the assumption that this is going to break out.

Trapper John

04-30-2013, 12:57

I suspect that they're working under the assumption that this is going to break out.

Duh, Ya think? No doubt in my mind. Just a matter of time and the form that this virus takes. I agree with the 3 possible scenarios posed in the paper. In the worst case scenario, the geopolitical ramifications are staggering.

mugwump

04-30-2013, 13:00

The Chinese already have extensive vaccine production capacity. They've been roundly criticized in the past for producing massive quantities of "crude" H5N1 poultry vaccine to inoculate their flocks (damned if you do, damned if you don't...seems a reasonable strategy to me but that's above my pay grade). They don't have our tort problems and will shift that to h7n9 production for humans in a blink.

The problem is, it's extremely difficult to make a vaccine for type A h7 flu. Vaccines produce really poor immune response for some reason. They've been trying to make a good equine h7 vaccine for a decade--a h7 flu circulating in horses has been causing big problems for quite a while now.

Of course, the other problem is they're painting a moving train; this virus is mutating at a rate never before seen in influenza. And given the antibody assisted viral entry Trapper John mentioned, a "close but no cigar" vaccine might produce more infections, not fewer.

Interesting times.

Trapper John

04-30-2013, 13:13

And given the antibody assisted viral entry Trapper John mentioned, a "close but no cigar" vaccine might produce more infections, not fewer.

EXACTLY!!!!

InTheBlack

05-02-2013, 17:14

Chinese have combined H5N1 with 2009 H1N1 swine flu; published May 3 in Science:

http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2013/05/h5n1-h1n1-reassortment/

And mentions another paper published in March:

http://www.plosone.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0059889

"To assess the potential of H5N1 viruses to reassort with contemporary human influenza viruses (H1N1, H3N2 and pandemic H1N1)"

Wonder just how much of this is going on. Did the moratorium lead to some agreement where everyone doing this reveals it to a central clearinghouse?

Trapper John

05-02-2013, 18:00

InTheBlack

05-03-2013, 02:27

If the Chinese are really smart they will use it on North Korea and eliminate everybody's problem !

mugwump

05-03-2013, 04:14

RE: Chinese dufuses...

This was not simple work, but well within the capabilities of any major university virology department. At the rate the technology is advancing, it'll soon be at the junior college level.

Recently, the Chinese emailed the H7N9 genome to the CDC, who simply created the virus from scratch for research and vaccine preparation. Putting aside the potential stockpiles of weaponized smallpox...how long do we really think variola will remain extinct when the entire smallpox genome is in the public domain and cheap automated sequence assemblers are already a reality?

Cheap sequence assembly + eco-zealot = run-roh

The capability to very quickly identify pathogens and then produce, distribute and administer effective vaccines is of urgent national interest.

Senior scientists have criticised the “appalling irresponsibility” of researchers in China who have deliberately created new strains of influenza virus in a veterinary laboratory.

They warned there is a danger that the new viral strains created by mixing bird-flu virus with human influenza could escape from the laboratory to cause a global pandemic killing millions of people.

Lord May of Oxford, a former government chief scientist and past president of the Royal Society, denounced the study published today in the journal Science as doing nothing to further the understanding and prevention of flu pandemics.

“They claim they are doing this to help develop vaccines and such like. In fact the real reason is that they are driven by blind ambition with no common sense whatsoever,” Lord May told The Independent.

“The record of containment in labs like this is not reassuring. They are taking it upon themselves to create human-to-human transmission of very dangerous viruses. It’s appallingly irresponsible,” he said.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/appalling-irresponsibility-senior-scientists-attack-chinese-researchers-for-creating-new-strains-of-influenza-virus-in-veterinary-laboratory-8601658.html

mugwump

05-03-2013, 06:03

Team Sergeant

05-03-2013, 07:14

Transmission of bird flu to humans slowed after China restricted live poultry sales in cities with the most H7N9 infections, with no new cases in Shanghai since April 13, a week after the financial hub ordered markets to shut.

transmission of bird flu eases (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-02/bird-flu-eases-as-china-shuts-poultry-markets-chart-of-the-day.html)

Shut them all. Too dangerous to be left open.

There's a reason we kill and cool animals for sale to the public.....

As intelligent as the Chinese are you think they would understand the problems/risks with selling live animals for human consumption. Then again it occurs all over Asia, old habits are hard to break.

mugwump

05-03-2013, 10:57

What I don't understand is, if closing the wet markets stops further infections, why aren't we seeing lots of infections in the farmers and workers who raise the poultry? Are they missing mild infections in the countryside? Hiding them? Is it something else, like it's really the rats that live at the wet market? Maybe it's the killing/butchering that's the link? Blood? Why did Shanghai cases stop after closing the wet markets when 40% of the cases had no poultry contact?

Trapper John

05-03-2013, 11:02

mugwump

05-08-2013, 08:59

I know this stuff is the anti-happy thought of the day, but once started...

There is steadily growing speculation from Chinese social media and non-hyperbolic Western observers (like Laurie Garrett, who I trust) that the number of cases hasn't dropped off, just the reporting of them. The state propaganda organs are stomping hard on individuals who "spread rumors". There are lots of "I had a dream that the hospitals in Fujian are overflowing" tweets. On the flip side some of these reports have been contradicted by western observers on the ground, so who knows? Four more deaths were reported yesterday.

The question I asked in a prev post is being openly asked by some officials, ie "If the chicken and human h7n9 gene sequences are totally different and the human h7n9 sequences all look the same, how can this be coming from chickens?" There is growing speculation that there are many, many more mild cases than are being reported. Which is good, because it means the CFR is significantly lower but bad, because it indicates easier spread.

And finally, there's a disquieting new coronavirus, think SARS, that has popped up in the Middle East with cases in the UK and France from recent travel.

All that aside, there could ultimately be more damage from the measles cases flying through kids in the uk, oz, nz because parents there don't believe in vaccines.

MR2

05-08-2013, 09:07

And finally, there's a disquieting new coronavirus, think SARS, that has popped up in the Middle East with cases in the UK and France from recent travel.

France reports first case of new SARS-like virus

Penn

05-08-2013, 12:03

A disturbing and interesting experience was related in a conversation recently with a client, who had recently returned from China. In Peking and in other cities, they were conscious of not seeing so much as a bug, let alone a bird, our collective speculation let us to consider the possibility that the Chinese government was employing DDT to combat the virus.

PTI

05-08-2013, 15:47

Please note the following:

1. CONTEXT
Am currently in Asia for a super short work trip. 2 days total in Hong Kong, 2 days in Western China and finishing trip with a few days in Singapore. Skipped the Shanghai portion of the trip because I don't like taking unnecessary risks when can be avoided.

No medical background. Just a keen interest in situation given 2 young kids at home. Will likely self quarantine for a few days when I get back to the US just in case.

Have always brought hand sanitizers and wet wipes in the past (to wipe down tables and such). Definitely using the former more frequently + making conscious effort to NOT touch face unless hands are sanitized. Plus washing hands with soap very frequently.

2. OBSERVATIONS - HONG KONG
Nothing appeared out of the ordinary. Some folks were wearing face masks, but does not seem above normal based on numerous trips to HK in the past.

Folks seem to be going about their daily lives. No major front-page news reports in the local papers.

Will make conscious effort to observe and inquire if chicken is available/sold and whether locals are eating chicken in general when I get back to HK later today.

3. OBSERVATIONS - SHANGHAI (via 3 colleagues who were there)
A. Folks do not appear to be too worried
B. Chicken is NOT available in food outlets
- not that my colleagues would tempt fate in Shanghai of all places
- Chicken was/is sold at KFC (wonder where they get their chicken from??)
C. Friends I know in Shanghai are not concerned.
D. My son's Chicago daycare teacher from Shanghai with family in Shanghai are not concerned

For 3C and 3D, I am curious since I avoided Shanghai. Their reasoning (right or wrong, I am not going to comment) are as follow:
- Country is better prepared this time given experience with SARS
- More drastic actions have been taken with poultry pretty much banned/non existent

[B]4. OBSERVATIONS - CHONGQING (Western China)
A. Folks do not appear to be too worried
B. Chicken is available and sold
C. Locals are digging into chicken. Not all, but some are eating chicken without a care in the world
D. My American colleague was slightly stressed because he ate scrambled eggs yesterday.
- For some reason, I disassociate eggs with chicken as well.
- I asked if I will be in his will; he did NOT find that funny at all
E. My China citizen colleagues (working in Chicago) are eating eggs and chicken. Won't eat chicken in Shanghai, but appear ok with eating chicken in Chongqing. They feel I am making a mountain out of a mole hill. I sure as heck hope they are right.

Will be in mainland China and HK for another day. Let me know if anything of particular interest that I can be helpful with; am fluent in the local language

HTH. Regards.

The Reaper

05-10-2013, 20:33

Interesting article.

TR
________________________________________
May 9, 2013

The Next Pandemic: Not if, but When

By DAVID QUAMMEN

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/10/opinion/the-next-pandemic-is-closer-than-you-think.html?_r=0&pagewanted=print

BOZEMAN, Mont.

TERRIBLE new forms of infectious disease make headlines, but not at the start. Every pandemic begins small. Early indicators can be subtle and ambiguous. When the Next Big One arrives, spreading across oceans and continents like the sweep of nightfall, causing illness and fear, killing thousands or maybe millions of people, it will be signaled first by quiet, puzzling reports from faraway places — reports to which disease scientists and public health officials, but few of the rest of us, pay close attention. Such reports have been coming in recent months from two countries, China and Saudi Arabia.

You may have seen the news about H7N9, a new strain of avian flu claiming victims in Shanghai and other Chinese locales. Influenzas always draw notice, and always deserve it, because of their great potential to catch hold, spread fast, circle the world and kill lots of people. But even if you’ve been tracking that bird-flu story, you may not have noticed the little items about a “novel coronavirus” on the Arabian Peninsula.

This came into view last September, when the Saudi Ministry of Health announced that such a virus — new to science and medicine — had been detected in three patients, two of whom had already died. By the end of the year, a total of nine cases had been confirmed, with five fatalities. As of Thursday, there have been 18 deaths, 33 cases total, including one patient now hospitalized in France after a trip to the United Arab Emirates. Those numbers are tiny by the standards of global pandemics, but here’s one that’s huge: the case fatality rate is 55 percent. The thing seems to be almost as lethal as Ebola.

Coronaviruses are a genus of bugs that cause respiratory and gastrointestinal infections, sometimes mild and sometimes fierce, in humans, other mammals and birds. They became infamous by association in 2003 because the agent for severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS, is a coronavirus. That one emerged suddenly in southern China, passed from person to person and from Guangzhou to Hong Kong, then went swiftly onward by airplane to Toronto, Singapore and elsewhere. Eventually it sickened about 8,000 people, of whom nearly 10 percent died. If not for fast scientific work to identify the virus and rigorous public health measures to contain it, the total case count and death toll could have been much higher.

One authority at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, an expert on nasty viruses, told me that the SARS outbreak was the scariest such episode he’d ever seen. That cautionary experience is one reason this novel coronavirus in the Middle East has attracted such concern.

Another reason is that coronaviruses as a group are very changeable, very protean, because of their high rates of mutation and their proclivity for recombination: when the viruses replicate, their genetic material is continually being inaccurately copied — and when two virus strains infect a single host cell, it is often intermixed. Such rich genetic variation gives them what one expert has called an “intrinsic evolvability,” a capacity to adapt quickly to new circumstances within new hosts.

But hold on. I said that the SARS virus “emerged” in southern China, and that raises the question: emerged from where? Every new disease outbreak starts as a mystery, and among the first things to be solved is the question of source.

In most cases, the answer is wildlife. Sixty percent of our infectious diseases fall within this category, caused by viruses or other microbes known as zoonoses. A zoonosis is an animal infection transmissible to humans. Another bit of special lingo: reservoir host. That’s the animal species in which the zoonotic bug resides endemically, inconspicuously, over time. Some unsuspecting person comes in contact with an infected monkey, ape, rodent or wild goose — or maybe just with a domestic duck that has fed around the same pond as the wild goose — and a virus achieves transcendence, passing from one species of host into another. The disease experts call that event a spillover.

Researchers have established that the SARS virus emerged from a bat. The virus may have passed through an intermediate species — another animal, perhaps infected by cage-to-cage contact in one of the crowded live-animal markets of the region — before getting into a person. And while SARS hasn’t recurred, we can assume that the virus still abides in southern China within its reservoir hosts: one or more kinds of bat.

Bats, though wondrous and necessary animals, do seem to be disproportionately implicated as reservoir hosts of new zoonotic viruses: Marburg, Hendra, Nipah, Menangle and others. Bats gather in huge, sociable aggregations and have long life spans, circumstances that may be especially hospitable to viruses. And they fly. Traveling nightly to feed, shifting occasionally from one communal roost to another, they carry their infections widely and spread them to one another.

As for the novel coronavirus in Saudi Arabia, its reservoir host is still undiscovered. But you can be confident that scientific sleuths are on the case and that they will look closely at Arabian bats, including those that visit the productive date-palm groves at the oases of Al Ahsa, near the Persian Gulf.

What can we do? The first obligation is informed awareness. Early reports arrive from afar, seeming exotic and peripheral, but don’t be fooled. One emergent virus, sooner or later, will be the Next Big One. It may show up first in China, in Congo or Bangladesh, or maybe on the Arabian Peninsula; but it will globalize. Most people on earth nowadays live within 24 hours’ travel time of Saudi Arabia. And in October, when millions of people journey to Mecca for the hajj, the Muslim pilgrimage, the lines of connections among humans everywhere will be that much shorter.

We can’t detach ourselves from emerging pathogens either by distance or lack of interest. The planet is too small. We’re like the light heavyweight boxer Billy Conn, stepping into the ring with Joe Louis in 1946: we can run, but we can’t hide.

David Quammen, a contributing writer for National Geographic, is the author, most recently, of “Spillover: Animal Infections and the Next Human Pandemic.”

mugwump

05-11-2013, 10:54

Emergency H7N9 measures have been cancelled in Shanghai as no new infections have been reported in a couple of weeks. They have decided not to re-open the wet markets. One death was reported today, but it was in a patient who came down with the grippe weeks ago. The numbers of deaths in the rest of the country are tapering off and the edge-of-our-seats phase of this wave seems to be almost over.

Temperatures and humidity levels are rising quickly with Spring, which are not conducive to influenza transmission. The next test will be the start of the 2013-2104 season in the fall.

Yep Reaper, the new coronaviris MERS-CoV is worth watching. As with SARS, it seems to rip through healthcare workers. In a cluster of 13 presumed cases last year in Jordan, 10 infections were in doctors/nurses taking care of 2 admissions. So many hospital workers refused to come in to work during the SARS outbreak in Canada, Ottawa made it a felony for HCWs to stay home during a declared infectious disease emergency. Hefty fines and 1 year in the can for each day of hooky, I believe. Each SARS infection produced 4-6 cases, but the generation time was low, otherwise it could have been a rough couple of years.

If you read the Laurie Garrett article I recently posted above you'll see the epic efforts china had to make to stop SARS: quarantine roadblocks, temperature inspection stations with mandatory internment, etc. They even welded the doors shut on an apartment complex and let the folks inside rot. There's a lot of discussion inside the public health community whether a democracy could have stopped SARS. Of course, the Chinese were behind the eightball in the first place because they tried to hide the disease.

mark46th

05-11-2013, 11:46

Penn-
When DDT is used correctly, it is a safe, effective product. It can't be used for surface applications on bodies of water or ground applications near bodies of water. I have been in the pest control business for 20 years and have talked to many researchers about DDT. The number of lives that have been lost that could have been saved with DDT numbers in the millions...

The Reaper

05-11-2013, 13:51

Stobey

05-12-2013, 15:43

Trapper John

05-12-2013, 16:26

This is a question for mugwump or Trapper or anyone with a medical (esp. virological) background:

With any of these (particularly pulmonary) viruses that trigger an extreme cytokine response, could a viable vaccine be developed by obtaining antibodies from serum of those who had the disease, but whose bodies managed to develop an immunity to that particular virus and so survived? Might that not be the quickest way to develop a vaccine? (Just asking...)

That only works in Hollywood scripts. You only get a limited supply of Ab from a survivor (assuming they developed Abs and that the Abs were responsible for survival) that cannot be expanded to treat a whole population. Furthermore, some viruses (H7N9 may be one) use Ab assisted cell entry to infect. So vaccination could make the infection worse, not better.

Frankly, I have a problem with the whole strategy we use to go about developing medical countermeasures to viral and bacterial infections. By that I mean we are constantly trying to develop vaccines to the next virus or antibiotics that kill the bacterial pathogen. The problem is that we are constantly in a reactive mode trying to develop a new vaccine to the latest viral variant or, in the case of antibiotics, inducing the expression of resistance genes that have been in the bacterial genome for more than 30,000 years.

A whole new strategy needs to be implemented that enables us to get out in front of the problem and not be continually reacting after the fact. A game that we will ultimately lose IMO.

Stay tuned, a wholly new approach has been developed and is being promoted for human testing that is effective against viruses and bacteria, is useful pre-exposure and post-exposure, and induces long-term immunity for those patients that have been infected.

I will post more on this development when I can.;)

mugwump

05-22-2013, 23:47

I've seen three reports in the last week like the one from Alabama, below. The others were in NY and LA as I recall and are also weak on details and confirming diagnosis. I don't know if this cluster is typical and just being reported because of increased surveillance due to MERS or...? You'd think the CDC would be all over this if it was a coronavirus or flu cluster.

Seven people have been admitted to area hospitals, and two of them have died, in what health officials described Tuesday as a “cluster” of respiratory illnesses with flulike symptoms.

http://www.dothaneagle.com/news/article_c7cfba0a-c234-11e2-9bc6-0019bb30f31a.html

PSM

05-23-2013, 00:09

NY and LA

Is this New York state and Louisiana or New York City and Los Angeles?

Pat

mugwump

05-23-2013, 06:17

Sorry, New York State and Los Angeles. Both were anecdotal reports from hospital staff about ICU respiratory cases and both of those reports have gone nowhere . The Alabama story appears to have legs and be legit. The CDC is there now. No diagnosis has been reported that I can find.

Trapper John

05-23-2013, 07:38

For further information on this and other disquieting cases:

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidrap/content/influenza/avianflu/news/may2213china.html

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidrap/content/other/sars/news/may2213corona.html

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidrap/content/influenza/swineflu/news/may2213alabama.html

Sacamuelas

05-23-2013, 08:59

More patients under watch...
http://www.wlox.com/story/22313426/cdcs-search-for-cause-of-alabama-mystery-illness-cases-climb-to-10

now reports of confirmed H1N1...
http://www.oanow.com/news/state/article_2673a292-c33e-11e2-bfdc-001a4bcf6878.html

Flagg

05-23-2013, 14:31

Stay tuned, a wholly new approach has been developed and is being promoted for human testing that is effective against viruses and bacteria, is useful pre-exposure and post-exposure, and induces long-term immunity for those patients that have been infected.

I will post more on this development when I can.;)

Much appreciated Trapper John, I look forward to reading about it someday.

I have an acquaintance in the public health field down here who has also provided me with some valuable information.

With the fat pipeline of travelers between China and Australasia it is certainly a worry.

To be honest, I prefer reading about pandemic risk on forums like this with trusted sources(the needle) during the calm before the mass media hay storm.

Interesting(and short) story about how the 1918 influenza pandemic arrived in New Zealand:

http://www.library.mstn.govt.nz/history/HowdidtheinfluenzagettoNewZealand.html

History has largely blamed the NZ Prime Minister breaking poor quarantine procedures, but may have just been a convenient scapegoat.

mugwump

05-24-2013, 04:44

CDC says the Alabama Cluster is seasonal flu, common colds, and bacterial pneumonia. Nothing unusual other than young-ish folks dead from H1N1.

Sacamuelas

05-28-2013, 20:28

"(CNN) -- A new SARS-like virus recently found in humans is "a threat to the entire world," according to the director-general of the United Nations' World Health Organization."

http://www.cnn.com/2013/05/28/health/france-coronavirus-death/index.html?hpt=hp_t2

DJ Urbanovsky

05-29-2013, 09:17

That's very exciting. Can't wait to hear about it.

Stay tuned, a wholly new approach has been developed and is being promoted for human testing that is effective against viruses and bacteria, is useful pre-exposure and post-exposure, and induces long-term immunity for those patients that have been infected.

I will post more on this development when I can.;)

Trapper John

06-02-2013, 13:23

Here is a good piece by Laurie Garrett. IMO, this variant of the SARS virus is very threatening on several levels.

DJ, we are planning to test our drug against this one too. So far its been effective against bacteria (MRSA, E. coli, S. aureus/S. agalactiae mixed infection, S. enterica, and intracellular pathogens ( viruses: HSV, Epstein-Barr, HBV, Parvo and obligate intracellular bacteria C. pneumoniae).

The reason our drug is so broadly effective is because it is targeting host tolerance/resistance mechanisms and not the pathogen.

It is not acutely toxic at a dose that is 25,000x the therapeutic dose and the therapeutic dose is well tolerated in dogs (2 doses per week for 4 weeks).

If we show efficacy against HCoV-EMC (I think it will be based upon some new work that just came out and has not hit the press yet) then we are going to pull out all the stops to get this ready for use. HCoV-EMC (MERS-CoV) is very, very scary and there is no medical countermeasure available.

Trapper John

06-02-2013, 14:51

And how much money do they need to combat this possible threat to the world?

Sorry but I am getting tired of the virus of the week going to end the world. The biggest problem is WHEN a real threat comes along like in 1918 these people will not be taken serious because of all the false alarms for moneys sake.

IMHO, Okie, this is not a false alarm! This mother is the real deal based upon the cellular response to infection. If it has environmental stability like its cousin (2 weeks and wide thermal and pH stability) MERS-CoV should be taken very, very seriously on several levels.

Sdiver

07-01-2013, 23:19

Don't know about the validity of this story, but .....

The Middle East Plague Goes Global

A scary virus is sweeping Saudi Arabia. Six million religious pilgrims are about to descend on the country from across the world. The result could be disastrous.

When the Black Death exploded in Arabia in the 14th century, killing an estimated third of the population, it spread across the Islamic world via infected religious pilgrims. Today, the Middle East is threatened with a new plague, one eponymously if not ominously named the Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS-CoV, or MERS for short). This novel coronavirus was discovered in Jordan in March 2012, and as of June 26, there have been 77 laboratory-confirmed infections, 62 of which have been in Saudi Arabia; 34 of these Saudi patients have died.

Although the numbers -- so far -- are small, the disease is raising anxiety throughout the region. But officials in Saudi Arabia are particularly concerned.

<snip>

Link ..... http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/06/28/the_middle_east_plague_goes_global

Penn

07-05-2013, 07:09

Could MERS be a manufactured virus, Saudi Arabia seems a strange place for a virus as deadly as MERS to form, its such a dry arid place?

mark46th

07-05-2013, 08:13

I worked for a guy from Mali who had a Masters from Columbia. He was certain the CIA had made the AIDS virus to kill Africans...

Penn

07-05-2013, 09:11

Tx Mark, Sarcasm noted

Everything that I have read stated that the next deadly virus would likely be from wildlife, it would be zoonosis, an animal infection that transfers to humans. The paper link below is a good read for understanding the progression in H5N1 Virus, but my attention was drawn to the environmental factors of origin in Guangdong Province, as the “birthplace of the flu.” Via wikipedia- “Guangdong has a humid subtropical climate (Köppen Cfa inland, Cwa along the coast), though nearing a tropical climate in the far south. Winters are short, mild, and relatively dry, while summers are long, hot, and very wet.”

www.fordham.edu/images/academics/.../environmental.../essayluong.doc
Quan Luong
The H5N1 Avian Influenza Virus: Globalization, Climate Change, and Other Anthropogenic Factors in New Emergent Diseases
Introduction:
The avian flu is a current and significant issue involving the global environment as well as the health of millions of people around the world. In the past few months, the imminent threat of an avian flu pandemic had drawn increasing public attention. This is due to the rapid spread of the virus among birds and to humans as well. In order to better battle the virus, we must develop a deeper understanding of how the avian flu works, where is comes from and how it affects the global environment as well the health of animals and humans.
The threat of the H5N1 avian influenza virus has been speculated to begin within the Guangdong
Province deep within China; it has been known to be the “birthplace of the flu.”

mark46th

07-05-2013, 16:38

Flagg

07-05-2013, 19:49

Could MERS be a manufactured virus, Saudi Arabia seems a strange place for a virus as deadly as MERS to form, its such a dry arid place?

If it was manufactured, I think that whoever developed the virus would wait intill the Hajj to deliver it. Moslems from all over the world would be present, providing inter-continental vectors...

While I've never been to Saudi(although I've spent some time in UAE/Qatar) and I'm just a mere RMP student....the first thought that comes to mind for me when it comes to very hot/dry climates is could this be something along the lines of Legionellosis, Legionaires' Disease?

Something that has spawned out of a GCC air conditioning/cooling system "petri dish"?

It would be interesting to see a google map pindrop of the victims homes, workplaces, and patterns of life looking at HVAC systems as a possible growth and distribution system for the virus.

Just the thoughts of an interested amateur.

It's funny....I remember as a kid driving past the Philadelphia hotel where the first known outbreak occurred and my father pointing it out.

IIRC the outbreak occurred in the middle of Summer and most of the outbreaks since around the world have been HVAC related and the virus seems to like temps around 70F-120F.

Trapper John

07-07-2013, 07:30

WHO is convening an emergency meeting re: MERS-CoV next week.

http://www.theglobaldispatch.com/who-to-convene-emergency-committee-on-mers-next-week-54304/

IMO, this is very, very serious. Too easy to be spread either intentionally or naturally and there are no adequate medical countermeasures. FYI, this is a variant of the cold virus. Ever try to "cure" a cold? 50%-60% mortality rate based on a limited number of cases with MERS-CoV.

Most disturbing to me is that if it is like it's cousin SARS-CoV, then it will still be viable outside of its host for up to 2 weeks in a moist environment. MERS-CoV is easily cultured from bodily fluids of infected patients and expanded. I know of at least 2 University labs that maintain live cultures for research an I am sure there are many more government and university labs worldwide doing the same. What level of BioSecurity exists and how effective is it?

Here is the nightmare scenario IMO: MERS-CoV (10xE6 PFU) packaged in nasal spray bottles, eye drop bottles is carried by Jihadists onto college campuses during finals week this winter. This is the height of the cold-flu season. Jihadis infect themselves, offer adulterated Nasonex to their friends with cold symptoms. Kids return home, infected, and infect their families. Infected patients fill doctor's offices and emergency rooms across the country and infect other patients. Primary care professionals initially think these are cold/flu cases amongst all the other cold/flu patients they are seeing. By the time we know this is MERS-CoV it is too late. Moreover, their is no medical countermeasure.

So you say develop a vaccine and mass inoculate? I am skeptical as to the efficacy of that strategy and it may make infection worse - antibody assisted viral entry. From what I am reading this is a very real possibility with MERS-CoV.

GratefulCitizen

07-07-2013, 09:59

Wiseman

07-07-2013, 10:25

Surf n Turf

07-07-2013, 12:28

Trapper John,

Self-infection would seem to be the most logical route.

With the Saudi’s enjoying on-line visa applications and expedited services, I would expect lots of “visitors”

SnT

Trapper John

07-08-2013, 06:08

Trapper John,

Self-infection would seem to be the most logical route.

With the Saudi’s enjoying on-line visa applications and expedited services, I would expect lots of “visitors”

SnT

Yep. Impossible to detect. The only protection is a medical countermeasure. IMO, this is not a question of IF - it is a question of WHEN.

The Reaper

07-08-2013, 16:22

Saudi origin should remove swine from the equation as well.

TR

98G

08-05-2013, 15:21

Russia Developing Infection-'Neutralization' System

The Russian Defense Ministry has ordered the development of a computerized biological threat-neutralization system that by the end of 2014 would be able to analyze bacterial and viral DNA in approximately an hour, devise a vaccine and plan for its manufacture, Izvestia reported.

The backbone of the five-component system will be named Berkut-1 and is to analyze and forecast how a given biological threat will occur, as well as provide options for combating the threat. The Berkut-1 component will rely on a database of lethal viruses and bacteria to provide medical suggestions and course-of-treatment options.

Other components will be responsible for analysis of the infectious agent's nucleic acids, determining mechanisms to combat the pathogen, physical creation of vaccine tablets, and the maintenance and control of vaccine production.

The state-of-the-art system will be developed for an estimated cost of 284 million rubles, or approximately $8.6 million, according to the news service. It is to be built in the city of Kirov nearly 600 miles northeast of Moscow, where a Defense Ministry biological institute is located.

Meanwhile, top Russian public health official Gennady Onishchenko said last week that he thinks there is a relationship between the spread of African swine fever in Russia and a U.S. Navy biological laboratory that is based on Georgian territory, Interfax reported. Onishchenko said that Russian specialists who visited the research facility saw machinery capable of mass-producing pathogenic agents.

Onishchenko's claims that biological-arms activities are occurring at the lab have been rebuffed by an American diplomat.

Surf n Turf

11-27-2013, 04:45

The higher end of the estimate was no way near this "low-end" number.
SnT

H1N1 influenza virus killed 10 times more than estimated in 2009
The 2009 H1N1 "swine flu" epidemic killed up to 203,000 people across the globe -- a death toll 10 times greater than initially estimated by the World Health Organization, researchers say.

In a study published Tuesday in the journal Plos Medicine, epidemiologists used data on respiratory deaths in 20 nations to calculate a global mortality rate for the pandemic.

Prior to this research, the WHO counted just 18,631 lab-confirmed cases of H1N1, a viral infection of the airways.

"This study confirms that the H1N1 virus killed many more people globally than originally believed," read a statement from Lone Simonsen, a research professor in the Department of Global Health at George Washington University.

"We also found that the mortality burden of this pandemic fell most heavily on younger people and those living in certain parts of the Americas," Simonsen said.

The 2009 pandemic was far from the worst such outbreak. In 1918, the Spanish influenza pandemic killed 50 million people, roughly 2% of the world population at that time.

Nevertheless, researchers said it was important for healthcare providers to understand the full impact of recent flu pandemics.

The relatively modest number of deaths estimated by the WHO prompted some to question whether the overall response to the 2009 outbreak was excessive. However, Simonsen and her colleagues argued that lab-confirmed influenza deaths would underestimate the broad reach of the illness.

"Many influenza-related deaths result from secondary bacterial infections or from exacerbation of preexisting chronic conditions, and are not recorded as related to influenza infection," authors wrote.

Among the findings that surprised researchers was the age and geographic distribution of deaths. Most of the people who died -- 62% to 85% -- were younger than age 65. Traditionally, seasonal influenza hits seniors the hardest.

[Updated 3:37 p.m. PST Nov. 26: The range in percentages for deaths under the age of 65 is due to a range of rates in the 20 sampled countries, as well as different statistical methods used to calculate global deaths.]

Researchers also calculated that flu-related deaths were 20 times greater in Central and South America than in European countries. That finding stood in sharp contrast to an earlier U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimate that the heaviest mortality rates occurred in Africa and Southeast Asia, and that death rates in the Americas were lower.

The research was funded by the WHO and relied on viral illness and mortality data from 20 nations from 2005 to 2009. The sampled nations represented 35% of the world's population, and researchers then used statistical methods to calculate mortality rates for all nations.

The authors noted that their conclusions were limited by a lack of data from poor nations, and other factors.

"The true total mortality burden is likely to be even higher because deaths that occurred late in the winter of 2009-2010 and in later pandemic waves were missed in this analysis, and only pandemic influenza deaths that were recorded as respiratory deaths were included," authors wrote.

Researchers said that if deaths due to cardiovascular disease and other causes were included, the death toll might be as high as 400,000.

http://www.latimes.com/science/sciencenow/la-sci-sn-h1n1-influenza-virus-killed-10-times-more-than-estimated-in-2009-20131126,0,4541367.story#ixzz2lqD1qPJM

InTheBlack

11-28-2013, 03:06

Any current news on the MERS-CoV situation?

Went for my flu shot and found out my insurance does not cover the 4 strain vaccine. I thought ALL the vaccines this year were 4 strain?

Why should someone get the 4 strain instead of the Trivalent this year? Pretty expensive.

Pete

12-03-2013, 06:08

Hong Kong confirms first case of H7N9 bird flu

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-25181387

"Hong Kong has confirmed its first case of the new strain of the H7N9 bird flu in a domestic worker from Indonesia.

The worker, 36, recently travelled to Shenzhen in the mainland and came into contact with live poultry. She is in critical condition, officials say.

H7N9 has infected more than 100 people since it emerged earlier this year.

The case in Hong Kong is a sign that the virus may be spreading beyond mainland China, where most infections have been reported, and Taiwan. ....."

mugwump

04-10-2014, 10:35

Tamiflu is a waste of money (http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/antiviral-drug-stockpile-a-waste-of-money-says-study-20140410-zqt3i.html)

Good to know...too bad it isn't more effective.

Trapper John

04-10-2014, 11:02

Interesting! I haven't read the original report, but will. Timely, post too as I am participating as a debater at a symposium on Pandemic Preparedness tomorrow and Saturday. My POV is that, at least as it pertains to medical countermeasures, we are approaching the problem the wrong way. Stockpiling Tamiflu is an excellent example of this. Thanks for the post and I will post a briefing from the symposium next week. That's presuming of course that I don't get banned before it's over. :D

Peregrino

04-10-2014, 11:17

HERESY!!!!! You guys be careful, Big Pharma is probably already sending hit teams to take out anyone spreading these "baseless" rumors. Remember Copernicus and Galileo! (Well - they didn't get burned at the stake, but it did cost them serious ass-pain and it took centuries for the Catholic Church to "rehabilitate" them.)

Richard

04-10-2014, 11:18

"Captain Trips"? Ever read "The Stand", TJ? ;)

Richard

Peregrino

04-10-2014, 11:22

"Captain Trips"? Ever read "The Stand", TJ? ;)

Richard

Nice!

Trapper John

04-10-2014, 13:08

Nice!

Richard and Peregrino thank you for your concern, but honestly I say bring it! Been in the weeds for 10+ years gathering intel, snoopin & poopin, building assets (including former SF that are very well experienced and are properly placed, one or two that still operate in the shadows, and a non-QP member here), doing the heavy lifting, and am now preparing to engage. :lifter

Well, I can say with confidence that preparedness is a sham. The Tamiflu report is a case in point. I have pulled the two original clinical trial reports and have attached an editorial summary of these written by the editors of BMJ - a well respected peer reviewed medical journal. I summarize the key points that I found most disturbing and that validate my position:

(1) This class of drug (neuramidase inhibitors) have only a slight benefit in the relief of flu symptoms when compared to a placebo.

(2) When compared to other relief drugs (e.g. advil cold and flu) there is no difference.

(3) The course of disease is unaltered

(4) Patients are still infective

(5) No benefit in the prevention of complications such as pneumonia.

(6) No change in the morbidity/mortality as a result of treatment.

(7) A full 60% of the clinical data was withheld from the FDA during the approval process.

That governments are spending Billions of $s thinking that we are protected is a very, very dangerous false hope.

One of the 3 presenters at the symposium whom I will debate is the Senior Science Advisor to the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response (HHS). I have read his position paper. Most of his points will address the issues of surveillance and containment. These are excellent. The other two presenters are two academics that IMO (reading their position papers) are just fluff. Nowhere, is the issue of medical countermeasures addressed. That is our Achille's heal and the Tamiflu case study makes that point very nicely.

Moreover, the entire symposium presupposes 'natural' pandemic occurrence. A far more likely scenario is intentional pandemic occurrence. Such an event will not only circumvent surveillance measures, it will neutralize containment measures. This leaves us dependent upon medical countermeasures and, as I pointed out, they are non-existent.

My "Spidey-sense" is telling me that this symposium is a road-show to convince gullible academics that the government is doing the right things and that although there are risks, the gubment has things under control. Hah....that's BS!

Could be a couple of interesting days. :D

Peregrino

04-10-2014, 13:24

Sounds like you're going trolling for big fish. IF you feel you have everything "locked and cocked" may I suggest some light entertainment for your down time? Check out: http://www.amazon.com/Under-Graveyard-Sky-John-Ringo/dp/1451639198. I found it entertaining (in fairness, I know John and would read at least the first book of any series he writes) and it dovetails nicely with your "intentional" concerns. Otherwise - have fun at the convention (after all - isn't that what conventions are for? :D).

Trapper John

04-10-2014, 13:44

Peregrino, I wouldn't say that everything is "locked and cocked" just yet. Still prepping the battlefield and this is just a little "recon by fire" op. Just love throwing a grenade or two inside the enemy perimeter to see what happens. :D I'll know the effect in a few weeks from the assets inside the wire.

Ringo's book looks like fun. I hope we can prevent that scenario. Still time, but we'll see. :munchin

Trapper John

04-13-2014, 12:06

Just got back from 2 days of intensive discussion/debate at Ursinis College. The conference was sponsored and run by the Institute on Science for Global Policy (ISGP) entitled "Emerging and Persistent Infectious Disease: Focus on Pandemic Preparedness" and was conducted in accordance with Chatham House Rules. The conference was moderated by George H. Atkinson, Executive Director of ISGP and former Science and Technology Adviser to Secretaries Condoleeza Rice and Colin Powell.

Students in the Ursinis College program at the Center for Science and the Common Good. Also debating were the Physician General of the Commonwealth of PA (Carrie DeLone, MD), Jane Weida, MD (President of the Board of Trustees, American Academy of Family Physicians), and Joseph H. Melrose, Jr (Retired Ambassador of the United States).

The presenters were George Korch (Senior Science Advisor to the Asst. Secretary for Preparedness HHS), Stephen Morse (Global Co-Director, USAID Predict Project and Professor of Epidemiology at Columbia University), and K. Viswanath (Professor, Harvard University School of Public Health).

At the conclusion of the debates (day 1) we broke into caucus groups (day 2) to develop consensus statements and actionable items. These were discussed and debated to develop combined consensus statements and action items during the afternoon of the 2nd day. These will be published along with the conference proceedings.

One of the most surprising and encouraging outcomes to me was how well prepared the students were and how thoughtful and pertinent their questions were. The students had obviously been trained in the development of critical thinking skills. This was a pretty much universal opinion of those of us outside the academic circles or from other institutions. This singular point gives this FOG hope for the future. It was also surprising to me how conservative/libertarian leaning these students were on issues. Could that be a direct consequence of sharpened critical thinking skills? :D This was not at all what I was expecting from a small liberal arts college. I did have the opportunity to point that out to the President of Ursinis College and thank him and his faculty on a job well done.

Right out of the gate I began to lob grenades: (1) Given that efficacy of flu vaccines are nominally 60% - 70% effective and that public compliance with flu vaccine programs is at best 20%, aren't we fooling ourselves by thinking that vaccine development programs will provide any significant protection from a Pandemic? (2) Given that we have NEVER been able to predict an emergent flu strain that results in Pandemic, why do we think that trying to develop vaccines that are either not effective or that people won't take is a viable strategy for Pandemic preparedness? (3) Given that flu vaccine development programs are very costly to industry and have the lowest margins of profitability among the products in market or in the PhRMA pipeline, what incentive is there for PhRMA to develop vaccines that are ineffective and that people wont take? (4) Are we asking PhRMA to bank on the hope that a market may emerge at some point in the future for which we have historically not been able to predict in the first place?
(5) Does this not put the governments of world in a position of needing to spend Billions of $s stockpiling vaccines and replacing these stockpiles every few years in the false hope that they will provide protection in the event of a Pandemic?

I went on to challenge the conventional planning to point out that after $80 B in expenditures we essentially have (1) no vaccines and (2) no effective medical countermeasures to the identified threats. Could it be that we are just simply looking at the problem and therefore the solutions in the wrong way? Why would we continue to do the same thing, albeit faster and more efficiently, and expect a different result? And another thing, what is wrong with a system that stockpiles $1.3 B worth of palliative drug (Tamiflu) that is no more effective than Advil Cold and Flu?

What makes us think that the next Pandemic will occur by a natural means of transmission? If an intentional release of an agent that caused a pandemic were to occur (I believe that it will) this would circumvent all surveillance measures and would make all containment measures ineffective and the only response would be therapeutic medical countermeasures for which we have none. In short the Emperor has no clothes!

Well, the second surprise was that I met with no resistance or push-back on these issues although there was some obfuscating and excuse pandering - but I quickly called that BS. What did happen is that I found allies in part because the presenters and moderator had some common ground in the human assets I have acquired during the years of the preparation phase and with whom we had mutual respect. So it all boiled down to relationships in common.

Follow on action steps will be to (1) at the request of the Science Advisor for Preparedness, bring this message inside HHS and (2) have direct input to the editing the final consensus statement and action items that will appear in the published proceedings. When these are available I will post them here.

All in all a good 2 days and time well spent. Much follow up work to do.:lifter

MR2

04-13-2014, 13:38

Common sense ain't so.

Trapper John

04-13-2014, 13:53

Common sense ain't so.

No truer words spoken!

Flagg

04-13-2014, 14:38

A few months back I finished reading David Kilcullen's new book "Out of the Mountains".

Actually a pretty good read, but nothing new to most on this forum.

It covers four major megatrends and their implications for local/regional/global security:

population growth
urbanization
littoralization
connectivity

But upon reflection, there's an almost complete lack of inclusion regarding the public health security facet in the book(beyond a rather scary mention of the 1 toilet per 600+ people in Mumbai).

When you factor in the "self governed spaces" aspect as termed by a QP over at Small Wars Journal visualized in megaslum favela form along with the specific targeting of public health workers in places like Pakistan(polio immunization NGO workers) the public health security threat seems both enormous and inevitable.

I'm surprised the fast growing 3rd world poor public health petri dish connected to the 1st world aspect wasn't worth the coverage.

TFA303

04-14-2014, 14:04

Just got back from 2 days of intensive discussion/debate at Ursinis College.

Follow on action steps will be to (1) at the request of the Science Advisor for Preparedness, bring this message inside HHS and (2) have direct input to the editing the final consensus statement and action items that will appear in the published proceedings. When these are available I will post them here.

All in all a good 2 days and time well spent. Much follow up work to do.:lifter

Thanks very much for the insight. Of all the CBRNE horsemen, the "B" is the scariest.

Trapper John

04-14-2014, 15:05

I'm surprised the fast growing 3rd world poor public health petri dish connected to the 1st world aspect wasn't worth the coverage.

It was, I just didn't mention it here, and it will be in the published proceedings.

Flagg

04-14-2014, 16:38

It was, I just didn't mention it here, and it will be in the published proceedings.

Cheers!

I think Kilcullen did a pretty good job articulating in layman's terms the deep interconnected nature of transnational crime emanating from Kingston, Jamaica.

And I can fully understand why he would need to limit the scope of his book to the urbanisation of guerrillas/insurgents mimicking global urbanization and their opportunistic partnerships with transnational illicit networks.

But having read the book combined with browsing through this thread on occasion has opened my eyes a bit to parallel biological threats that could intentionally or just naturally piggyback off of the same underlying legal commerce, illicit human trafficking networks, or terrorist activity.

As a layman I guess I see an analog to Kilcullen's book focused on the biological public health security threat of megaslums connected to the 1st world as something of potentially great value.

Thanks for sharing your SME.

InTheBlack

05-04-2014, 13:34

Does Tamiflu have any efficiency at preventing infection in the first place? I thought the stockpile strategy was to flood the area of first outbreak with Tamiflu to reduce the rate of infection, so fewer pre-symptomatic infected people will get away from the containment zone.

Of course, you have to keep doing this to each area of outbreak... but there should be fewer nodes if you started soon enough.

And if you can convince early symptomatic people to show up to get the Tamiflu /placebo -- you have a chance of isolating them. If there were a rapid method of determining the strain they had, they might be convinced to go to the hospital to be "treated" (ie isolated). In fact, the Government should LIE about that rapid typing Maguffin, and tell everyone who is infected that they have the high-mortality strain, in order to get them to comply with isolation.

Flagg

05-04-2014, 16:24

I wonder how much relevance Tamiflu still has on national pandemic planning:

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/9768461/Mass-dump-of-Tamiflu-a-bitter-pill-to-swallow

Down here it looks like a good chunk of our Tamiflu stockpiles have been tossed after hitting expiry, although it does sound like a deal was offered by Roche to swap out expired Tamiful one for one at half price.

IIRC when I looked at Tamiflu packaging quite a while's back it stated a 5 year shelf life. I would think there's a whole lot of Tamiflu stockpiles that have passed their expiry date.

Flagg

05-04-2014, 16:34

First confirmed case of MERS in the US:

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/may/04/first-us-mers-case-good-condition-indiana

US citizen, healthcare worker who had traveled to Saudi and contracted it there, symptomatic upon return to the US.

I wonder if there's been any high level discussion on diverting some TSA resources away from preventing kinetic events towards the prevention of biological/viral events?

I'm guessing investment in very rapid biological/viral detection technology with very short cycle times and high throughput could not only be a national security investment opportunity, but also a potentially very lucrative commercial investment opportunity.

Trapper John

05-04-2014, 17:09

I wonder how much relevance Tamiflu still has on national pandemic planning:

NONE!!! When compared to standard OTC treatment (Advil cold and flu for example) Tamiflu is not statistically different.

Trapper John

05-04-2014, 17:24

InTheBlack .........Tamiflu to reduce the rate of infection, so fewer pre-symptomatic infected people will get away from the containment zone.

Tamiflu has no effect on the infectivity of patients and no effect as compared to an OTC cold treatment like advil cold and flu. Governments around the world, including the US, have spent billions of $'s for a false sense of security. [see attachment in post #907]

InTheBlack

05-05-2014, 02:44

>I wonder if there's been any high level discussion on diverting some TSA resources away from preventing kinetic events towards the prevention of biological/viral events?

The question is, do they make a really cool looking Retention Level 3 holster for a microscope? :0

TSA is staffed by ex-cops & military; I don't think "scientist" is anywhere close to what their corporate culture will allow inside.

Trapper J-- "Infectivity of patients" is not what I mean. I'm asking if taking Tamiflu gives me an increased chance of not getting infected in the first place.

Trapper John

05-05-2014, 05:16

>

Trapper J-- "Infectivity of patients" is not what I mean. I'm asking if taking Tamiflu gives me an increased chance of not getting infected in the first place.

No effective prophylaxis, none, na da, nyet.

Trapper John

05-05-2014, 09:49

A new biologic has shown promise to prevent MERS-CoV infection in vitro.

http://www.dddmag.com/news/2014/05/biological-drug-works-against-mers-virus-lab?et_cid=3921847&et_rid=439265529&type=cta

Hemispherx Biopharma announced that one of its advanced stage biological products, Alferon N, significantly inhibited the replication of the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) virus in vitro.

PedOncoDoc

05-05-2014, 12:15

InTheBlack

Tamiflu has no effect on the infectivity of patients and no effect as compared to an OTC cold treatment like advil cold and flu. Governments around the world, including the US, have spent billions of $'s for a false sense of security. [see attachment in post #907]

But what of its use in immunocompromised patients? ;)

Trapper John

05-05-2014, 13:25

But what of its use in immunocompromised patients? ;)

Interesting point there DOC :D I haven't read any clinical studies with immunocompromised patients. Have you? Send me a citation if you have, I'd like to read it.

BTW, I have a paper to send you that I need your opinion. I have been thinking about GVH (see I do pay attention, at least sometimes :D). I think there may be a connection to what we are working on and once I can come up for air here, I will send you the paper and my thoughts.

TJ <over>

Pete

05-13-2015, 09:00

Interesting Update on the H5 series

Bird flu outbreak hits Nebraska poultry farm: USDA

http://news.yahoo.com/bird-flu-outbreak-hits-nebraska-poultry-farm-16th-204902887--sector.html

"Reuters) - The fast-spreading avian flu virus was confirmed for the first time in Nebraska, at a commercial egg-laying farm that housed a flock of 1.7 million chickens, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said on Tuesday.

The case in Dixon County, Nebraska, brings the number of states affected by the outbreak to 16, and the U.S. tally of birds that have either died or will be killed to 32 million.

The U.S. poultry and egg industry has been grappling for months with the biggest outbreak on record of avian influenza in the United States...."

tonyz

06-16-2018, 10:01

Perhaps a bit of sensational journalism ?

But, there was some good discussion in the past on this topic and the possibilities in the Pandemic and Be Prepared threads.

DISEASE X’ FEARS Terrifying new strain of bird flu that kills over a THIRD of those who contract it discovered in China amid fears of new global pandemic
The newly formed virus, named H7N9, has killed over 600 people in China
By Mark Hodge
Sun
15th June 2018, 3:19 pm Updated: 15th June 2018, 7:08 pm

A NEW strain of deadly bird flu which kills 38 per cent of those infected and could spark a global pandemic has been identified in China.

Scientists around the world believe the new pathogen, dubbed “Disease X”, could be as lethal as 1918 Spanish flu which killed up to 100million people.

Professor Jonathan Van-Tam, deputy chief medical officer for England, told The Telegraph that virus H7N9, which is circulating poultry in China, could cause a global outbreak.

He said: “[H7N9] is an example of another virus which has proven its ability to transmit from birds to humans.

“It’s possible that it could be the cause of the next pandemic.”

In China, the deadly pathogen has killed 623 of the 1,625 people which have been infected.

While the virus cannot yet be passed from person to person, experts believe it is only three mutations away from being able to spread from human contact.

The symptoms of H7N9 include a high fever, cough and shortness of breath which can then develop into pneumonia.

Once the disease has developed, those infected develop acute respiratory distress syndrome, septic shock and organ failure.

Older people, pregnant women and those with existing health problems are most at risk, according to the World Health Organization.

Bird flu can spread to people when they have direct contact with the infection.

https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/news/2790957/terrifying-new-strain-of-bird-flu-that-kills-nearly-half-of-those-who-contract-it-discovered-in-china-amid-fears-of-new-global-pandemic/

CDC:

Asian Lineage Avian Influenza A (H7N9) Virus
Background

Human infections with an Asian lineage avian influenza A (H7N9) virus (“Asian H7N9”) were first reported in China in March 2013. Annual epidemics of sporadic human infections with Asian H7N9 viruses in China have been reported since that time. China is currently experiencing its 6th epidemic of Asian H7N9 human infections. Since October 1, 2017, there has been only 1 reported human infection.

During the fifth epidemic, from October 1, 2016 through September 30, 2017, the World Health Organization (WHO) reported 766 human infections with Asian H7N9 virus, making it the largest H7N9 epidemic to date. As of December 7, 2017, the total cumulative number of human infections with Asian lineage H7N9 reported by WHO since 2013 is 1565. During epidemics one through five, about 39 percent of people confirmed with Asian H7N9 virus infection died.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/h7n9-virus.htm

eramnes

06-17-2018, 06:54

I have been following this story as well since it showed up on Drudge a couple days ago. Looks like something to keep an eye on.

While the virus cannot yet be passed from person to person, experts believe it is only three mutations away from being able to spread from human contact.
I would love to see the actual report from their "experts", since I can't seem to find a reference to this anywhere. Three mutations is awfully specific, although I am not an epidemiologist.

That being said, during the last major outbreak of H7N9 in 2016, even the WHO did not rule out possible H2H transmission, albeit in very limited cases:
There were two clusters reported in the fifth epidemic from Jiangsu and Anhui provinces, and limited human-to-human transmission between two individuals cannot be ruled out. Although the genetic markers of mammalian adaptation and antiviral resistance of virus strains that were isolated in the fifth epidemic remained similar to earlier epidemics.
http://ojs.wpro.who.int/ojs/index.php/wpsar/article/view/521/733

H7N9 appears to be responsive to Tamiflu but this only reduces the severity of the infection, it doesn't cure it:
Laboratory testing shows that influenza antiviral medicines called neuraminidase inhibitors (e.g. oseltamivir, zanamivir) are effective against H7N9 but another class of antivirals, the adamantanes, are not. Among people with H7N9 infection in China, some of those who received early treatment with neuraminidase inhibitors have developed milder illness than those treated later on.
http://www.who.int/influenza/human_animal_interface/faq_H7N9/en/

I haven't boarded up the windows yet but it's worth keeping an eye on, especially if there has been limited H2H transmission. I don't know that any organization has that answer right now. It will be worth watching what FAO says in their upcoming June 27th report: http://www.fao.org/ag/againfo/programmes/en/empres/H7N9/Situation_update.html

Penn

01-21-2020, 14:01

H1N1 Swine Flu - iirc correctly, swine virus is the most dangerous for humans transference
The youth had travelled to Isreal, the virus, according to the article attacked her organs, the article also states the virus has mutated A-H1N1

https://www.foxnews.com/health/texas-woman-flu-death-trip-israel

mugwump

01-23-2020, 22:08

Howdy all, it’s been a while. Might as well put this here even though the Hunan coronavirus — 2019-nCoV is the legit name — is not an influenza virus.

First things first. I'm not involved in any vaccine efforts this time...don’t know if anyone is yet...so I have zero inside info. All I have is public sources.

Ro, the number of new infections you can expect from each case, is currently estimated to be 1.7 to 2.5. WHO is at the low end and Imperial College in London is the higher. If it is 2.0 or higher, and that seems possible from the doubling of cases and deaths we seem to be seeing day to day, then that’s...not optimal. One guy passes it to two others, each of those passing it on to two others, each...well you get the drift. Geometric progression. There are reports of two super-shedders: Typhoid Mary individuals who shed extraordinary numbers of viruses and who are extraordinarily infectious. The concern is this might be a feature of the virus.

China is saying the virus has currently passed through four generations, others say six. Healthcare workers are contracting the disease. People are posting videos of HCWs collapsing in the ER. China says from exhaustion. Who knows. Gutsy folk either way.

Lethality is a total guess. Deaths are fairly easy to count but nobody knows how many mild cases are out there, or even if there are mild cases, and until you know the denominator you can’t calculate the butcher's bill. So, an unknown.

From what I’ve seen China is much better prepared for this than the West. People collapsing in the street are being placed in disposable isolation tubes for transport to the hospital. I don’t even know if those exist in the US.

Read between the lines. WHO is conservative in not calling a pandemic emergency but they are terribly worried about medical supply chains as 90% of the world's drugs come from China and SE Asia. They don’t want to cause a panic and kill a bunch of people from lack of medicine. I want my MTV—and my lisinopril.

Rock. Hard place.

China seems about a week late; hopefully not a dollar short. I honestly think the top wants to show the world they can be the good guys but their hierarchical lower ranks didn’t get the word until last week. They seem to be cooperating with world health depts and are sharing isolates. Their travel bans and quarantine measures have been stringent, especially given the impact on the economy with the lunar new year and all.

For even handed reporting search CIDRAP. Anything from US science journalist Laurie Garrett can be taken to the bank.

Over and out.

Last hard class

01-23-2020, 22:30

Snakes to humans? I saw The first known case has hit the northwest. CNY starts this week and I suspect is going to send this everywhere.

They are screening everyone at LAX arriving from Wuhan area but not if you had a layover somewhere else.

I’m skeptical we will contain this.

LHC

bblhead672

01-24-2020, 12:04

Apparently screening at DFW as well, according to a friend who works at a lab that is involved with the testing.

EricV

01-24-2020, 14:45

From the tube that must not be mentioned...

https://www.xxxxxxx.com/watch?v=VLp8CHeKQkI

Golf1echo

01-24-2020, 18:24

From the tube that must not be mentioned...

https://www.xxxxxxx.com/watch?v=VLp8CHeKQkI

I’ve been curious about “The Mandate of Heaven” mentioned in the video. It used to be when the Yellow River flooded and many died the Emperor was killed...as a mandate. While much has changed and Xi Jinping insisted on greater powers before taking office it makes one wonder about the evolutions China has in it’s future... Sustainable ? Would we continue to trade (food, medicine, merchandise, etc...) with a country in the midst of a highly contagious pandemic? Given that much of the population has moved from the country to concentrated cities with sub standard living conditions, questionable sanitation, and little influence on the Communists Party they and most likely everyone else will certainly have a challenge.

InTheBlack

01-24-2020, 19:15

What do we know about countering the course of this virus? Similar or not to what was discussed years ago - Statins, ACE inhibitors... ? What should we plan on acquiring quickly if this goes badly?

Badger52

01-25-2020, 06:35

They are screening everyone at LAX arriving from Wuhan area but not if you had a layover somewhere else.
I don't (and won't) travel commercial air anymore but what constitutes "screening" these days? There are a CONEX full of things that someone can have, answer "No" to the question of "Do you have a fever?" and be otherwise asymptomatic for a couple weeks.

tonyz

01-25-2020, 07:01

What should we plan on acquiring quickly if this goes badly?

Shovels and lime.

mugwump

01-25-2020, 10:51

What do we know about countering the course of this virus? Similar or not to what was discussed years ago - Statins, ACE inhibitors... ? What should we plan on acquiring quickly if this goes badly?

Entry into cells is via angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 receptors. ACE2 inhibitors are speculated to help. Speculation.

Some epidemiologists outside China are now calculating R0 (R naught) up to 6. (For perspective, measles R0 is 12-19.). The stats are beyond me.

Fever looks to be the only reliable early symptom. Later, dry cough. No sniffles. Vomiting and diarrhea are rare. There are documented asymptomatic cases. So, highly contagious and sometimes asymptomatic. Challenging to contain.

Deaths are due to acute respiratory distress syndrome—ARDS—mediated by cytokine cascade. Remarkably similar to pandemic flu.

Genetic drift analysis indicates this started in November. There’s constant gene sequencing looking for mutation. Mutation could make it more or less dangerous.

Primary source is bats, where it circulates asymptomatically. The secondary source is some other unknown species from which the first human was infected.

Fatality rate may be much lower than it appears from official sources because there are probably tens of thousands of mild/moderate/asymptomatic cases. But then again, there are accusations that China is hiding accurate fatality stats. So...the numerator and denominator are both in doubt. Nobody knows. Well, maybe Xi knows.

Genetic analysis and diagnostic test development are moving at stunning speed as compared to even five years ago.

IMO, social distancing, barring divine intervention, will be the only viable strategy. From the epidemiological standpoint this genie is out of the bottle and will play out like the Australian wildfires...it will burn through the available fuel before it’s over, at least in China.

mugwump

01-25-2020, 11:26

If you want to slog through the Twitterverse, @IntelCrab is getting primary tweets out of China and is passing on the Weibo reports (the Chinese Twitter) that they can glean before they’re taken down by censors.

Some of the HCW tweets are heartrending. They’re speculating 100,000 infections just in Hunan.

Videos of highways blocked with rubble, bridges barricaded, angry reports that 900,000 “privileged” and party members leaving by train in violation of quarantine, city scenes with bodies in the streets, nurses collapsing with coughing fits...

mugwump

01-25-2020, 11:56

Mods delete if I’m violating house rules; I haven’t posted for quite a while and have lost touch.

Below is representative. Make sure your speaker is on and that you tap the tweet and activate the speaker icon there. There’s debate whether this is legit or agitprop. It’s consistent with other reports and if it isn’t legit she deserves an Oscar.

While it’s easy to slag the Chinese govt, this is exactly what we’d see in a US hospital. Matter of fact, it would be worse here because our supply chains for medical products start in Hunan and Guangdong provinces. I’m guessing our just-in-time is going to segue into too-late.

Does anyone imagine the Chinese will continue shipment of hospital supplies to the US if their own citizens are dying wholesale?

https://twitter.com/wise_lol/status/1221057629109334016

mugwump

01-25-2020, 12:28

I don't (and won't) travel commercial air anymore but what constitutes "screening" these days? There are a CONEX full of things that someone can have, answer "No" to the question of "Do you have a fever?" and be otherwise asymptomatic for a couple weeks.

$8 remote infrared sensor guns. Nobody asks. At least in Chicago from what I’m told. It’s worth a try but unlikely to work as there are afebrile, asymptomatic cases.

mugwump

01-25-2020, 12:29

Cytokine storm. No wonder she was sobbing...

https://twitter.com/postapocalyptr/status/1221080415018065921?s=20

mugwump

01-25-2020, 12:42

It seems some think Chinese cities are third world shitholes packed with tenements. Yeah, nah. Maybe it's squalid in the countryside, dunno never been, but not in the first and second tier cities of which there are hundreds. Transportation, infrastructure, public buildings, apartments, parks...all top notch. When I flew back to the States from Shenzhen it’s Chicago that suffered in comparison.

Don’t kid yourself that we're better prepared

mugwump

01-25-2020, 18:33

Concrete, practical advice on avoiding infection from Laurie Garrett. You must read this in a computer browser, not iOS on a mobile device, in order to 'X' out of the paywall dialog. Pass it on.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/01/25/wuhan-coronavirus-safety-china/

EricV

01-26-2020, 17:21

mugwump

01-26-2020, 17:25

Containing new coronavirus may not be feasible, experts say, as they warn of possible sustained global spread (https://www.statnews.com/2020/01/26/containing-new-coronavirus-may-not-be-feasible-experts-say/)

Wuhan coronavirus: China was warned in 2017 that a deadly virus could escape its level 4 biohazard lab (https://meaww.com/wuhan-coronavirus-warned-2017-lab-wuhan-deadly-diseases-escape-lab-level-4-safety-scientists)

Every bit of new data is bad: 15% fatality rate, R0 of 3.5-4, 14 day asymptomatic incubation period where the patient is infectious. Why golly, it almost seems engineered.

Wait...what’s that building 7 miles from the wet market that was announced as ground zero? Is it...is it China’s premier biocontainment (biowarfare?) research facility?

I’m sure it’s just a coincidence.

mugwump

01-26-2020, 17:28

Universities must be considered acute danger points given the 14 day infectious and asymptomatic incubation period and academics' frequent travel to China.

Confirmed cases at UCLA and ASU

mugwump

01-26-2020, 17:31

Q: What disease goes best with coronavirus?

mugwump

01-26-2020, 17:46

A: Lyme disease

mugwump

01-26-2020, 17:50

The more I read the sleazier this gets. Effing Chinese.

Zerohedge has to be taken with a whole shaker of salt but they sometimes get things right IMO.

Did China Steal Coronavirus From Canada And Weaponize It? (https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/did-china-steal-coronavirus-canada-and-weaponize-it)

Badger52

01-26-2020, 18:35

A: Lyme diseaseHunh.

InTheBlack

01-27-2020, 00:16

WHO page on the virus. Has link to daily Situation Report download:
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019

So 16.4% of cases "severely ill:"

snip
26JAN20
Of the 1,975 confirmed cases (excluding Hong Kong SAR, Macau SAR and Taipei), 324 cases have been reported as severely ill2 .

snip
2 Severe illness: According to any of the following criteria:
(1) shortness of breath;
(2) respiratory rate more than 30 bpm;
(3) hypoxemia;
(4) chest X-ray with multi-lobar infiltrates or pulmonary infiltration progressed more than 50% within 24 - 48 hours.

PSM

01-27-2020, 00:27

Nearly 1000 posts on PS.com about Pandemic Flu since 2006 and how many have actually died? This is no different than the Climate Change hysteria.

Pete

01-27-2020, 04:27

Best to be informed and aware.

Just like with a hurricane - I'd like to get to the store and get my supplies before the shelves are picked clean.

Divemaster

01-27-2020, 07:48

Moved to new Wuhan Coronavirus thread.

mugwump

01-27-2020, 10:45

It would appear that Chinese hygiene is pretty lacking in spite of top notch cities...

https://www.xxxxxxx.com/watch?v=lk5XkhUKMDM

Many thanks for the input on this situation.

True. You won’t find a soap dispenser in any Chinese public toilet and men and women of a certain age hawk and spit all the time, sometimes indoors. It’s disgusting.

InTheBlack

01-31-2020, 02:12

Some growth-rate charts by a financial data company:
https://www.biancoresearch.com/coronavirus-growth-rates-and-market-reactions-2/

28JAN20
Summary
The growth in coronavirus infections has continued along a geometric progression for the last 12 days. Should it continue along this path, infection cases could approach 100,000 in a week.

Comment

The following charts were constructed from the daily update from the National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China.

The blue line in the chart below shows the actual number of reported coronavirus cases stands at 4,515 as of January 27.

The orange line is a simple progression that assumes a 53% increase in the cases every day. Or, one person infects 2 to 2.5 people. So it is a simple multiplier, nothing more. This is known as R0 (R-Naught), or the infection rate. Note the chart is a log scale.

The reported number of infections perfectly track this simple multiplier. This is how viral inflections growth, along a geometric path.

The chart below shows that the virus has tracked this growth rate 12 straight days. If this track is not altered, the number of reported cases will top 16,000 by Friday.

InTheBlack

01-31-2020, 02:27

EricV

01-31-2020, 07:47

Is alcohol hand sanitizer sufficient to kill virii?

I see there are BAC based hand sanitizers (Benzalkonium Chloride), and one using something they call BAC-D which claims to have an ionic charge added to it, which disrupts cell walls. And to remain active on the skin for hours.

You can get 2% BAC disinfectant by the gallon at any big box hardware store, in the janitorial supply section.

That's a good question and one I'd like to hear answered. Seems 70% alcohol is the sweet spot from what I've read. Alcohol seems to need water to get into Viruses and such. Higher concentrations don't work as well. Alcohol works well on some, and not on others, like rabies. Higher concentrations of Alcohol are also flammable

InTheBlack

02-02-2020, 15:39

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/01/mining-coronavirus-genomes-clues-outbreak-s-origins

Mining coronavirus genomes for clues to the outbreak’s origins
By Jon CohenJan. 31, 2020 , 6:20 PM

SNIP
The viral sequences, most researchers say, also knock down the idea the pathogen came from a virology institute in Wuhan.

SNIP
PHYLOGENETIC TREE IMAGE
That’s one reason why many scientists suspect there’s an “intermediary” host species—or several—between bats and 2019-nCoV.

According to Bedford’s analysis, the bat coronavirus sequence that Shi Zheng-Li’s team highlighted, dubbed RaTG13, differs from 2019-nCoV by nearly 1100 nucleotides. On nextstrain.org, a site he co-founded, Bedford has created coronavirus family trees (example below) that include bat, civet, SARS, and 2019-nCoV sequences. (The trees are interactive—by dragging a computer mouse over them, it’s easy to see the differences and similarities between the sequences.)

SNIP
Strong evidence suggests the marketplace played an early role in spreading 2019-nCoV, but whether it was the origin of the outbreak remains uncertain.

SNIP
Conspiracy theories also abound. A CBC News report about the Canadian government deporting Chinese scientists who worked in a Winnipeg lab that studies dangerous pathogens was distorted on social media to suggest that they were spies who had smuggled out coronaviruses. The Wuhan Institute of Virology, which is the premier lab in China that studies bat and human coronaviruses, has also come under fire. “Experts debunk fringe theory linking China’s coronavirus to weapons research,” read a headline on a story in The Washington Post that focused on the facility.

SNIP
disease ecologist Peter Daszak of the EcoHealth Alliance, dismissed Ebright’s conjecture. “Every time there’s an emerging disease, a new virus, the same story comes out: This is a spillover or the release of an agent or a bioengineered virus,” Daszak says. “It’s just a shame. It seems humans can’t resist controversy and these myths, yet it’s staring us right in the face. There’s this incredible diversity of viruses in wildlife and we’ve just scratched the surface. Within that diversity, there will be some that can infect people and within that group will be some that cause illness.”

Daszak and Shi’s group have for 8 years been trapping bats in caves around China to sample their feces and blood for viruses. He says they have sampled more than 10,000 bats and 2000 other species. They have found some 500 novel coronaviruses, about 50 of which fall relatively close to the SARS virus on the family tree